College Football

Thursday, March 17, 2016

NCAA Tournament thoughts and what not

Photo creds to www.nanigans.com
My full bracket, one of several. Some picks may seem contradictory http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/entry?entryID=1621173There are few times in sports more unique than the time between Selection Sunday and the first game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. It is a time that causes great debate (they picked team A over team B?), bold speculation (I think -------- can give --------- a run for their money), and the feeling of hope for all 68 teams involved. The time between Selection Sunday and the official start of the NCAA Tournament (The First Four is just the appetizer) can also be comparable to a William Shakespeare play. Fans and players alike are filled with high hopes, but it is only a matter of time before teams (and brackets) tragically fall to pieces. I have plenty to say about the field of 68, and I will say it right here.

Biggest Omission/Worst Submission: Tulsa over St. Bonaventure
Photo creds to www.bleacherreport.com

Team A has a record of 22-8. Team B has a record of 20-11. Team A has an RPI of #29. Team B has an RPI of #61. Team A has a record of 3-2 against teams in the top 50 for RPI, with all three wins coming against teams ranked #1-25. Team B has a record of 4-4 against top 50 competition. Neither team won the regular season conference title or their conference tournament title, so all they could do was hope for an at-large bid. Guess which team got selected. If you guessed team B, you are sadly correct.

The only things that the committee could have possibly seen in Tulsa (that's team B in case you were not following), is that they have a greater strength of schedule as Tulsa's SOS is 61 compared to St. Bonaventure's 85, as well as the fact that Tulsa has 4 top 50 wins as opposed to St. Bonaventure's 3. However, the committee should have taken into account that Tulsa also has more losses than St. Bonaventure against those teams, with four.

Other more deserving teams that Tulsa stole a bid from were Monmouth, St. Mary's and South Carolina. All four of the snubs mentioned deserve to be in ahead of Syracuse, Pitt, and Vanderbilt, but at least those teams play in high profile conferences. Tulsa plays in Conference USA. 


Now that we got the snubs out of the way, let's break things down region by region.
Most intriguing first round match-up
East Region: #3 West Virginia vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin
Photo creds to sportsposterswag.wordpress.com

This is intriguing for two reasons:
1. It has the potential to be a #14 vs. #3 upset
2. It will be sloppy as sin.
It should be obvious to any college basketball fan that West Virginia likes to press, press, press, and cause a lot of turnovers. Not surprisingly, they are among the nation's leaders in forced turnovers a #2. #1 in that category is none other than their first round opponents.

Stephen F. Austin will not be an easy out. In addition to being able to force mistakes, the Lumberjacks also know how to turn those turnovers into points. SFA's man is Thomas Walkup. The Senior forward leads the team in scoring (17.5 PPG) rebounding (6.8 RPG) and steals (2.1 SPG), and on February 29th against Incarnate Word.  This game could go either way, and an upset is very much in the question. However, if I had to pick just one bracket, I'd take the Mountaineers. Bob Huggins team plays as hard as any in the country, and they are superior to SFA in rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass, as they lead the nation in offensive rebounding. This game will have an abundance of turnovers, so it may be wise to keep a bag to vomit in while watching.
West Region: #5 Baylor vs. #12 Yale
A #5 must go down to a #12 this weekend. What used to be such a frequent occurrence has not taken place in the past two tournaments, and that is due to change. I think Yale could be the team to create that change, but the big reason to me why this match-up is one to watch is simply the fact that Yale is in a tournament game. The last time Yale made it to the big dance was 1962, and back then, March Madness was a shell of what it is today, so this will be the first time Yale takes part in the big dance as we know it. Aside from the sentimental aspect, the Bulldogs have a tough team, and they are all about defense and rebounding. The Bulldogs are 14th in the country in Defensive Efficiency Rating, 21st in offensive rebounding, and 20th in team rebounds per game. The Bulldogs are led by their floor general, Makai Mason. Mason's 15.8 PPG ties him for the team lead with a big boy named Justin Sears. At 6 ft 8, Sears is the team's leading rebounder, averaging 7.5 per game, and joining him in the frontcourt is another big boy named Brandon Sherrod, who averages 12.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG. Sears and Sherrod are both double-double threats on any given night, and they are both seniors. Any team looking to make a deep run as a low seed usually needs to have leadership, and Yale has that.



Much like the SFA-WVU game, this will be a contest between two teams who are very similar.  Like Yale, Baylor is a team that is all about defense and rebounding. The Bears rank 8th in the country in offensive rebounding, lead by a complete stud in 6 ft 8 Rico Gathers, but for some reason, Baylor's success on the offensive glass does not translate to the other side of the court, as the Bears are.... wait for it #283 in the country in defensive rebounding.



If Yale can keep Baylor off the offensive glass well enough, they will win the game, and given the fact that they are 3rd in the nation in opponents offensive rebounding, they have a chance to do just that.   I  believe that if Yale can get past Baylor, they will beat Duke in the next round to advance to the Sweet 16. I don't care that they play in the crap Ivy League. This is a good basketball team that plays defense, and defense wins championships. Like Harvard has done in the past, Yale will prove that some Ivy League teams can make a splash.


Midwest Region: #6 Seton Hall vs. #11 Gonzaga
Isiah Whitehead is one of the players to watch over the weekend. Photo creds to www.thescribemag.com

This is the best first round match-up in the whole tournament. On the one end, we've got a team that is as consistent as any in the country in the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Although the Zags are not as talented as they have been in the past, Mark Few's team knows how to respond to adversity. When Patrick Karnowski went out for the season in late December, it looked like Gonzaga might miss out on the tournament for the first time in Mark Few's coaching tenure.


But Zaga was resilient, and caught fire in the West Coast Conference tournament, defeating St. Mary's (tournament snub) in the finals for an automatic bid. Kyle Wijlter and Domantis Sabonis are two players who will be playing in the NBA next season, and they can explode for 25 and 10 any night of the week. The Zags are jelling at the right time, and it will be interesting to see what they can do.

Not very many people expected the Seton Hall Pirates to make it here. But, led by their excellent point guard, Isiah Whitehead, the Pirates posted a record of 25-8 and won the Big East tournament to earn an automatic bid.

The Pirates are fun to watch. They play hard, and if you've watched Whitehead play, you know that this kid is special. Ever since coming to South Orange as a Five-Star recruit two years ago, Whitehead has lived up to the hype and is unquestionably the heart and soul of the Pirates squad. In the Big East title game against mighty Villanova, Whitehead put the Pirates on his back, scoring 26 points, including a game-winner in the final seconds.

Whitehead, and Sabonis will all be ballin it up in the NBA shortly, so we should all relish watching them on the court at the same time

South Region: #4 Cal vs. #13 Hawaii 
Stefan Jankovic is a force inside. Photo creds to www.warriorinsider.com

Cal has been somewhat disappointing this season. Picked by some to win the Pac 12 before the year started, the Golden Bears failed to do so, and I do not feel that they have gotten the most out of their talent. Jaylen Brown is Cal's main man, and he is one of the better players in college basketball. A projected lottery pick in June's NBA Draft, Brown is not Cal's only star, as he is one of 5 Golden Bears that averages over 10 PPG. Joining Brown in the first round of the draft will be Cal's 6-11 freak, Ivan Rabb. Rabb, who averages 12.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG has all of the tools to be a good pro player.

Despite all of Cal's talent, the Bears have been somewhat underwhelming, finishing with a record of 23-10 and neither a Pac 12 regular season or postseason championship. Luckily, the season wasn't a complete mess (see Vanderbilt Commodores), and Cal ended up receiving a decent #4 seed. Unfortunately for Cal, their first round opponents are more than respectable for their seeding.

Hawaii is a damn good basketball team. The Warriors style of play is very up tempo, and they live to crash the glass. Hawaii is 6th in the country in defensive efficiency, 46th in defensive rebounding, and hold their opponents to 66.5 points per game. Playing Hawaii will be challenging enough, but unfortunately for Cal, they are facing an off the court distraction as well, as they recently let go of one of their assistant coaches, Yann Hufnagel, due to Hufnagel admittingly soliciting sex from a reporter. What do I think Hawaii's chances are for an upset? Well.....


Most likely to be upset before next Monday
East Region: Cal 
Fans may be deprived of watching Cal's Jaylen Brown play beyond the first weekend. 

As soon as I saw this draw, I thought that Hawaii had a decent chance for an upset. It is unfortunate that a troubling situation such as the Hufnagel debacle could increase Cal's chances to be upset, but that's the way sports work sometimes. I still think this matchup can go either way, but I just wonder about the mindset of Cal right now. When a valuable part of the program is gone in the blink of an eye, it is enough to rattle any team, and I would not be surprised if Cal is distracted and  loses a step because of it. Oh, and Cal recently lost their leading scorer, Tyrone Wallace, to a broken hand. That might be important.
West Region: Duke
Grayson Allen and Duke won't make it past the first weekend.Photo creds to www.bleacherreport.com
Let's be real. Duke is not Duke this year. Ten loss seasons do not happen on Tobacco Road and Coach K's team just doesn't have the juice that we are used to seeing them have over the past 30 years. I see the Devils getting past UNC-Wilmington in the first round, but they will be in trouble when they play Baylor or Yale. The last time a Duke team lost 10 times was in 2007, and that season ended in a first-round loss to VCU. I only see the Duke's going a wee bit further this year.


East Region: West Virginia
Devin Williams leads a Mountaineer squad that is boom or bust. Photo creds to kentuckysportsradio.com

West Virginia is awesome. They are a talented team that will go balls to the wall whether they are playing Stephen F. Austin or Kansas. However, as I mentioned above, Stephen F. Austin is strong and can spoil a lot of brackets. If West Virginia wins this game, they can make a deep run. But don't be shocked if the battle of the presses ends up with the little guy pulling it out.
Midwest: Utah
Jakob Poeltl is a man child, but is the team around him talented enough to make a run? Photo creds to fox13now.com

To meet the criteria for this category, a team must be one of the top four seeds in their region. The top four seeds in the Midwest region are Virginia, Michigan State, Utah, and Iowa State. Out of these four teams, Utah is the one least likely to make a run in my opinion. Jakob Poeltl is a giant and a special player, and the Utes have some very quality wins. However, Utah had their underpants pulled down by Oregon in the PAC 12 title game, and I think that exposed their weaknesses somewhat. The Utes are in a rugged region, and I just don't believe they are as good as their fellow top 4 seeds are. It doesn't help that Utah will have to play the winner of the Seton Hall-Gonzaga game, which I believe they will lose.

Team that could shockingly make the Final Four: 
East Region: Kentucky 
Talented Freshman Skal Labissiere is coming on at the right time. Photo creds to www.cbssports.com

Best backcourt in the country. Future NBA players in the front court. One of the most famous programs in history with one of the best coaches in history, oh, and playing it's best basketball right now. John Calipari knows how to get far in the month of March. Losing in the first weekend does not interest him. This man once took a #8 seed to the national championship game, so I'm sure he knows how to take a #4 to the Final Four. The Cats have talent. Tyler Ulis has leadership, as well as an excellent backcourt partner in Jamal Murray. Kentucky has lost a few steps after last year's team set an impossibly high standard, but these are still the Kentucky Wildcats. They are hot, and they are dangerous.
West: Texas A&M
Tyler Davis is a shot blocking machine. Photo creds to www.theadvitiser.com

Technically, a #3 seed making a Final Four run shouldn't be looked at as a surprise, but nobody seems to believe he Aggies can go far. Despite winning the SEC regular season title, the Aggies appear to have a load of skeptics outside of College Station. The skeptics have some ammunition, as A&M doesn't do anything that would make anybody fall out of their chair. However, the Aggies have what every team needs, and that is trust and comradery. Alex Caruso is a supreme leader, and he is a threat on both sides of the ball. Danuel House and Jalen Jones are very athletic in the backcourt, and Tyler Davis is a shot-blocking machine. I don't expect the Aggies to be in the Final Four but don't did see them as a non-threat. Billy Kennedy and A&M know what it takes to win and will get the most out of whatever ability they have.
South: Arizona
Photo creds to www.usatoday.com
You can never dismiss a Sean Miller team as a non-threat. Sure, the Cats have fallen off a bit in a season that once saw them ranked in the top 10, but, like Calipari, Miller knows how to win in March, and his team is talented enough to make a deep run. Gabe York has developed into an excellent guard, Kaleb Tarczewski is a hoss down low, and Ryan Anderson is one of the better all-around power forwards in the country. The Cats proved their grit in the Pac 12 title game against Oregon when they came back from a six-point deficit in the final 20 seconds to force overtime, where they would eventually fall. Arizona has talent in the front court and the back, and they play the game hard. Miller wouldn't have it any other way, and he will be very hard to outcoach.


Midwest: Iowa State
Georges Niang is a stud. Photo creds to amestrib.com

Any team that has wins over both Kansas and Oklahoma has to be looked at as a threat. The Cyclones have looked like a final four team at times, and they've looked piss poor at times. Iowa State runs an NBA style offense that features a very good pick and roll point guard in Monte Morris. Georges Niang is one of the most complete players in the country, while Jameel McKay is the Cyclones defensive stopper in the front court. I do not have Iowa State getting past Virgina in the Sweet 16, but that doesn't mean they can't make some noise. 

Potential Bracket Busters
East Region: Stephen F. Austin
If you have WVU going far, these guys could crash the party.
West Region: St. Joe's
I am a tad biased because I love A-10 teams, but the Hawks have potentional to be lethal for anybody who has picked the Oregon Ducks to go far. The Hawks are a tough team in an underatted conference, and Phill Martelli is an experienced winner. If you don't know DeAndre Bembry's name already, you better learn it fast. The kid can score (17.3 PPG). He can rebound (7.7 RPG) and he can even pass a little for a Small Foward (4.5). As impressive as anything is Bembry's ability to move without the ball, which would make him a great fit for Greg Popovich and the Spurs should he get drafted this summer (and he will). Other players to watch for St. Joes are Isiah Miles (18.4 PPG) and Aaron Brown (10.3 PPG). Whoever is not sold on St. Joes can just ask Dayton or VCU their opinions. Those are two tournament teams that the Hawks defeated back to back in the A-10 toruny. The Hawks are talented, they have momentum, and they have DeAndre Bembry. They might be about to go Duck hunting, so Dana Altman should be very wary.
Midwest: Iona
Of the four teams mentioned that could ruin a bracket, this is probably the least likley to do so due to their strength of scoring also being a strength of their opponents, Iowa State. However, the Cyclones have been very shaky with defense at times this year, and Iona's A.J English may be able to exploit that. English has put up Steph Curry-esque numbers this season, averaging 22.4 PPG and 6.2 assists per game. He will need to get close to those types of numbers for Iona to pull an upset, but he is more than capable. Don't be schokcsd to see the Gales send Iowa State home just like UAB did last year. 

South: Hawaii
As said before, Hawii plays an uptempo style and loves to crash the glass. Hawii is led by Stefan Jankovic, who averages 15.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG as a 6-11 power foward. It will be interesting to see how Jankovic matches up against Ivan Rabb, and it will be interesting to see if the Rainbow Warriors can create gloomy skies for the Golden Bears
Region Champions/MVP's
East: Perry Ellis, Kansas
It's rare for me to say I would be shocked if a team does not make it to the Final Four, but that's exactly how I feel about Rock Chalk. In a year full of crazy upsets and top teams going down, the Jayhawks appear to be the most stable in the midst of all the insanity, and nobody exemplifies their cool style of play  quite like Perry Ellis. Ellis physically looks like he's been playing college basketball for 20 years, and he plays like it, too. Perry is the heart and soul of the KU attack, and a lot of their offense is centered around him. As a senior, Ellis will be well motivated to go out with a bang, and I reckon he will. 



West: Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
Coming from the west region, OU is the only two seed advancing to the Final Four. Although Oregon is on a roll and has a slew of excellent athletes led by Chirs Boucher, but I just think Oklahoma is the more polished team that will be able to match the tempo of the Ducks. Oh, and Buddy Hield is pretty good. Hield is arguably the best player in college basketball, so therefore, he should be an odvious choice for West Regional MVP should the Sooners advance to the Final Four.


Midwest: Malcolm Brodgon, UVA
This region was the toughest for me to pick, as both UVA and Michigan State are great candidates to make it to the Final Four. However, I think Virginia's pack line defense will slow down the vaunted MSU offense just enough pull out the W in the likely event that these two teams meet in the Elite 8. Tony Bennent's Cavs have had great regular seasons the past two years, only to crash out before the Elite 8 come tourney time. I think that this team will be motivated to finally get that Final Four monkey off their back, and Malcolm Brogdon will be the main reason why. Brogdon is as valuable to UVA as any player is to their team in college basketball. He is a senior leader, and he is a good two way player. But what's most impressive about Brodgon is what he does that does not appear anywhere on a stat sheet. Brogdon is able to create mistakes on defense that won't appear on a box score and that can only be appreciated if you follow him closely. Brogdon, along with fellow seniors Anthony Gill and Mike Toby, are on a mission to get UVA to the Final Four for the first time since 1984, and I think the pack line will help them do just that.
East: Tyler Ulis, Kentucky 
The 2016 Kentucky Wildcats are similar to the 2011 Kentucky Wildcats. Both teams struggled to get the most out of their talent level during the regular season before catching fire in the SEC Tournament. Both teams were #4 seeds coming into the tourny. Both teams were led by a stud point guard, with the 2011 Cats led by Brandon Knight and this years team led by Tyler Ulis. The 2011 Cats made it to the Final Four, and Knight was the main reason why. The 2016 team could very well make the Final Four, and if they do, you better believe Tyler Ulis will be the main reason why.

When you beat out a player like Ben Simmons for SEC POY, you are special. Ulis did just that, and he deserved it. #3 is a great defender just like Brodgon, and he is a true point guard on offense, averaging 7,2 assists per game. The Cats are jelling at the right time, and they will ride Tyler Ulis for as far as he will take them


Final Four
#1 Kansas vs. #2 Oklahoma
Round three. The Jayhawks have gotten the best of the Sooners the previous two times these teams have met in the regular season, and I don't expect that to change here. The matchup to watch in this game will be between Wayne Selden and Buddy Hield. Selden is a great defender for Kansas, and he will limit Hield so Buddy can't take over the game. I don't think anybody can stop Kansas from getting Bill Self his second national title. The Jayhakws offense will spread the floor and get Ellis the ball, and it will work to perfection. Ellis will have plenty of open lanes to drive in, and this will lead to a lot of points and a Jayhawk win.

Kansas 80, OU 70

#4 Kentucky vs. #1 Virginia
Ulis vs. Brogdon. This will be a dandy, but I think Ulis comes out on top. Kentucky will be able to shoot the 3 ball over the pack line, and that will be the difference in a close game. Ulis will score 18 points and dish off 8 assists, and Murray will drain 4 3's, thus being the difference in a close Kentucky victory.


UK 71, UVA 68


Title Game
#1 Kansas vs. #4 Kentucky
Midnight will strike for the Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas is a team of destiny, and I don't see any team getting in their way. Perry Ellis will be able to score down low, and Wayne Selden will be able to neutralize either Ulis or Murry well enough Kansas to win the game and earn themselves a place in sports immortality.


Kansas 75, Kentucky 67


Winners and champions: Kansas Jayhawks


Thanks for reading, and happy March!

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