College Football

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Penn State-Ohio State: Three Keys to Victory

It's the biggest game of the year. Number Two vs. Number Six. Whoever wins could be on their way to the College Football Playoff. Whoever loses will likely have to hope for the Rose Bowl. It's Penn State and Ohio State. Let's talk about what the Nittany Lions need to do to win this heavyweight battle.

Key #1: Protect Trace McSorley
Photo creds to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Penn State doesn't have a lot of weak spots. One of its weaknesses, however, is the offensive line.

The big uglies have not been a strong suit for the Nittany Lions over the past few years, and this season is no exception. While guys like Will Fries show potential, there is still work to be done. Penn State's line took a step forward last week, containing the vaunted Michigan defense pretty well. It will need a similar performance today. As amazing as Saquon Barkley is, if Trace McSorley is unable to do his job well for whatever reason, Penn State won't win the game. For McSorley to be at his best, he will need help from the O-Line.

Key #2: Pressure J.T. Barrett. 
Photo creds to Bleacher Report

In Ohio State's past three losses, Barrett has played poorly. That isn't a coincidence.
In the Buckeyes' lone loss of 2017 to Oklahoma, Barrett was awful, going 19-35 and throwing his lone interception of the season. Since then, the senior quarterback has been lights out. In October, Barrett is 47-64 with eight touchdown passes, 0 INT's and a 191.6 passer rating. Barrett is dangerous, and the more time he has in the pocket, the better he is.

To make life difficult for Barrett, Penn State's pass rush, led by the defensive end tandem of Ryan Bucholz and Shareef Miller, has to hold its own against Ohio State's big uglies and force Barrett to make snap decisions. The Nittany Lions have been excellent defensively, and Saturday is their biggest test. They will need to take a page from last year's upset over the Buckeyes and swarm Barrett. Otherwise, he can make some big plays.

Key #3: Saquon Barkley is the best player on the field. 
Barkley is the best player in the country. But there are some other studs on the other side, particularly Buckeyes runningback J.K. Dobbins. Penn State will need to play its best game of the year to win today and to do that, Barkley will have to do Barkley things and be better than Dobbins, Barrett, or anybody else on the field.
The Nittany Lions have proven that they can win without Barkley being a major factor. But they haven't beaten a team like Ohio State without #26 being a beast.

Final Prediction
Photo creds to SI

I'm nervous about this game. Sounds crazy, right? But Penn State is not supposed to win. They are touchdown underdogs and with good reason. The Buckeyes are on a roll, playing at Ohio Stadium, and have revenge on their minds from Marcus Allen's blocked kick and Grant Haley's return.
I think the difference in this game will be the quarterback play.  Ohio State's defense will pressure McSorley, and that will create problems for Penn State. On the other hand, Barrett will come up huge in the biggest game of the year, and he will be the one who puts Ohio State on a clear path to the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State 35, Penn State 21 

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