College Football

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

NCAA Tournament 2019: Champs, Busts and Sleepers for each region

It's time
By: Joe Smeltzer
This. Is March Madness. Here are the winners, the losers, and the potential bracket busters from all four regions. Of course, I'll give my Final Four picks at the end, too. Let's go.


East
Champion: Duke
With Zion Williamson back and not missing a step in the ACC tournament, the Blue Devils have snapped out of their funk that started when Zion went down against UNC Feb. 20. With Michigan State experiencing inconsistency this season and LSU missing its head coach, Duke is in by far the best spot of the top three seeds in the East Region, and it would be a massive disappointment if the most talented team in the country didn't make the  Final Four.

Sleeper: Belmont
Maryland is reeling, and LSU is, once again, without a head coach. That opens the door for the 11th seeded Bruins to make a run, but Belmont is capable of making noise in any region.

Averaging 87 points a game-- good for second in the nation-- the Bruins can score, led by guard Dylan Windler (20.8 PPG). Getting upset in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament could motivate Belmont, as well.  I have the Bruins in my Sweet 16, and I'd recommend putting them there as well.

Bust: LSU
It's been a fun ride for the Tigers, but it may well end on the first weekend of the tournament. While I see LSU getting past Yale because of their play on the interior, Belmont is ready, and it can easily take advantage of the distracted SEC regular season champs.

South 
Champion: Tennessee
If Loyola's Clayton Cluster's didn't get a friendly role in last year's second round, the Vols might well have gone to the Final Four. Instead, they were just another victim of the Sister Jean machine.

With the bulk of Tennesee's talent from that squad back in 2019, led by two-time SEC Player of the Year Grant Williams, the Vols are experienced and motivated.

Tennessee's biggest challenge in the South Region is Virginia, and the Wahoos are formidable for sure. With defensive minded-teams like Oregon and Kansas State in the region, however, the Cavs will be worn down by the Elite Eight. If Tennessee does its job in the first three rounds, they can take advantage of UVA's fatigue, get Rick Barnes to the Final Four and bathe in the tears of Longhorn nation.

Sleeper: Oregon 
While I don't think the old cliche "defense wins championships" holds as true in basketball as it does football, Oregon's D won it the PAC 12 and got the Ducks to the tournament despite Bol Bol being out for most of the year.  With neither Wisconsin or Kansas State scoring efficiently, and UC Irvine being, well, a 13 seed, the Ducks have a great chance to frustrate to ride their defense to the Sweet 16.

Bust: Purdue
My mother is a graduate, so I write this partially out of caution. I always want the Boilers to make a run, but the team has been inconsistent all year. While Carson Edwards is capable of winning a game on his own, if he's not hitting his shots, that's a problem. Assuming Purdue gets by Old Dominion in the first round, it'll either face defending national champion Villanova or red hot St. Mary's. That's a tough draw, and I wish the Boilers the best.

West
Champion: Texas Tech
I've loved the Red Raiders all season.

Their defense is arguably the best in the nation, and don't think they can't score it, either.  Jarrett Culver will be in the NBA next year, Davide Moretti is a 47 percent three-point shooter, and Matt Mooney can make it from outside as well. What makes the Raiders, however, is their defense. If Tech follows St. Mary's blueprint against top-seeded Gonzaga, who it would likely face in the Elite 8, the Raiders will be in good shape. That's exactly what I think they'll do.

Sleeper: Murray State
I was hesitant to call the Racers a "sleeper," because its hard for a player as good as JA Morant to sneak up on anybody. Nonetheless, I think Murray State fits the build of "Cinderella" more than anybody else in the South Region. Buckle up for Morant vs. Marquette's Markus Howard round one.

The Bust: Florida State
I've always liked Leonard Hamilton.  The Noles, however, have the misfortune of facing one of the 10 best players in college basketball, whether that'd be Morant or Howard, in the second round. Good luck with that.


Midwest

Champion: North Carolina  
I don't think I'd get much debate here. The Tar Heels are the best team in this region, and might well be the best in the country. Then again, they might not be the best team in their own conference or state, either.

Sleeper: Seton Hall
I don't see the Pirates getting past the second round. With that said, Seton Hall did beat there would be second-round opponent, Kentucky, earlier this season, and have wins over Marquette (x2) and Villanova. Not to mention, Myles Powell is a stud. So don't be super duper shocked if Seton Hall is still kicking after Sunday.

Bust: Kentucky
Any thing short of a Final Four is a failure for Big Blue Nation. Since I don't see the Wildcats getting past the Sweet 16, I don't envision Wildcats fans being pleased with how this tournament turns out

Final Four
Duke over Texas Tech 
The Red Raiders played Zion and co. tough when these teams met at Madison Square Garden in November, but it never felt like the Dukies were in danger of losing. This game will be a similar story.

Aside from Culver, there are no first-round talents on the Raiders. Duke has three of them, and I think this semifinal game will be a case of talent winning out.

UNC over Tennessee
North Carolina does everything well. It can shoot it, and it can beat you down low, too. The prospect of playing Duke in the championship game for the first time will be too juicy for the Tar Heels to let slip.


Championship 
Duke-UNC
I don't know. I honestly don't know. Both teams are so good, but because Duke will have most of the pressure on it, because UNC is experienced and because they are one of few teams in the country that's close to Duke talent-wise, I'm going with the Tar Heels. I know it can go both ways, and it's the title game I'm hoping for. God I hope we get it.

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