Good teams win, great teams cover: Part VII

Before we get into another week of picking against the spread, here is where we stand.

1.    Rutz: 19-19-1
2.    Jeff: 16-22-1
3.    Joe: 15-23-1
4.    Brad: 14-25
5.    Ryan: 13-24-1
We are still waiting for picks from Brad and Jeff. Hopefully we get them.

Ryan's Picks

College

Dwayne Haskins might have lost his chance at a Heisman Trophy, but he can still sling it enough to lead the Buckeyes to a win over Michigan State. (Photo creds to Cleveland.com)

Tennessee +5 over Kentucky

UK has been stumbling along for weeks.

Texas Tech +2 over Texas. 

Texas Tech can score points as they showed last week against Oklahoma

BC +18.5 against Clemson.

Upset alert! Golden Eagles are on College Gameday and ready to roll.

Ohio State +4 over Michigan states.

This is a tough one to pick given how bad the Buckeyes have been recently, but I think this is a game that Ohio State always circles on the calendar, and Dwayne Haskins will be too much for Sparty.

NFL

Saints -5.5 over Bengals. 

You know this game won't impact Marvin Lewis' job standing

It's about time for the annual Bungles fall off.

Pats -7.5

You already know.

Chargers -10.5 over Raiders

Oakland sucks.

49ers -3 over Giants

Another terrible Monday Night matchup.

Rutz

College

Rutz sees both LSU and Alabama getting wins after last week (Photo creds to www.theadvertiser.com)

LSU -13.5 over Arkansas.

Arkansas. Vandy beat them by two TDs. LSU should win by 30 if they've recovered from Alabama yet.

Alabama -24 over Mississippi State

The Tide are on a mission.

Tennessee +6 over Kentucky.

I suspect the Wildcats will be depressed after last week. This game Will probably be a crappy defensive struggle, that UT will win in an upset.

Georgia -14 over Auburn.

Seems like a no-brainer.

NFL

Patriots -7 over Titans. 

The best team in the AFC can easily cover a touchdown against Marcus Mariota's inconsistent self.

Lions +6.5 over Bears. 

Detroit usually plays Chicago tough, and I expect a hard-fought division game that comes to the wire.

Colts -3 against Jaguars

This is a garbage game between garbage teams, go with the homeboys.

Saints -5.5 against Bengals

New Orleans is sizzling on offense and could blow the roof off Cincinnati, who is mediocre in my opinion.

Joe
College

WVU -12 over TCU

West Virginia still has Big 12 title aspirations, and maybe even a shot at the college football playoff. The Mountaineers will come out firing at home after that thrilling win in Austin last week.

Navy +24.0 vs. UCF
The academy doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this game, but UCF hasn't exactly been blowing teams out of the water this season. Golden Knights by 17. 

Michigan -38 over Rutgers 

I have to hand it to Jim Harbaugh. He has finally built a legitimate national title contender. Rutgers, on the other hand, is an embarrassment. Wolverines by 45. 

Penn State -9.0 over Wisconsin 

Coming in to the season, you would have thought at least one of these teams would be in playoff contention. That hasn't happened. Penn State usually handles Bucky well in Happy Valley, and I expect the same today. 

NFL

Bills +7 over Jets

Just my gut, honestly. These teams suck. 

Bears -6.5 over Lions 

Bear down! Chicago is finally good again, and I think they'll get past the "meh" Lions at home. 

Cardinals -16.5 over Chiefs

I see this as a coming out of sorts for Josh Rosen. KC's defense is suspect, and I think he'll take advantage enough to make this a reasonably close game. 

Eagles -7.5 over Cowboys

Philly is on the brink of breaking away from the rest of the NFC East, and I think the Eagles establish that today. 

3 Takeaways from the Steelers win in Baltimore

By: Donny Chedrick  

Photo creds to TribLive

It was a gutsy win, but a rather dominant one. A win that was more convincing than the 23-16 score showed.

The Steelers outplayed the Ravens in basically every facet of the game Sunday, aside from kicking extra points. Whether it was near 13-minute advantage the Pittsburgh held in possession time, the 130 total yards edge while leading in passing and rushing, or converting 10-16 third downs compared to the 4-12 conversion rate from the Ravens, it was a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. Here on some takeaways from what was the Steelers' most significant win of 2018 thus far.

Domination on the Offensive Front 

Matt Feiler has done an admirable job stepping in at right tackle (photocredsto247sports.com)

It was perhaps the best performance of the season for the offensive line, and that's more impressive considering starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert was out with injury. WithGilbert gone, Pittsburgh turned to Matt Feiler, who ended his Sunday being the 11th ranked tackle out 51 in the NFL that played at least 25 snaps. The whole line posted impressive rankings and spoiler – Feiler was the “worst.”

Out of the 50 guards that played at least 25 snaps Sunday across the league, Ramon Foster and David DeCastro ranked eighth and ninth, respectively.  Left tackle Alejandro Villanueva was the seventh-best tackle out of the 51 that qualified and center Maurkice Pouncey was the second-best middleman in the league against the Ravens. Against one of the best overall defenses in football, the Steelers offensive line stood up to the task.

The defense has figured it out

Stephon Tuitt gets a hand on Joe Flacco (Photo creds to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.)

The Steelers defense didn't force a turnover, but once again, the unit showed improvement. The same defense played the same quarterback (Joe Flacco) in Week 4 and got burned. Week 9 was a different story. The front seven was strong and the secondary, for the most part, limited the big throws for Flacco – although he did get his usual three pass interference calls. In total, the Ravens picked up just 265 total yards, and only 61 on the ground.  It seems that this crew is settling into a spot that was seen a lot last year. Obviously, Ryan Shazier was in the 2017 edition of the Steelers defense, but Jon Bostic has impressed and then some so far this season.

Boswell is still a concern

Those who were expecting big things out of Chris Boswell this year have been MISStaken (Photo creds to Washington Post.)

It should continue to worry Steelers fans that the recently extended, “franchise” kicker has continued to struggle for the first half of the 2018-2019 season after signing his name on the dotted line in the off-season. Although he has still been money on field goal attempts between 20-39 yards, he is 1-4 on kicks more than 40 yards this season, which draws a huge concern. Another, perhaps even bigger problem, is his extra points. Coming into this season, in three years of NFL service,  Boswell missed a total of three PAT's. 26-27 in 2015, 36-36 in 2016, 37-39 with multiple game-winners in 2017. Then there is this year.

22-26, including another miss against the Ravens, a percentage of 84.6 -- by far his worst in his career and the season is only at the halfway point. If the trend continues, it could cost the Steelers wins and a potential run in the playoffs.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part VI

By Joe Smeltzer
The boys are back. I am off this week, so lets see what the rest of our crew has to say about the spread.

Brad
College
Washington State (-10) over Cal
The Cougars' only loss was by three on the road at USC.  They've beaten ranked teams the past two weeks and should get the win against a Bears team on the verge of a letdown.

UAB (-22) over UTSA
 UAB is undefeated in conference play and has a stout defense.  UTSA offense has struggled, while it's defense can't stop a nosebleed.  That's not a good recipe.

Clemson (-40) over Louisville
Yeah, I'm taking Clemson in this one.

UVA (-7.5) over Pitt
 I like UVA in this one.  Pitt has been decent this year, but UVA has been great (for them).  Cavs by 11.

Update: Brad was wrong

NFL

KC (-8) over Cleveland
I think the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL.  That doesn't set up well for the Browns who just fired their head coach and OC.

San Francisco (-3) over Oakland
The Niners aren't good.  Neither are the Raiders.  Give me the home team in this one.

Update: Brad was right

Falcons (+1.5) over Washington 
Atlanta is heating up having won two in a row.  I think it'll win straight up.

Falcons (+1.5) over Washington

The Falcons are heating up having won two in a row.  I think they'll win straight up.

Jeff 
College
Michigan vs. Penn State (+12)
Both of these coaches suck. Both teams will be playing to lose so it will be a close a game. For that, I’ll take Penn State +12.

Kentucky(+9) vs. Georgia
I think the Wildcats are better than people think and pull off an upset vs. Georgia.

West Virginia (+2) vs. Texas
This is a steal. WVU, led by Will Grier, is clearly the better team and will get a big win in Austin.

Alabama(-14.5) vs. LSU 
The Crimson tide will clearly show they are the best team in the country with an absolute slashing of LSU.

NFL
Bears(-10) vs. Bills
Buffalo isn't good, and the Bears are very talented. Easy pick.

Steelers(+3) vs. Ravens
Another steal. Pittsburgh is on a roll, while Baltimore is banged up. Easy money.

Rams (-1.5) vs. Saints
The Rams will win this one by a field goal

Patriots(-5.5) vs. Packers
New England is going to dominate this game and win by 21.


NFL
Bears(-10) vs. Bills- 
Buffalo isn't good, and the Bears are very talented. Easy pick.

Steelers(+3) vs. Ravens- Another steal. Pittsburgh is on a roll, while Baltimore is banged up. Easy money.

Rams (-1.5) vs. Saints- The Rams will win this one by a field goal

Patriots(-5.5) vs. Packers- New England is going to dominate this game and win by 21.

Rutz
College
Virginia Tech (+2) over Boston College

Georgia Tech (-6) over North Carolina
The Tar Heels are utter trash

UGA +9.5 over Kentucky
Georgia should win by 20.

Penn State (+12) over Michigan
Expect a tight Wolverine win


NFL
Seattle -2 over LA
Love the Seahawks at home. They will be the one in 8-1.


Redskins -1.5 over Falcons
Because I'm superstitious

Chiefs -8.5 over Browns
Because the Chiefs are good and the Browns are not good

Titans +6 over Cowboys
Dallas is inconsistent and when in doubt take the points

Penn State-Michigan: Three keys to victory

Two years ago, the Wolverines were supposed to beat Penn State at home, and they did. Last year, Penn State was supposed to beat Michigan at home and did. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, this year's game is at the Big House and is more similar to 2016 than 2017. Michigan has been on fire since its week one loss at Notre Dame, while Penn State has shown itself to be a young team with a lot of growing to do. The Wolverines are favored by 12. Here are three things the Nittany Lions must do to pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Key #1: Win the battle on third down

KJ Hamler needs to be a factor on all downs for Penn State to beat Michigan (Photo creds to The Daily Collegian)

In Penn State's two losses this season, the Nittany Lions went a  combined 6-31 on third down. That's not good. At all. Michigan's defense does most things well, and its been stout on third down,  allowing just a 29-percent conversion rate. Penn State will find itself in plenty of third-down situations, and it will need to find a way to stay on the field.

Key #2: No special teams blunders

Iowa's Dominique Dafney (#23) blocks a punt for an Iowa TD (Photo creds to espn.com)

Two of the Nittany Lions' would-be punts last week turned into safetys, and another was blocked for a touchdown. What else do you need to know? Blake Gillikin is one of the better punters in college football, but he can't do much if a bad snap leaves him unable to field the ball. We saw in the second half of the Pitt game how important special teams can be, and it almost cost the Nittany Lions against Iowa. If Penn State can't snap the ball, that could be a big difference maker in Ann Arbor. 

Key #3: Trace McSorley 

McSorley got hurt last week against Iowa, and it's uncertain what his health will be against Michigan (Photo creds to Philly.com

McSorley has to be Penn State's best player for them to win. That's going to be especially difficult this week due to Michigan's talent on defense and Trace's uncertain status health-wise. McSorley played one of the best games in Penn State history against Ohio State at Beaver Stadium, and it wasn't enough. He's going to have to be at that level against Michigan and that's going to be very difficult to accomplish.

Prediction 

The Nittany Lions have everything going against them. They are on the road against a top-five team that will be looking for blood after last year's massacre in Happy Valley. All of that, combined with Penn State's heart and soul being banged up, makes it hard to believe that the Nittany Lions will cover in the Big House, let alone win. 

Michigan 28, Penn State 14