College Football

Monday, December 28, 2015

Stew: Steelers Loss Injures Playoff Chances

Steelers Loss Injures Playoff Chances
By: Bradley Stewart

    A horrible loss to the divisional rival Baltimore Ravens has hurt Pittsburgh more than any injury they have faced this season.  Pittsburgh has had its fair share of injuries this year: Ben Roethlisberger, Maurkice Pouncey, James Harrison, Ryan Shazier, and Le'veon Bell, among others.  But the Ravens have received the injury bug more often this season, a great feat in what has been a smelly feet kind of year.  Pittsburgh came into the game playing like the 2007 New England Patriots, putting up points and doing it in a hurry.  The Steelers' defense did their job, but the NFL's best offense imploded.  If you want one play to define the game, look at Baltimore's Jimmy Smith's 101-yard pick six.  That play ended up being negated because of a neutral zone infraction, but nonetheless, it was a defining play that described the game.

      Coming into the game, Pittsburgh controlled its destiny, with two games against stiff, but bad teams in the NFL.  With the loss, Pittsburgh will need some help to get into the postseason.  Most people believe that the only way the Steel Curtain will find a team in the NFL Playoffs is if the Jets fall against the Bills.  That is not true, but it is the best way they can get in.
      As of now, the Steelers have two ways to get into the post-season, both scenarios require Pittsburgh to win against the detestable Cleveland Browns.  Teams with losing records are 11-7 vs. Pittsburgh while Mike Tomlin has been the head coach, which must change for future seasons.  These are the two scenarios, keep in mind that in both Pittsburgh must win against the Browns:

SCENARIO 1:
New York Jets LOSE vs. the Bills.

SCENARIO 2:
Denver Broncos LOSE vs. the Bengals (MNF for Week 16,  CIN up 14-3 at half)
Denver Broncos LOSE vs. the Chargers.

In the second scenario, Pittsburgh will receive the 5th seed if the Jets lose and the 6th seed if the Jets win.

           Looking at these scenarios, I see Scenario 1 as the best option for Pittsburgh.  Buffalo defeated the Jets earlier in the season, and although the Bills do not have anything to play for, they still have the motive to knock their cross-state rival out of the playoffs.  We saw this just last week against Baltimore.  Even though the Steelers are clearly the better team, the Ravens motivation won them the game.
           Scenario 2 is not as publicized, probably because it is unlikely that it will happen.  Asking a team as talented as the Denver Broncos, is a tricky task.  If Brock Osweiler's injury affects him for Week 17, then there could be some hope for San Diego, but the Chargers poor play this year is not a positive sign for the Steelers.

The following is how the bracket would look based on FiveThirtyEight's model:




         Regardless of if we play in January, the season still must be considered a success for the performance of the team through all the key injuries.  Nonetheless, we will still be left with what could have been.

          I will leave you with this,  in 2013 Pittsburgh needed multiple things to happen to get in and they came up inches short and maybe even a whistle away from going to the playoffs (I won't get into that, just search "Chiefs-Chargers 2013 officiating").  Anything is possible in the NFL, and the Steelers know that better than anybody.

Happy New Year's and Go Steelers, Bills, Bengals, and Chargers!


         

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