Penn State-Michigan: Three keys to victory

Two years ago, the Wolverines were supposed to beat Penn State at home, and they did. Last year, Penn State was supposed to beat Michigan at home and did. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, this year's game is at the Big House and is more similar to 2016 than 2017. Michigan has been on fire since its week one loss at Notre Dame, while Penn State has shown itself to be a young team with a lot of growing to do. The Wolverines are favored by 12. Here are three things the Nittany Lions must do to pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Key #1: Win the battle on third down

KJ Hamler needs to be a factor on all downs for Penn State to beat Michigan (Photo creds to The Daily Collegian)

In Penn State's two losses this season, the Nittany Lions went a  combined 6-31 on third down. That's not good. At all. Michigan's defense does most things well, and its been stout on third down,  allowing just a 29-percent conversion rate. Penn State will find itself in plenty of third-down situations, and it will need to find a way to stay on the field.

Key #2: No special teams blunders

Iowa's Dominique Dafney (#23) blocks a punt for an Iowa TD (Photo creds to espn.com)

Two of the Nittany Lions' would-be punts last week turned into safetys, and another was blocked for a touchdown. What else do you need to know? Blake Gillikin is one of the better punters in college football, but he can't do much if a bad snap leaves him unable to field the ball. We saw in the second half of the Pitt game how important special teams can be, and it almost cost the Nittany Lions against Iowa. If Penn State can't snap the ball, that could be a big difference maker in Ann Arbor. 

Key #3: Trace McSorley 

McSorley got hurt last week against Iowa, and it's uncertain what his health will be against Michigan (Photo creds to Philly.com

McSorley has to be Penn State's best player for them to win. That's going to be especially difficult this week due to Michigan's talent on defense and Trace's uncertain status health-wise. McSorley played one of the best games in Penn State history against Ohio State at Beaver Stadium, and it wasn't enough. He's going to have to be at that level against Michigan and that's going to be very difficult to accomplish.

Prediction 

The Nittany Lions have everything going against them. They are on the road against a top-five team that will be looking for blood after last year's massacre in Happy Valley. All of that, combined with Penn State's heart and soul being banged up, makes it hard to believe that the Nittany Lions will cover in the Big House, let alone win. 

Michigan 28, Penn State 14