Good teams win, great teams cover: It's (college) playoff time

It's time for some picks against the spread. Let's get into it

Jeff 
College 

Bama(-14) over Oklahoma 
Alabama's  defense will lose this high scoring affair

Note Dame(+12.5) over Clemson
Clemson is overrated

Georgia(-12.5) over Texas

Washington (+6.5) over Ohio State

LSU(-7.5) over UCF

NFL

Ravens -5.5 over Browns

Bengals +14.5 over Steelers

Colts -3.5 over Titans

Chargers -7 over Denver

Ryan 
College 

Clemson -13 over ND
ND gets exposed as the wannabes that they are.

OK +14 against Alabama
I think this one will be closer than people think, and closer than the title game.  OK can score at will and will put up points.  Bama struggles somewhat offensively with a less than 100 percent Tua. Tide by 3.

Ohio State -6.5 over Washington
Urban goes out in style.

Texas +13 against UGA
Georgia feels gipped by the playoff committee and doesn’t show up to play.

LSU -7.5 over UCF

We can finally stop talking about UCF when they lose to a middle of the pack SEC team by 21. 

NFL
Browns +5.5 over Ravens. 
The best team in football wins handily on the road to oust the ratbirds from playoff contention.  Baker throws only 1 TD but effectively manages the offense to 24 points and a 24-13 win on the road as the Browns D forces Lama Jackson to throw, which he doesn't do well.

Bengals +14.5 against Steelers 
I think Pittsburgh wins by 10 in front of an empty stadium as all fans are at the bar wearing Cleveland jerseys.

Titans +3.5 over Colts.  
Andrew Luck struggles in outdoor December weather and the Titans win a low scoring affair on the back of Derrick Henry.

Denver +7 against LAC

Phillip Rivers struggles again against a solid defensive line.  The chargers stumble into the playoffs where they will be eliminated in the WC game by Pittsburgh.

Brad 
College
Clemson -13 over Notre Dame
Clemson has been overrated in years past, but this is the best Tigers team we’ve seen by far.

Oklahoma +14 over Alabama
It’s hard from a betting standpoint to not take fourteen points and Kyler Murray.

Ohio State -6.5 over Washington
Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes will play as if they have something to prove.

Kentucky +6.5 over Penn State
Penn State sucks.

NFL
Ravens -5.5 over Browns 
Cleveland hasn't beat a winning team since Gregg Williams took over as coach.

Bengals +14.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers dominate but a last-second touchdown makes the game a little closer than it should be.

Titans +3.5 over Colts 
Tennessee wins the spread battle when the Colts and Titans tie.

Joe
College 
My playoff picks are up on this site. Check it out. As for the rest...

Penn State -6.5 over Kentucky 
Kentucky's a decent football team, nothing more nothing less. James Franklin somewhat salvages what's been a fairly quiet season in Happy Valley by picking up his tenth win.

Stanford -4.5 over Pitt
No Bryce Love, no problem. KJ Costello is a much better quarterback than Kenny Pickett, and that will be the difference in the Sun Bowl.

NFL 
Bengals +14.5 over Steelers
I can't trust this Steelers team to blow anybody out. They should win, but they won't cover.

Patriots -13.5 over Jets
Come on now.

Giants -6 over Cowboys
Dallas has nothing to play for, so the Cowboys will take it easy. The Giants, on the other hand, have a chance to finish 6-10, which isn't too bad considering how they started the season,

49ers + 10 over Rams
Without Todd Gurley, I see San Fran keeping it close on the road.

Rutz 
College 
Georgia -11 over Texas
I think the Bulldogs will be out for blood in this one, and Texas won't be able to keep the UGA offense contained. Georgia wins by at least two touchdowns.

Texas A&M -5 over NC State.
The SEC always gets it done in the upper-tier bowls. Jimbo Fisher will have them ready.

UCF +7.5 over LSU
The Tigers aren't that great and they could easily screw this one up. When in doubt, take the points.

Alabama -14 over Oklahoma
The Sooners don't have the defensive capability to stop the Tide. They'll get out ahead early and then run them into the ground.

ND +13 over Clemson
Clemson has hardly been tested all year. Notre Dame is easily it's best opponent, so the Tigers could be upset if they aren't careful.

NFL
LA Rams -10 over San Francisco
The Rams take care of business to nail down the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Cincinnati +14.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers should churn out a win in this one but two touchdowns is too steep for me.

Atlanta pick'em over TB
The Falcons finish a terrible season on an upswing with a decisive win over the Bucs.

Carolina +7 over Saints
They're facing a backup QB and New Orleans will be operating at less than optimal effort having clinched the top seed in the NFC.

College Football Playoff: Keys for each team to advance

By Joe Smeltzer 
It's playoff time. Here are three things that each of the four semifinalists can do to advance to the national championship game.

Oklahoma
1. Win the battle up front

Replacing Rodney Anderson, Kennedy Brooks has played a big part in the Sooners' record-breaking attack (Photo creds to The Norman Transcript).

Most of the hype surrounding Alabama centers around Tua Tagovailoa. Yet on the other side of the ball, the Tide have possibly college football's most dominant player in defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. By the same token, most conversations about Oklahoma focus on Kyler Murray, but the Sooners offense isn't just limited to the Heisman trophy winner, however. Oklahoma also has arguably the best rushing attack and best offensive line in the country to complement its quarterback.

Pardon the cliche, but "the trenches" could play a big part in who advances to the national championship game. It will be up to the Sooners' line-- particularly guards Ben Powers, Dru Samia and Creed Humphrey-- to open holes for running backs Kennedy Brooks and Tre Sermon and take some of the load off or Murray.


2.Pressure Tua

Photo creds to Sports Illustrated 

According to Pro Football Focus, Tua has a 147.2 passer rating under a clean pocket, which is .7 behind Murray. It's likely that one of those two will finish with the highest rating since PFF College began in 2014. It's no secret that Alabama has a much better defense than Oklahoma, so if the Sooners defense doesn't get pressure on Tua, that will be a problem regardless of how healthy Tagovailoa is.


3. Force a turnover or two

Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray leads the team with three INT's (Photo creds to 247sports.com).

The Sooners defense gave up 56 points the last time it faced an elite quarterback when West Virginia's Will Grier went off for 539 yards in the regular season finale the night after Thanksgiving. Despite Grier's performance, Oklahoma won its regular season finale 59-56. Ironically, it was two defensive touchdowns by the Sooners that made the difference, so as bad as it was, Oklahoma's defense ultimately won the game.

Oklahoma will be up against another offensive Saturday, and will likely give up a lot of points. It's also likely that the Sooners will score a decent amount, so don't expect anything resembling defensive struggle.

For the Sooners to have a chance, their defense doesn't have to be great, but they might need to make a play that swings the momentum of the evening.

2. Pound the rock

Najee Harris is an underrated part of Alabama's offense (photo creds to Saturday Down South)

With all the talk about Tua and Alabama's stellar receiving corps, people forget that the Tide can run the football as well.

Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs all are capable backs, and Hurts will contribute with his legs as well if he sees action. Since we don't know how much Tagovailoa's ankle has healed, the Tide might have to go to the ground more than usual, and it's important for their trio of tailbacks to be up to the task.


3. Contain Kyler Murray 

Photo creds to USA Today

Alabama won't stop Murray, but what they can do is limit him, and the best way to accomplish that is to take away big plays.

Like most Big 12 teams, Oklahoma loves the deep ball, and a lot of its scoring plays are of 60+ yards. If Alabama can force the Sooners into uncomfortable third-down situations, its chances of containing college footballs best offense from doing what it does best will be much improved.

Prediction
Of the two semifinal games, this should be the more entertaining one since both teams will score a lot of points. At the end of the day, Alabama is the better, more complete football team. Oklahoma's defense folded against an SEC team last year in this spot, and I expect it to do the same thing this year against a better SEC team.

Alabama 48, Oklahoma 31

Notre Dame 
1. The first 45 minutes

Photo creds to TribLive

Clemson hasn't had to play in a lot of close games this season, while the Irish had several of them.

Since a scare against Syracuse in late September, the Tigers haven't had many stressful moments in the fourth quarter, so it's worth questioning if their endurance would hold up late in a close game since they've been tested far less than Notre Dame.

If the Irish can come out of the gates strong and keep it close deep in the second half, that bodes well for them, as most of Clemson's games are over before well before the final 15 minutes.

2. Ian Book

It's the biggest game of Ian Books life. Let's see if the Irish QB can get it done (Photo creds to USA Today)

Clemson's defensive front is the best in college football with or without Dexter Lawrence. Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey have graduated from Notre Dame's offensive line, so I don't like its chances of getting much done on the ground. That leaves it up to quarterback Ian Book to have a big day. Be ready, son.

3. Special Teams

Justin Yoon could answer a lot of prayers today (Photo creds to One Foot Down)

Notre Dame's Justin Yoon is one of the best kickers in college football, having converted 16 of 20 field goals, several of which from beyond 40 yards. The Irish's only prayer of winning would be in a tight game. Like, a  really tight game. In those type of contests, as the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown us this season, it could come down to the kicker, and if that's the case, the Irish are in good hands.

Clemson 
1. Next man up

Clemson lost a hoss, but another hoss is taking his place (Photo creds to 247Sports.com). 

Because Lawrence failed his drug test, the Tigers are without one of the best defensive players in college football. Luckily, Clemson has plenty of depth at defensive tackle.

Albert Huggins is an NFL talent who will get his shot to breakout playing in Lawrence's absence. While Lawrence's presence is a big one to lose, there's no reason the Tigers defensive line can't carry on.

2. Don't get worn out
Tying into one of Notre Dame's keys, Clemson hasn't played a nail biter since September, and that was when it was down to its third-string quarterback. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, the Tigers must have the endurance to move on to the national championship game.

3. Come out of the gates strong
Clemson is the better team, as evidenced by the fact that the Tigers are two-touchdown favorites.

As the favorite, its important for Clemson to play well from the outset and not let Notre Dame hang around. If the Tigers are able to do that, this could get ugly.

Prediction
I think this game will be closer than some are expecting, but the favorite still comes out on top.

Clemson's defense will rally around Dexter Lawrence and play an inspired game, and Notre Dame fans will be very frustrated that the offense let them down. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence won't play his best game, but he and running back Travis Etienne will make enough plays to get the Tigers another date with Bama.

Clemson 23, Notre Dame 10.

With everything at stake, Tomlin dropped the ball

Whether it worked or not, Mike Tomlin's decision to run a fake punt late in Sunday's lost to New Orleans was the wrong call. It didn't work (Photo creds to Steelers Wire)

By Joe Smeltzer

Mike Tomlin has won a lot of games.

He doesn't have as many wins as he should mind you, but he's won more than most NFL coaches, and not counting playoff games, obviously, Sunday was shaping up to be the biggest of his career.

Antonio Brown's reach across the goal line on Christmas Day two years ago was iconic, and the two wins over Tom Brady, in 2011 and 2018, were downright sweet, but for the Steelers to save their season with a win in the famous Superdome against the best team in the NFL would have topped them all.

For roughly 56 minutes, Pittsburgh played its best game of the season, and was on its way to closing the deal, holding a four-point lead in late in the fourth quarter. Then, 4th and 5 happened, and Tomlin put the game, and probably the season, in the hands of a fullback.

No disrespect to Roosevelt Nix. Nix does his job well, but his description shouldn't include having to run for any more than two or three yards. Tomlin trusted him to get five, and contrary to Nix's absurd celebration, it didn't work. When the chips were down, Tomlin trusted Nix to run and Tyler Matakevich to block, and as a result, the Steelers probably aren't going to the playoffs.

I'm by no means qualified to coach Pop Warner, let alone in the NFL. If  it were up to me, however, I would have punted. Pittsburgh's defense had played a great second half, getting pressure on Drew Brees and stifling the Saints attack, so I don't think relying on Keith Butler's unit to make one more big stop would have been out of reach.

At the same time, the idea that the Steelers should have stayed on the field when they were reasonably close to four down territory isn't asinine. In fact, it's logical. If Tomlin relied on the best QB/WR duo in the NFL today and maybe of all time to pick up five yards instead of putting the ball in the hands of a guy who's best known for his duties on kick coverage and goal-line sets, the decision would have been criticized had it not worked out. In that case, however, I think reasonable people would have at least understood the coach's thought process regardless of the outcome.

What Tomlin decided to do is indefensible, and he must be held accountable.

Aside from that blunder and allowing Steven Ridley to be on the field in the fourth quarter,  Tomlin wasn't horrible in New Orleans. The Steelers were ready to play from the outset, and that's a reflection of the head coach. With the Saints driving late in the game, Tomlin used his timeouts wisely and left the Steelers roughly a minute and a half to score, which they may well have done  if not for JuJu Smith-Schuster's fatal fumble (bless his heart).

Even the calls Tomlin got right, however, are frustrating to a degree. Let's go back to Oakland for a second.

When the ball kicked off in the Superdome, the Steelers were focused. Yet the lowly Raider marched 74 yards down the field for a touchdown on the game's opening drive. With the game on the line against the Saints, Tomlin used his timeouts wisely, yet saved them in a similar spot against the Raiders. If the Steelers team we saw in New Orleans showed up in Oakland, or if Tomlin wasn't stupid enough to keep Ben Roethlisberger on the sidelines for almost the whole second half, they'd be on the verge of their fourth division title in five years.

Instead, they lost to an awful team, and as a result, needed to beat an elite team in their backyard. While the players are at fault for the Oakland game and all aspects of what looks to be an epic collapse, the fact that they weren't ready to play from the outset against possibly the worst team in the NFL is a reflection of the head coach.

The fact that Sunday's game had such high stakes for the Steelers was ridiculous. Nonetheless, Tomlin's biggest regular-season win was right there, but a dumb decision opened the floodgates and ultimately, that chance disappeared like beer on Bourbon Street. Now, the Steelers must put their faith in young Baker Mayfield for them to make the playoffs.

A lot of people deserve heat for the way the season has gone off the rails, so Tomlin obviously isn't alone. Butler isn't good enough. Neither is special teams coach Danny Smith, but if a head coach is blamed for the shortcomings of his players, the same should go for his staff, so their mistakes are, in a way, his mistakes.

Regardless of what happens next Sunday, Tomlin won't get fired, and I still don't think he should. The case against him, however, is stronger than it ever was, and Sunday's blunder was another example of why Tomlin is possibly the most polarizing figure in Pittsburgh sports.

Good teams win, great teams cover part XIII

Baker is back. But can the Browns cover the spread? (Photo creds to www.cincinnati.com)

Before we get started, here are the standings
Rutz: 44-41-1
Joe: 38-47-1
Jeff: 36-44-2
Ryan: 31-45-1
Brad: 23-61 


Joe
College 
Houston +6.5 against Army
While Army should win, I not so sure about the Black Knights as touchdown favorites. As their win over Navy showed, it's hard to blow teams out of the water with the triple option. Army has played in several close games this year, and I don't think the Armed Forces Bowl will be an exception.

Syracuse -1 over WVU
Do the oddsmakers know that Will Grier is skipping the bowl game? Easy money.

Washington State -3.5 over Iowa State
The Alamo Bowl provides an intriguing matchup between two of the nation's better quarterbacks. WSU quarterback Gardner Minshew knows his team blew a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, and if the Cougars use that failure as motivation, they'll be just fine covering against Brock Purdy and the Cyclones.

Purdue +4 over Auburn
The Tigers have been one of college football's biggest disappointments, and I'm just feeling a second straight bowl win for Jeff Brohm. Boiler up, baby.

NFL
Tennessee -10 over Redskins
Josh Johnson is at quarterback for Washington. The Redskins needed an inspiring rally to beat pitiful Jacksonville last week, so I don't like their chances on the road against a Titans team fighting for the playoffs.

Jets +2.5 over Green Bay
Sam Darnold can play, New York is at home and Green Bay stinks. Screw it, take the Jets.

Bengals +9.5 over Browns
I expect Cleveland to win, but Cincy didn't look too bad on the road against the Chargers. Only two of the Browns six wins have been by double digits, and while one of them was against Cincy, I don't see the Bengals rolling over to their cross-state rivals again. Brownies by six.

Saints -6.5 over Steelers
Without James Conner and possibly JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers offense is depleted. Even at full-strength, it's hard for me to see Pittsburgh getting a win in the dome. The Steelers needed a lot to go right to hold off a good, but not great Patriots team at Heinz Field. The Saints are better than the Patriots, and I expect New Orleans to snap out of its slump Sunday with a double-digit win.

Jeff
College

Wake Forest +3.5 over Memphis 
Boise State -2 over Boston College
Minnesota +5.5 over Georgia Tech 
TCU +1 over Cal

NFL

Chargers -4 over Ravens
Lions +6 over Vikings
Bills +13.5 over Patriots
Texans +2 over Eagles


Brad
College 

Memphis -3.5 over Wake
Army -6.5 over Houston
LA Tech +1 over Hawaii 
Buffalo +1 over Troy

NFL

Ravens +4 over Chargers
Bengals +9.5 over Browns
Vikings -6 over Lions

Colts -9.5 over Giants

Samuels' breakout puts pressure on Conner

By Joe Smeltzer 

Rookie Jaylen Samuels was a big reason for the Steelers' 17-10 upset over New England (Photo creds to NESN).

Jaylen Samuels can play.

The Steelers'  fifth-round draft pick from NC State has shown flashes all season in a backup role, and over the past few weeks, he's had to be more than a serviceable tailback.

When the Steelers' regular running back, James Conner, went down two weeks ago, fans were reasonably concerned about the running game. Of Conner's two backups, Steven Ridley is strictly bench material, and Samuels is unproven. Many suggested the Steelers sign former Oakland Raider CJ Anderson for help, but yours truly was of the (undocumented) opinion that Samuels was more than capable of being a respectable backup, a placeholder until Conner returns. 

In Sunday's win over, say it with me, head coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, Samuels showed himself to be not a placeholder, but somebody capable of being a starter in the NFL, if not Pittsburgh. On just 19 touches, Samuels rushed for 142 yards.

This article isn't meant to dismiss anything Conner has accomplished in his brief NFL career, but the keyword in that sentence is "brief." Conner is good, but far from established enough to where he's earned the absolute benefit of the doubt over Samuels. The way I see it, Conner needs a little more than 12 NFL starts for his job to be off limits. Not to mention, at the time of Conner's injury, he wasn't playing his best football.

 In Conner's last three starts, he rushed for 138 yards on 35 carries, good for a "meh" 3.94 yards per carry average. On the contrary, Samuels more than seven yards per carry against New England. The week before Conner went down, he made a crucial error that opened the gates for the three-game skid that still could derail Pittsburgh's season. If Mike Tomlin wants to ride the hot hand, Samuels is the guy. Assuming Conner is ready to go by the end of the season, he will-- and should-- receive a majority of the carries, but he won't have much leeway.

While Conner is still Pittsburgh's number one option, the Steelers now know they have another guy to carry the load. So if Conner is either rusty or just not good enough, the Steelers shouldn't hesitate to make Samuels the guy with Conner in the background.

Regardless of who gets the most touches, with all of the smoke cleared from the Le'Veon Bell saga, the Steelers running backs are in pretty good shape and can cause problems for defenses. To keep his status as the number one option, Conner needs to get back to where he was in October. Samuels was as impressive Sunday as Conner has been all season.

Steelers are in far too familiar position

Joe Smeltzer

Photo creds to The New York Times

When the Steelers and the Patriots met at Heinz Field last December, the only question regarding Pittsburgh's spot in the postseason was where it would be seeded.

The Steelers entered last's year's edition of their fictitious rivalry with the Brady Bunch at 11-2, having clinched the AFC North the week prior. The only thing left to accomplish in the regular season was to beat New England and ensure home field advantage throughout the postseason. Although the Steelers lost to the Pats in controversial fashion, Pittsburgh still ended the season with a 13-3 record and a first-round bye, something that has happened far less frequently than one might think.

While the Steelers identify as a team with more than enough regular season success,  the position Pittsburgh was in going into last year's game, having secured a division title in early December, was an anomaly. Since the Steelers' last Super Bowl appearance in 2010, last season was the only time the Steelers avoided Wild Card weekend. The situation that presents the Steelers for this year's matchup against New England, where the team is fighting for a playoff spot in Week 15, is much more familiar.

It's common knowledge that the Steelers haven't maximized their potential over the past decade. This team's failures to get to the Super Bowl are well documented. Coming into this week's game, however, there's a strong possibility that Pittsburgh won't even have a chance to disappoint in January. While missing the postseason with this roster would be an embarrassment,  fighting for their playoff lives in mid-December is a scenario that's been far too frequent for the Steelers in the Ben-Brown-Bell era.

In 2015, the Steelers needed another AFC team to lose in Week 17 to sneak into the playoffs. Luckily, that team was the New York Jets, so Pittsburgh got in. The next year, the team's only somewhat successful playoff run almost never happened. With less than a minute left in and the AFC North title on the line, Pittsburgh trailed the hated Baltimore. Fortunately, the best receiver in the world made the most famous play of his career on Christmas Day,, reaching across the goal line for the winning score.

So if the Jets didn't blow it in '15, and if Antonio Brown fell short at the goal line in '16, the Steelers would be looking at missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. Which is weird, considering off-the-field drama and postseason disappointments are the only things Pittsburgh struggles with.

The question that has plagued the Steelers over the past five years is: why can't this group get to a Super Bowl? What we should be asking as well is: why can't this group win more in the regular season? A team that is as good as the Steelers playing in a division as weak as the AFC North shouldn't break a sweat getting into the postseason on an annual basis. Pittsburgh coming into Week 15  fighting for the AFC's number one seed, as it was last season, should be the case this Sunday. Instead, the Steelers are more likely to miss the playoffs entirely than go to the Super Bowl.

The biggest thing that Mike Tomlin's supporters point out to defend the head coach is his regular season track record, and while the Steelers have had plenty of success between September and December, are Pittsburgh's regular-season accomplishments somewhat overrated? Not winning in the playoffs is one thing, but in the regular season, Pittsburgh should rule the AFC North the way the Patriots have ruled the AFC East for the past two decades.

Instead, for the third time in four years, it's December, and we have no idea if the Steelers will play past Jan. 1

Good teams win, great teams cover part XII

It's bowl week. Let's get into it.

Standings 
Rutz: 42-36-1
Joe: 35-43-1
Jeff: 32-41-1
Ryan: 27-41-1
Brad: 23-55


Rutz

Memphis -3.5 over Wake Forest
The Tigers have an outstanding offense, even without Darnell Henderson, and could roll right over the Demon Deacons.

Northern Illinois +2.5 over UAB
 UNI had a crazy comeback at the end of the season after starting 1-3, don't underestimate the Huskies.

App State -7.5 over MTSU
Why not?

Tulane -4 over Louisiana-Lafayette.

NFL

Although the Packers are in shambles, Aaron Rodgers is still a bad man (Photo creds to The Denver Post)

Green Bay +5.5 over Chicago
 I'll believe the Bears can put away Aaron Rodgers when I see it. I hope I'm wrong and Chicago kills them as they should.

New Orleans -6 over Carolina
The Saints have looked a little roughshod, but the Panthers are falling apart.

Seattle -4 over San Francisco
The Seahawks are starting to play some excellent defense and it should lead to a comfortable win here.

Dallas +3 over Indianapolis

Defense travels. The Cowboys win straight-up.

Jeff
College
Georgia Southern -3 over Eastern Michigan

App State -7 over MTSU

UAB -2.5 over Northern Illinois

San Diego State +3 over Ohio

NFL

Mack the Knife (Photo creds to NBC Sports).

Texans -7 over Jets
The Jets aren't good.

Bears -5.5 over Packers
Green Bay's offense won't be able to do anything against Kahlil Mack and Co.

Dolphins +7.5 over Vikings
I'm surprised this is such a large spread. Miami is playing well, so I expect them to keep it close against Minnesota.

Jaguars -7.5 over Redskins
Washington could have made a run in the playoffs until they lost their entire system of QB's to injuries. Jacksonville stinks too, but give me the Jags.

Ryan

College

Fresno -6 over Arizona St

App st -6.5 vs MTD 

USF +2.5 over Marshall

N Illinois 2.5 vs. UAB

Browns +2.5 over Broncos 

Cleveland. Best team in football. Baker throws for 2 TD's and runs for another in prime time. Browns by 7.

Detroit +1 vs. Buffalo

Oakland +3 vs. Cincy

Dolphins +9 against Vikings

9 is a lot of points to give up, especially when your offense is as stagnant as Minnesota’s.

Joe 

College

APP State (-7) over MTSU

The Mountaineers have gone from a glorified FCS team to a legit contender. Expect them to continue their progress with a bowl game triumph. 

Wake Forest  (+3.5) over Memphis

Memphis without Darnell Henderson= Huge yikes. Wake Forest takes advantage and gets the win. 

North Texas (+7) over Utah State

Mason Fine is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and I think the Mean Green's offense is good enough to give Utah State a game and most importantly, cover the spread.

Tulane (-3) over Louisiana 

Screw it 

NFL 

Patriots (-2) over Steelers

I don't think New England wipes the floor with Pittsburgh, and if the Pats beat Miami last week, I'd actually feel pretty confident in the Steelers getting back on track at home. Tom Brady coming off a loss, however, is bad news.

Broncos (-2.5) over Browns 

As much as I enjoy what Cleveland is doing, I can't bet against Denver at home. Phillip Lindsey is quietly developing into one of football's best running backs, and Denver is fighting for a playoff spot. While the Browns are certainly much improved, I don't see them getting a win on the road in primetime. I'd love to be wrong. 

Giants (+1) over Titans

New York has been playing much better football in recent weeks and, honestly, could be in the thick of an NFC East title race had a few more things gone its way early in the season. Tennessee's run defense is mediocre at best, so expect Saquon to have a field day and lead the G-Men to a win. 

Ravens (-7.5) over Bucs

Baltimore is in a solid position to win the AFC North, and assuming the Steelers lose Sunday, the Ravens will improve their chances this week. Tampa is a bad football team, and I don't see the Bucs slowing down Lamar Jackson and a Ravens squad that has a lot to play for. 

Steelers-Raiders: Keys to the game

By Donny Chedrick 

“The Black Hole” has become an odd house of horrors for Pittsburgh since the riveting Steelers-Raiders rivalry of the 70’s.

The Steelers haven’t won in Oakland since December 10, 1995 when Neil O’Donnell was under center and his main targets were Yancy Thigpen, Ernie Mills and a rookie named Kordell Stewart. The Steelers want to—and need to— win this time around. It technically isn’t a must-win game for the Steelers, but with the Ravens on their heels and games against the Patriots and Saints remaining, it’s essential for Pittsburgh to get back in the win column. With that, here are some keys to look for with the Oakland Raiders.

The Trenches

Although it’s a key in every football, this must be a point of emphasis for the Steelers against the Raiders. A shaky offensive line and a bad pass rush is what Oakland poses, which works into Pittsburgh’s favor. The Steelers need to plan and expose the line on each side for Oakland to a point that puts Pittsburgh in total control. If the Raiders can’t protect Derek Carr, the Steelers can feast, with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Oakland traded one of the best defensive players in football before the season in Khalil Mack, and have suffered on that side since. The Raiders struggle to get after the quarterback without Mack and with the Steelers offensive line being consistently one of the most stable in the league, it mixes in well for Ben Roethlisberger to be well-protected.

The Steelers’ Secondary

Another point of attack for the Oakland could be Pittsburgh’s secondary. Although it seems as if opponents light up the Pittsburgh pass defense, that isn’t necessarily the case. The Steelers rank in the top 10 pass yards against, allowing 228.5 yards per game (8^th in the NFL). There have been times when the Steelers have been eaten alive by an opposing QB like Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Rivers and Joe Flacco, but for the most part, this defense has done its job. During the Steelers six-game winning streak, they weren’t torched by a QB and as they look to get back on track against Oakland, the Raiders can try to key on the secondary to get their fourth straight home win against Pittsburgh.

Pound the rock

The key to the Raiders success against the Steelers in the three victories since 1995 has come on the ground. All three games featured a leading rusher over 50 yards with a pair of them going for 100+ against Pittsburgh. In close victories in both 2012 and 2013, Darren McFadden ran for 113 and a score followed by Terrelle Pryor going for 106 and a touchdown, including the longest touchdown run by a quarterback in NFL history (93 yards). That has been a main contribution to the Raiders being able to outlast the Steelers as the passing attack has seen just one game over 100 yards in the three victories since 1995 and that came from potential Hall of Famer, Carson Palmer, who threw for 209 yards in 2012. Oakland will need to count on an advantage in the run game to once again top the Steelers today.

Good teams win, great teams cover part XI

No college games this week. All NFL. Let's go.


Joe
Bills -3.5 over Jets
Buffalo stinks slightly less than the Jets do.

Browns +1.0 over Panthers
Carolina has hit a wall, while by the lake, Baker Mayfield is developing into a leader. It seems like the Browns let me down quite a bit when I pick them, so I'll cautiously say Cleveland by seven.

Saints -8 over Bucs
New Orleans is coming off its first loss in more than two months and playing against a putrid Tampa Bay defense. Even on the road, give me the Saints to bounce back by three TD's.

Steelers -10.0 over Raiders
I know this is the type of game the Steelers lose. After two straight stinkers, however, I don't see Pittsburgh falling again. I still think Oakland keeps it somewhat close, but the Steelers at -10 is a solid pick.

Bears -3.0 over Rams 
LA hasn't lost in a while, and it will be playing on the road in cold weather. Meanwhile, the Bears pass rush is excellent, and they're getting Mitch Turbisky back on offense. I also think Chicago will use last weeks loss to the Giants as motivation for Sunday night, so yeah, I'm loving the Bears' chances.

Ravens +6.5 over Chiefs
Without Kareem Hunt, it will be challenging for the Chiefs to go against Baltimore's defense, which is among footballs best. I don't expect the Ravens to win unless Lamar Jackson can have a big game through the air, but I think KC is in for a dogfight. Take Baltimore to cover.

Cowboys -3.0 over Eagles
Dallas is on fire. The Cowboys handled Philly at the Linc, and they'll do it again in Jerry World. 

Packers -4.5 over Falcons
Two of football's biggest disappointments square off. Aaron Rodgers can't lose forever, can he?

Rutz
Cleveland +1.5 over Carolina
 Baker, don't make me regret this. Browns win a rugged game at home over struggling Panthers.

Minnesota +3.5 over Seattle
The Vikings are a better team than the Seahawks. Although I still see them losing, it will be by a field goal or less in a tough environment.

New England -7.5 over Miami
 The Dolphins have given Brady fits over the years but I feel like the Patriots should win this one by at least 10.

New Orleans -8 over Tampa Bay
The Saints will bounce back with rout of the Bucs.

Green Bay -4.5 over Atlanta
Atlanta is going nowhere fast. As bad as the Packers are, they're 4-1-1 at home and should win by a touchdown.

Baltimore +6.5 over Kansas City
 I like the Ravens D to make this a tight game.

Buffalo -3.5 over NY Jets
If New York couldn't close last week, I feel the demoralizing feeling carries over and the Bills roll.

Detroit -2.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals upset last week notwithstanding, they're a lousy team and the Lions have more talent.


Jeff
Panthers (-1) vs Browns
Gut feeling.

Buffalo (-4) over Jets
The Jets are terrible

Saints (-8) over Bucs
Tampa's defense won’t be able to stop the Saints

Giants(-3.5) over Redskins
Mark Sanchez won’t be able to keep up with the firepower on the Giants offense.

Chargers(-14) over Bengals
I live in Ohio now and let me tell you, the Bengals are the armpit of the NFL. Dysfunctional on both sides of the ball and in the GM chair.

Steelers(-10) over Raiders
The Steelers will come out strong and actually finish this time.

Rams(-3) over Bears 
Chicago will finally have to play an explosive offense and will struggle.

Vikings (+3) over Seahawks
Minnesota is the more complete team.

Good teams win, great teams cover part X

Let's get into it.

Rutz 
College
Ohio State -14 over Northwestern. 
The Buckeyes can smell a miracle playoff berth and they are going to absolutely steamroll the happy-to-be-there Wildcats. I bet Ohio State wins by at least 28.

Texas +8 against Oklahoma. 
The Longhorns have beaten them before, and the Sooners are probably expected to walk over them in the rematch. I think Oklahoma wins, but it will be a tight game.

Georgia +13 over Alabama
The money's coming in hard on the Tide, but Georiga will come out strong and make this more of a fight.

UCF -3 over Memphis
With perfection in sight, the Knights, without Mckenzie Milton, still get the job done against a solid Memphis team.

NFL
Philadelphia -6.5 over Washington
 At home and on the heels of a big rally against the GIants, the Eagles roll over Colt McCoy.

NY Giants +4.5 over Chicago
The Bears will be without Mitch Trubisky, so I think this will be a tough, defensive slugfest. 17-13 Chicago.

Kansas City -14 over Oakland
The Chiefs should just flat out demolish the Raiders, who look like they've quit on this season.

Atlanta -1 over Baltimore
 I mean, the Falcons are the more talented team, and they're at home. They should win this game.

Jeff 
College
Oklahoma -7.5 over Texas
Kyler Murray is amazing

Alabama -12.5 over Georgia
Alabama is clearly the best team in the country

Pitt +27.5 over Clemson
Clemson isn’t as good as everyone thinks, and won't beat Pitt that badly.

Ohio State +14.5 over Northwestern 
Expect the Buckeyes to come of dominant in making their case for the playoff.

NFL
Ravens +1.5 over Falcons
Atlanta's defense won’t be able to stop Lamar Jackson.

Colts -4 over Jags
The Colts win blow out Jacksonville.

Vikings +5.5 over Pats
 I actually think Vikings New England. The Pats' defense is suspect, and Kirk Cousins can take advantage of that.

Chargers +3.5 over Steelers
Pittsburgh will struggle to stop Philip Rivers.

Ryan 
College
Alabama -12 over UGA
The steamroll continues.

Ohio State -15 over Northwestern
NW isn't that good and Ohio State will want to give their best shot for a playoff appearance.

OU -9.5 over Texas
 Oklahoma exacts revenge for its only loss of the season and secures a CFP birth.

UCF -3 over Memphis
Even without its star QB, UCF will finish undefeated for the second straight season.

NFL
Chicago -3.5 over NYG.

Jets +9.5 against Titans.

Chargers +3 over Steelers

Browns +7 against Texans
The Browns, the best team in football, may not win their third straight but will cover the spread in Houston who is coming off a short week.

NFL
Titans -8 over Jets

Rams -10 over Lions

Packers -14 over Cardinals 

Steelers -3.5 over Chargers
No Melvin Gordon + Steelers coming off their worst loss of the season + at Heinz Field= Oh mama.

Tie in Cleveland could cost the Steelers

By Joe Smeltzer

 

Sunday in Denver wasn't the first time a James Conner fumble helped cost the Steelers a win (Photo creds to SB Nation)

There's no debate that Sunday's loss in Denver was the Steelers' worst of the season.

It wasn't a typical "Tomlin trap game" that we've grown used to seeing over the past five years. Usually, Pittsburgh loses to an inferior opponent because it came out of the gates flat and doesn’t get it together until it’s too late. That wasn't the case Sunday.

The Steelers were ready to go, significantly outplayed the Broncos, but found a way to lose because of stupid mistakes. What's most aggravating is that now, it will be difficult for them to get a first-round bye without running the table.

Assuming the Steelers don't get a top two seed in the AFC—they've only accomplished that once since 2010—many people will point to the Mile High Meltdown as the reason why, and that will certainly have merit. In the likely event that the Steelers have to play on wild card weekend for the fourth time in five years, however, a game that Pittsburgh didn’t lose could be looked at as a major reason why.

Week one's 21-21 tie at Cleveland was similar to Sunday's loss in some ways. The Steelers dominated their season opener statistically and had a two-touchdown lead midway through the fourth quarter. Then, everything went to hell.

In what would become a preview for Denver, the game turned on a James Conner fumble, and Cleveland scored two touchdowns to send it to overtime, where both teams were too inept to score. So instead of coasting to a win, the Steelers started the season at 0-0-1.

Had the team did what they were supposed to do by Lake Erie, Sunday's loss would serve merely as a nuisance. The Steelers would be 8-3, not 7-3-1, with wins over LA and New England in the coming weeks—and both of those games being at home—putting them in a good position to get a first-round bye.

Because the Steelers tied, however, they probably have to win their last five games to get a bye, which would require beating the best team in football in the Superdome. I don't like the chances of that happening.

In the end, every setback carries the same weight. In week two against Kansas City, The Steelers scored 37 points without turning the ball over and still managed to lose. Three games later, Pittsburgh got shutout in the second half against the Ravens, leading to a prime-time loss at Heinz Field.   So while every Steelers loss this season has been frustrating and at least somewhat avoidable, the 1 in 7-3-1 will fly under the radar because it happened so long ago.

Although we may not have realized the significance of it then, that tie will probably end up making the Steelers path to the Super Bowl much more difficult than it should be.

Which is fitting, because nothing can ever come easy with this team.