College Football

Saturday, December 29, 2018

College Football Playoff: Keys for each team to advance

By Joe Smeltzer 
It's playoff time. Here are three things that each of the four semifinalists can do to advance to the national championship game.

Oklahoma
1. Win the battle up front
Replacing Rodney Anderson, Kennedy Brooks has played a big part in the Sooners' record-breaking attack (Photo creds to The Norman Transcript).

Most of the hype surrounding Alabama centers around Tua Tagovailoa. Yet on the other side of the ball, the Tide have possibly college football's most dominant player in defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. By the same token, most conversations about Oklahoma focus on Kyler Murray, but the Sooners offense isn't just limited to the Heisman trophy winner, however. Oklahoma also has arguably the best rushing attack and best offensive line in the country to complement its quarterback.

Pardon the cliche, but "the trenches" could play a big part in who advances to the national championship game. It will be up to the Sooners' line-- particularly guards Ben Powers, Dru Samia and Creed Humphrey-- to open holes for running backs Kennedy Brooks and Tre Sermon and take some of the load off or Murray.


2.Pressure Tua
Photo creds to Sports Illustrated 

According to Pro Football Focus, Tua has a 147.2 passer rating under a clean pocket, which is .7 behind Murray. It's likely that one of those two will finish with the highest rating since PFF College began in 2014. It's no secret that Alabama has a much better defense than Oklahoma, so if the Sooners defense doesn't get pressure on Tua, that will be a problem regardless of how healthy Tagovailoa is.


3. Force a turnover or two
Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray leads the team with three INT's (Photo creds to 247sports.com).

The Sooners defense gave up 56 points the last time it faced an elite quarterback when West Virginia's Will Grier went off for 539 yards in the regular season finale the night after Thanksgiving. Despite Grier's performance, Oklahoma won its regular season finale 59-56. Ironically, it was two defensive touchdowns by the Sooners that made the difference, so as bad as it was, Oklahoma's defense ultimately won the game.

Oklahoma will be up against another offensive Saturday, and will likely give up a lot of points. It's also likely that the Sooners will score a decent amount, so don't expect anything resembling defensive struggle.

For the Sooners to have a chance, their defense doesn't have to be great, but they might need to make a play that swings the momentum of the evening.

2. Pound the rock
Najee Harris is an underrated part of Alabama's offense (photo creds to Saturday Down South)

With all the talk about Tua and Alabama's stellar receiving corps, people forget that the Tide can run the football as well.

Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs all are capable backs, and Hurts will contribute with his legs as well if he sees action. Since we don't know how much Tagovailoa's ankle has healed, the Tide might have to go to the ground more than usual, and it's important for their trio of tailbacks to be up to the task.


3. Contain Kyler Murray 
Photo creds to USA Today

Alabama won't stop Murray, but what they can do is limit him, and the best way to accomplish that is to take away big plays.

Like most Big 12 teams, Oklahoma loves the deep ball, and a lot of its scoring plays are of 60+ yards. If Alabama can force the Sooners into uncomfortable third-down situations, its chances of containing college footballs best offense from doing what it does best will be much improved.

Prediction
Of the two semifinal games, this should be the more entertaining one since both teams will score a lot of points. At the end of the day, Alabama is the better, more complete football team. Oklahoma's defense folded against an SEC team last year in this spot, and I expect it to do the same thing this year against a better SEC team.

Alabama 48, Oklahoma 31

Notre Dame 
1. The first 45 minutes
Photo creds to TribLive

Clemson hasn't had to play in a lot of close games this season, while the Irish had several of them.

Since a scare against Syracuse in late September, the Tigers haven't had many stressful moments in the fourth quarter, so it's worth questioning if their endurance would hold up late in a close game since they've been tested far less than Notre Dame.

If the Irish can come out of the gates strong and keep it close deep in the second half, that bodes well for them, as most of Clemson's games are over before well before the final 15 minutes.

2. Ian Book
It's the biggest game of Ian Books life. Let's see if the Irish QB can get it done (Photo creds to USA Today)

Clemson's defensive front is the best in college football with or without Dexter Lawrence. Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey have graduated from Notre Dame's offensive line, so I don't like its chances of getting much done on the ground. That leaves it up to quarterback Ian Book to have a big day. Be ready, son.


3. Special Teams
Justin Yoon could answer a lot of prayers today (Photo creds to One Foot Down)

Notre Dame's Justin Yoon is one of the best kickers in college football, having converted 16 of 20 field goals, several of which from beyond 40 yards. The Irish's only prayer of winning would be in a tight game. Like, a  really tight game. In those type of contests, as the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown us this season, it could come down to the kicker, and if that's the case, the Irish are in good hands.

Clemson 
1. Next man up
Clemson lost a hoss, but another hoss is taking his place (Photo creds to 247Sports.com). 

Because Lawrence failed his drug test, the Tigers are without one of the best defensive players in college football. Luckily, Clemson has plenty of depth at defensive tackle.

Albert Huggins is an NFL talent who will get his shot to breakout playing in Lawrence's absence. While Lawrence's presence is a big one to lose, there's no reason the Tigers defensive line can't carry on.

2. Don't get worn out
Tying into one of Notre Dame's keys, Clemson hasn't played a nail biter since September, and that was when it was down to its third-string quarterback. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, the Tigers must have the endurance to move on to the national championship game.

3. Come out of the gates strong
Clemson is the better team, as evidenced by the fact that the Tigers are two-touchdown favorites.

As the favorite, its important for Clemson to play well from the outset and not let Notre Dame hang around. If the Tigers are able to do that, this could get ugly.

Prediction
I think this game will be closer than some are expecting, but the favorite still comes out on top.

Clemson's defense will rally around Dexter Lawrence and play an inspired game, and Notre Dame fans will be very frustrated that the offense let them down. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence won't play his best game, but he and running back Travis Etienne will make enough plays to get the Tigers another date with Bama.

Clemson 23, Notre Dame 10.

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