Path to the Big 10 title/College Football Playoff still goes through Ohio State

If you're a Penn State fan, Saturday's loss to Minnesota sucked.

It was a game the Nittany Lions should have won, could have won, almost won, but didn't win. The players didn't execute, and the coaches didn't always put them in an ideal position to do so. As a result, Penn State is no longer undefeated, and the common thought is that its college football playoff hopes are dead.

Although this loss is significant to an extent, and could well result in the Nittany Lions not getting a Rose Bowl bid, how much does it change as far as the playoff goes?

At 11:59 Saturday morning, I don't think anybody would have argued that Penn State could get to the playoff without beating Ohio State.

A loss to the Buckeyes would eliminate any chance of the Nittany Lions winning the Big 10, and without a conference title, it's hard to imagine the playoff committee putting Penn State in over teams like Oregon, Oklahoma or good ole Alabama [with or without an SEC championship]. Although the Nittany Lions are no longer ranked in the top four, the path to the playoff is, although difficult, still there.

If Penn State beats Ohio State in two weeks, it will win the Big 10 East. If the Nittany Lions win the Big 10 East, they'll play in the championship game against the winners of the Big 10 West. The Big 10 West champion will be Minnesota, so, therefore, the Nittany Lions would have a chance to negate their only loss of the season.

If Penn State finishes 12-1 with a win at Ohio State, plus three more quality conference wins, and with proof that they could beat the team that slayed them, it's hard to imagine the committee passing them up.

Pretty simple, isn't it? The bad news is, Penn State probably won't beat Ohio State. It doesn't matter that Chase Young will probably be suspended. The Buckeyes could start Neil Young at defensive end and still put a national championship contender on the field. Playing Ohio State anywhere is a chore.

Playing in Columbus is a death sentence, and unless something epic transpires Nov. 23, dreams of a national title returning to Old Main will be buried under the Horseshoe's turf while the Buckeyes sing "Carmen Ohio" in celebration of another expected win.

At the moment, Saturday's loss stings, but it's not as if Penn State had a great chance at a College Football Playoff appearance anyway. In all likelihood, when we look back on 2019, we'll see that the reason Penn State misses the College Football Playoff will be because it isn't on Ohio State's level. Not because of losing to Minnesota.

Dancing or not: Give Pat Chambers another year.

Photo creds to news.psu.edu

Six seasons. Zero NCAA Tournament appearances.

Penn State head men's basketball coach Pat Chambers hasn't reminded anybody of Bobby Knight in his time in Happy Valley. Along with never making it to the Big Dance, the Nittany Lions haven't even reached the NIT under Chambers, and their only postseason appearance was a CBI quarterfinal five years ago. Penn State has had just one winning season in Chambers's tenure--a hardly memorable 18-16 season in 2014-15.

This year's team is by far the best Chambers has had at Penn State, and is probably the most talented one since the days of Joe Crispin, with all five regular starters averaging double figures in scoring. Nonetheless, the squad has been inconsistent, and it's fair to say that it has underachieved. Despite three wins over Ohio State, losses to the likes of Rider, Minnesota and Indiana have put the Nittany Lions squarely on the bubble. If the team had won more of the games they were supposed to win,  Selection Sunday might not be a day of uncertainty, and if the Lions are forced to settle for the Not Important Tournament, Chambers's job status will be called into question by fans and media alike. But if Penn State doesn't go dancing, would getting rid of Chambers solve any problems?

If the Nittany Lions miss the tournament, this season should go down as a missed opportunity. Of course, Chambers will deserve some heat for that. But the future of this team is bright.
Aside from senior guard Shep Garner, the Nittany Lions return the bulk of their production - most importantly Tony Carr, who could turn into the best player in the Big Ten. So with Penn State on the cusp of becoming one of the top teams in the Big 10, would it be wise to do something as drastic as making a coaching change?

Sure, there could be somebody in Penn State's ballpark that might be a better option. But there are plenty of others who wouldn't be, and a transition like this could well be damaging, and hard to justify to Nittany Nation if it doesn't go as planned.
Perhaps the thing that would be the most puzzling about letting Chambers walk would be; why the hell would they fire the guy after what was far and away his best season in State College? Sure, stranger things have happened. But that doesn't mean that getting rid of Chambers would be a wise move.

Penn State basketball is in a good spot right now. Should they have won a few more games this season? Absolutely. But with Tony Carr, Mike Watkins, Josh Reaves and Lamar Stevens back in the picture, there is no reason that Penn State can't be in the tournament- without any speculation-- next season. Although Chambers will never be Dean Smith, he's been in Happy Valley long enough and has endured enough bad basketball to see that happen.

Penn State-Washington: 3 Keys to victory

Photo creds to The Daily Collegian, Penn State

By: Joe Smeltzer
Hello all. For the first time since 1997, Penn State is in the Fiesta Bowl. They are facing a worthy foe in the Washington Huskies, who like Penn State, could have found themselves in the college football playoff with a little more bounces in their direction. Nonetheless, both teams are here, and should make for an exciting matchup. Here are three things Penn State can do to give James Franklin his second bowl win since taking over as head coach.



Key #1: Be prepared to throw

Photo creds to Madison.com

As good as Saquon Barkley is, anybody who watches Penn State has seen how much he struggles when the line doesn't block for him.  Considering that Washington's defense allows just 2.6 yards per carry and its front features the 6'5, 340 pound Vita Vea, I wouldn't expect a 200-yard outburst from number 26. If Barkley can't find room to run, it's up to the passing game to step it up.

Luckily, the Nittany Lions have shown that when an opposing team is focusing on Barkley, the offense can still have success. If the opposing defense is worried about Saquon,  Trace McSorley can take advantage of that, and find Mike Gesicki, DaeSean Hamilton or even Barkley himself to move the football.

Penn State's offense isn't a one-man band, and it is capable of scoring points with or without an effective run game.


Key #2: Limit the deep ball

Photo creds to the Spokesman-Review

Jake Browning might be the best quarterback Penn State has faced all year, and his best receiver, Dante Pettis, is a speedy, deep ball threat. So Browning has a lot of success when throwing it deep to his main man. If the Penn State secondary can limit the big play, the chances of taming Browing and, thus, the Washington offense, will be enhanced, especially if Browning's second favorite target, freshman tight end Hunter Bryant, isn't able to play.

Pettis can burn Penn State if they are not careful, not only on offense but also on special teams, where he has scored four touchdowns on special teams this season.

Key #3: Control Myles Gaskin

Photo creds to Everett Harold

Barkley isn't the only elite running back playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Gaskin is a stud, averaging over six yards a carry on the ground. With John Ross now in the NFL, the Huskies pass game isn't what it was in 2016. Therefore, Gaskin means more to this offense this season than he did a year ago. If Penn State can limit Gaskin from breaking off a super big run, which he is very capable of doing, then it will be hard for the Huskies passing game- in which Pettis is the only player with over 500 yards receiving- to carry the load. If Gaskin rushes for less than 100 yards, I feel pretty good about Penn State's chances today.

Final prediction 
I expect both run defenses to hold their own against elite backs. If that happens, I think the winner of this game comes down to which quarterback has a better day. While I'm not sure Trace McSorley is better than Jake Browning, I am confident that he has better receiving options around him. The Washington offense just isn't the same without John Ross, and while you could say the same about Penn State without Chris Godwin, I would take Hamilton, Gesicki, Barkley and Juwan Johnson over Dante Pettis and really nobody else. The depth that Penn State has in the passing game will be the difference today, and the Nittany Lions will close out their second consecutive 11-win season.

With no national title to play for, Fiesta Bowl still provides Penn State with a chance to impress

Photo creds to Si.Com

By: Joe Smeltzer
For the Penn State Nittany Lions, the 2017 college football season has been neither an overwhelming success nor a colossal failure.

As it prepares for its seventh Fiesta Bowl appearance Saturday afternoon against the Washington Huskies, it's indisputable that  Penn State has had a good, solid year. The Lions ended their regular season at 10-2 and ranked ninth in the country. That is something to be proud of, especially considering that both of Penn State's losses came against ranked opponents on the road, and were by a combined total of just four points. For as much success as the Nittany Lions have had, however, it still feels like this team left a lot on the table. As of now, I think it's fair to describe 2017 as a year of near misses.

Penn State entered this season with most of the key pieces of the 2016 Big Ten champions returning to Happy Valley. So while a College Football Playoff berth wasn't necessarily the expectation coming in, it was far from an unrealistic objective. The Nittany Lions nearly accomplished that goal but failed their two biggest tests of the season, losing at Ohio State and Michigan State in consecutive weeks. Winning just one of those games- along with the Big Ten championship- would have almost surely gotten Penn State into the playoffs. But it wasn't to be.

Collectively, Penn State failed to reach the mountaintop of winning a national championship.  Individually, junior running back Saquon Barkley couldn't bring home the most significant honor in college sports. Barkley was a preseason Heisman favorite and for the first half of the year, looked to be running away with the trophy. But as Penn State's playoff dreams faded, so did Barkley's Heisman hopes, and number 26 didn't even get invited to New York as a finalist for the award. Saturday will likely be Barkley's last game for the Blue and White, and it's a chance for him to end his Penn State career on a high note with a dominant performance.

Besides not reaching the playoffs or repeating as Big Ten champions, of Penn State's ten wins, not many were eye-opening. The Nittany Lions beat rival Pitt. Whoopie. The Panthers ended up going 5-7.  Penn State fans will remember the last-second thriller in Iowa City for years to come. Awesome. But considering that the Lions were two-touchdown favorites over Iowa, forgive me for classifying that as a game they were supposed to win, and should have won by more than two points. Watching the Blue and White pound Jim Harbaugh and Michigan in front of a record-setting Beaver Stadium crowd was fabulous. But the "team up north" ain't what it used to be. Unlike 2016, this year's Penn State squad failed to win a game it wasn't supposed to. While a win in the Fiesta Bowl wouldn't necessarily change that- Penn State is favored by two- it would be, far and away, Penn State's most impressive win of 2017.

For Penn State, beating Washington wouldn't qualify as a signature triumph. The Lions are ranked ahead of the Huskies. But aside from Ohio State, Washington is the best team Penn State has faced all year and is similar to the Nittany Lions in multiple areas. Both schools were Power Five conference champions last year and finished 2016 ranked in the top ten. Both brought a lot of talent back from a year ago, particularly on offense, and thus, were thought to be playoff contenders before this season, and both failed to repeat as conference champs due to two close road losses, with the Huskies losing at Arizona State and Stanford by a combined 14 points. If Penn State beats Washington, it would give the Nittany Lions a win over a top 15 team, which they haven't had in 2017, as well as a former "BCS" bowl triumph, which the Nittany Lions haven't accomplished since 2006.

I've said in the past that bowl games are glorified exhibitions, and I think that's true in a lot of cases. But I also believe that the end of one season sets a tone for the next year and beyond. The Nittany Lions look to have a lot of talent coming back for 2018, in addition to an elite recruiting class, so the future of Penn State football is bright regardless of what happens Saturday. But a win in the Fiesta Bowl would leave Nittany Nation feeling a lot better about the present, as well as the future of this football program. Wouldn't ending the year at 11-2 and ranked in the top ten with a marquee bowl win on top of it look better than finishing 10-3 with no real impressive victories?

Right now, my feeling of this Penn State football season is one of unsatisfied hunger. While winning the Fiesta Bowl instead of the national championship wouldn't change that, it would end the year on a high note, and give James Franklin his first major bowl victory as a head coach.

Penn State-Michigan State: 3 keys to victory

Hello, all. Last week sucked. In case you've been living under a rock, the Nittany Lions blew 15-point fourth quarter lead to the hated Buckeyes in Columbus. It was my worst night as a Penn State fan in almost a decade, and hopefully, this week goes a little better. The final hurdle of Penn State's three-week gauntlet is the Michigan State Spartans. Here are three things the Nittany Lions can do to bounce back against Sparty this afternoon.

Key #1: Next man up

Photo creds to Philly.com

Not only did Penn State suffer its most crushing loss in years in Columbus last Saturday, the Nittany Lions also lost some key players on both the offensive and defensive lines. Left tackle Ryan Bates suffered a leg injury last week, and defensive end Ryan Buchholz was on crutches after going down in the first half. If neither Bates or Buchholz is ready to go, guys like Chaz Wright and Will Fries will have to step up on the offensive line, while Kevin Givens will see an increased role on defense. If Penn State is to further prove itself as a dominant program, it will need to prove that it can win without some of its best players. The Lions will have an opportunity to do that today.

Key #2: More consistency from #26

Photo creds to NCAA.com

I know its hard to criticize Saquon Barkley, but after taking the opening kickoff back for a touchdown the Ohio State defense, for the most part, held the Heisman front-runner in check for the rest of the game. Barkley is the best player in college football, but he tends to go quiet after one or two big runs. It would be helpful to Penn State, and to Barkley's future bank account if he can spread out his production more throughout the game. Barkley will have a tough assignment in linebacker Joe Bachie, so it will be intriguing as always to see what Saquon does, and how long he does it for.

Key #3: Play angry

Photo creds to Cleveland.com

Last week was brutal, and all Penn State can do is move forward. Both teams will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as Michigan State suffered a tough triple-overtime loss to Northwestern. If Penn State plays with a bigger chip and shows that it is the better team, it could be a long and painful afternoon for Sparty.

Final Prediction
Penn State is the better team. This Nittany Lions team has shown that they can come back from adversity, and they are too talented and too angry to suffer another setback in East Lansing tomorrow.

Penn State-Ohio State: Three Keys to Victory

It's the biggest game of the year. Number Two vs. Number Six. Whoever wins could be on their way to the College Football Playoff. Whoever loses will likely have to hope for the Rose Bowl. It's Penn State and Ohio State. Let's talk about what the Nittany Lions need to do to win this heavyweight battle.

Key #1: Protect Trace McSorley

Photo creds to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Penn State doesn't have a lot of weak spots. One of its weaknesses, however, is the offensive line.

The big uglies have not been a strong suit for the Nittany Lions over the past few years, and this season is no exception. While guys like Will Fries show potential, there is still work to be done. Penn State's line took a step forward last week, containing the vaunted Michigan defense pretty well. It will need a similar performance today. As amazing as Saquon Barkley is, if Trace McSorley is unable to do his job well for whatever reason, Penn State won't win the game. For McSorley to be at his best, he will need help from the O-Line.

Key #2: Pressure J.T. Barrett. 

Photo creds to Bleacher Report

In Ohio State's past three losses, Barrett has played poorly. That isn't a coincidence.
In the Buckeyes' lone loss of 2017 to Oklahoma, Barrett was awful, going 19-35 and throwing his lone interception of the season. Since then, the senior quarterback has been lights out. In October, Barrett is 47-64 with eight touchdown passes, 0 INT's and a 191.6 passer rating. Barrett is dangerous, and the more time he has in the pocket, the better he is.

To make life difficult for Barrett, Penn State's pass rush, led by the defensive end tandem of Ryan Bucholz and Shareef Miller, has to hold its own against Ohio State's big uglies and force Barrett to make snap decisions. The Nittany Lions have been excellent defensively, and Saturday is their biggest test. They will need to take a page from last year's upset over the Buckeyes and swarm Barrett. Otherwise, he can make some big plays.

Key #3: Saquon Barkley is the best player on the field. 
Barkley is the best player in the country. But there are some other studs on the other side, particularly Buckeyes runningback J.K. Dobbins. Penn State will need to play its best game of the year to win today and to do that, Barkley will have to do Barkley things and be better than Dobbins, Barrett, or anybody else on the field.
The Nittany Lions have proven that they can win without Barkley being a major factor. But they haven't beaten a team like Ohio State without #26 being a beast.

Final Prediction

Photo creds to SI

I'm nervous about this game. Sounds crazy, right? But Penn State is not supposed to win. They are touchdown underdogs and with good reason. The Buckeyes are on a roll, playing at Ohio Stadium, and have revenge on their minds from Marcus Allen's blocked kick and Grant Haley's return.
I think the difference in this game will be the quarterback play.  Ohio State's defense will pressure McSorley, and that will create problems for Penn State. On the other hand, Barrett will come up huge in the biggest game of the year, and he will be the one who puts Ohio State on a clear path to the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State 35, Penn State 21 

For Penn State, Michigan week brings a different kind of pressure

Photo creds to NJ.com

By Joe Smeltzer

Over the past year,  the Penn State football program has been no stranger to big games.

In the past 365 days, the Nittany Lions have shocked Ohio State, beat Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game and formed one-half of a Rose Bowl for the ages in what was essentially a road game. Penn State is battle-tested, and that is why it sits at it's highest ranking in almost two decades. The way I see it, however, tonight's game against "That team up north," is a whole different animal than what these Lions are used to.

There are a few aspects of tonight's matchup that make it different from anything these players have faced in their college careers. The first and perhaps the most obvious one is that College GameDay will be in Happy Valley for the first time since 2009. It might seem ridiculous to think that a pregame show could have an impact on Penn State's mindsets. But Lee Corso being in State College signifies that the biggest game in America is happening in Happy Valley. It's also worth noting that, the last time GameDay was at Beaver Stadium, Penn State laid an egg against a seemingly inferior Iowa team, 21-10. Like that Iowa game, the Nittany Lions come in ranked in the top five and are expected to handle their opponent pretty well tonight. Penn State is favored by 9.5 points, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Nittany Lions an 87.4% chance to beat the Wolverines. The fact that Penn State is on a big stage against one of the country's top programs isn't new to these players. The fact that they are favored to win such a marquee matchup is.

Of all the big games that the Nittany Lions played in last year, they didn't necessarily have a lot of pressure on them throughout that magical run. Penn State went from 2-2 to damn near qualifying for the College Football Playoff, so to say they exceeded expectations would be an understatement. In 2017, PSU won't be sneaking up on anybody.

As impressive as last season's overnight success was, the only possible downside is that now, with the possible exception of Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are expected to win every game they play in. In 2016, the playoffs were a pipe dream until the last two weeks of the season. Now, they are a realistic possibility. With brutal road games at OSU and Michigan State looming, a loss to Michigan tonight could kill those dreams, and begin a downward spiral.

It's not like Penn State hasn't been tested this year, however. We all remember that night in Iowa City a few weeks back. But that matchup was early in the season. This game is right in the middle of crunch time, where any slip could be killer. Although Iowa is a respected program, it is not Michigan. Tonight's game will be a chance for James Franklin to do something he hasn't done in three tries; beat Jim Harbaugh. If Harbaugh gets the best of Franklin yet again, the legitimacy of Penn State's charismatic, some say pompous head coach will be called into question.

Penn State has accomplished a lot over the past year. But because the Nittany Lions are still a team on the rise, and because they haven't beaten a ranked team yet this season, there a still those who are not sold. Tonight provides a chance for these Lions to make a statement,  or to fall flat on their face in the middle of a "White Out."

Penn State-Iowa: Three Keys to Victory

Hello, all. It is week four of the 2017 Penn State football season, but considering that this is the first true test the Nittany Lions have faced all year, and the Big 10 opener, one could argue that it is week one. Tonight, Penn State will try to hold off upset-minded Iowa in a brutal road enviornment. Here are three keys that they need to execute to do that.
Key #1: Time of possession

Photo creds to Land of 10.

As good as Penn State's offense has been this year, it has not been dominant as far as holding the football goes. Against Pitt, the Nittany Lions only held the ball for 21:40 while the Panthers had it for 38:20. Against Georiga State last week, the Panthers held the ball for 38:47.
It is true that a big reason for this is that Penn State scores a lot, sometimes quickly. But this is the first decent offense the Nittany Lions have faced all year. If Penn State doesn't hold the ball long, it could allow the Hawkeyes to mount long drives, and keep the ball out of Trace McSorley's hands. While that was all well and good the past two weeks, it might not fly tonight.

Key #2: Bend, but don't suck (but don't bend to begin with)

Penn State's defense has allowed a total of 14 points in three games. If you look past those numbers, however, the defense has had its problems in the first few weeks. A perfect example of this is last Saturday.
Although the Nittany Lions shut out Georiga State, the Panthers had more first downs (21-19) and put up 320 yards of offense, which is a decent amount for a team that scored 0 points. Penn State better be careful not to let Iowa move the ball because unlike Georiga State, the Hawkeyes just might convert those chances. If Iowa gets the ball in the red zone, the defense must hold strong. As former defensive coordinator Tom Bradley used to say; Bend, but don't suck. It would help my heart rate, however, if the defense didn't bend, either.


Key #3: Start fast

Photo creds to Sheraton Iowa City Hotel

There is no question that Iowa will be fired up tonight. This game is in prime time, played in front of an electric home crowd, and Kirk Ferentz remembers last years massacre in Happy Valley. The best time for Iowa to get things going against Penn State will be in the first quarter when the adrenaline is highest. If the Hawkeyes can't outplay the Nittany Lions in the first 15 minutes, it will be hard for them to do so for the next 45. If Penn State can handle the initial adrenaline, I think they have the edge for the rest of the night. If not, we will be in for a fight.

Final Prediction
Considering that the Iowa Hawkeyes caused two of my five worst nights as a Penn State fan; well, from an on-field standpoint anyway, I am always nervous for a game at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa is always a well-coached team that gets the most out of its talent, and the Hawkeyes are a tough out for anybody in the Big 10, especially at home.

With that said, this Penn State team is too talented, in my opinion, to slip this early. The Hawkeyes have not looked impressive these first few weeks, as they've struggled with North Texas and Iowa State. I think Iowa will be a decent team in the Big 10 West, but there's nothing that makes me believe that it will ruin Penn State's dream season before it starts.

It's time once and for all that we vanquish the nightmares of 2008 and 2009. Blowing out Iowa at Kinnick in 2012 was awesome. Last years party was fantastic. But tonight, coming in as a top-five team, with most of the nation hoping for an upset, and beating the Hawkeyes, would signify that the days of Ferentz having Penn State's number are over.

Penn State 30, Iowa 17