Good teams win, great teams cover: Part VII

Before we get into another week of picking against the spread, here is where we stand.

1.    Rutz: 19-19-1
2.    Jeff: 16-22-1
3.    Joe: 15-23-1
4.    Brad: 14-25
5.    Ryan: 13-24-1
We are still waiting for picks from Brad and Jeff. Hopefully we get them.

Ryan's Picks

College

Dwayne Haskins might have lost his chance at a Heisman Trophy, but he can still sling it enough to lead the Buckeyes to a win over Michigan State. (Photo creds to Cleveland.com)

Tennessee +5 over Kentucky

UK has been stumbling along for weeks.

Texas Tech +2 over Texas. 

Texas Tech can score points as they showed last week against Oklahoma

BC +18.5 against Clemson.

Upset alert! Golden Eagles are on College Gameday and ready to roll.

Ohio State +4 over Michigan states.

This is a tough one to pick given how bad the Buckeyes have been recently, but I think this is a game that Ohio State always circles on the calendar, and Dwayne Haskins will be too much for Sparty.

NFL

Saints -5.5 over Bengals. 

You know this game won't impact Marvin Lewis' job standing

It's about time for the annual Bungles fall off.

Pats -7.5

You already know.

Chargers -10.5 over Raiders

Oakland sucks.

49ers -3 over Giants

Another terrible Monday Night matchup.

Rutz

College

Rutz sees both LSU and Alabama getting wins after last week (Photo creds to www.theadvertiser.com)

LSU -13.5 over Arkansas.

Arkansas. Vandy beat them by two TDs. LSU should win by 30 if they've recovered from Alabama yet.

Alabama -24 over Mississippi State

The Tide are on a mission.

Tennessee +6 over Kentucky.

I suspect the Wildcats will be depressed after last week. This game Will probably be a crappy defensive struggle, that UT will win in an upset.

Georgia -14 over Auburn.

Seems like a no-brainer.

NFL

Patriots -7 over Titans. 

The best team in the AFC can easily cover a touchdown against Marcus Mariota's inconsistent self.

Lions +6.5 over Bears. 

Detroit usually plays Chicago tough, and I expect a hard-fought division game that comes to the wire.

Colts -3 against Jaguars

This is a garbage game between garbage teams, go with the homeboys.

Saints -5.5 against Bengals

New Orleans is sizzling on offense and could blow the roof off Cincinnati, who is mediocre in my opinion.

Joe
College

WVU -12 over TCU

West Virginia still has Big 12 title aspirations, and maybe even a shot at the college football playoff. The Mountaineers will come out firing at home after that thrilling win in Austin last week.

Navy +24.0 vs. UCF
The academy doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this game, but UCF hasn't exactly been blowing teams out of the water this season. Golden Knights by 17. 

Michigan -38 over Rutgers 

I have to hand it to Jim Harbaugh. He has finally built a legitimate national title contender. Rutgers, on the other hand, is an embarrassment. Wolverines by 45. 

Penn State -9.0 over Wisconsin 

Coming in to the season, you would have thought at least one of these teams would be in playoff contention. That hasn't happened. Penn State usually handles Bucky well in Happy Valley, and I expect the same today. 

NFL

Bills +7 over Jets

Just my gut, honestly. These teams suck. 

Bears -6.5 over Lions 

Bear down! Chicago is finally good again, and I think they'll get past the "meh" Lions at home. 

Cardinals -16.5 over Chiefs

I see this as a coming out of sorts for Josh Rosen. KC's defense is suspect, and I think he'll take advantage enough to make this a reasonably close game. 

Eagles -7.5 over Cowboys

Philly is on the brink of breaking away from the rest of the NFC East, and I think the Eagles establish that today. 

3 Takeaways from the Steelers win in Baltimore

By: Donny Chedrick  

Photo creds to TribLive

It was a gutsy win, but a rather dominant one. A win that was more convincing than the 23-16 score showed.

The Steelers outplayed the Ravens in basically every facet of the game Sunday, aside from kicking extra points. Whether it was near 13-minute advantage the Pittsburgh held in possession time, the 130 total yards edge while leading in passing and rushing, or converting 10-16 third downs compared to the 4-12 conversion rate from the Ravens, it was a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. Here on some takeaways from what was the Steelers' most significant win of 2018 thus far.

Domination on the Offensive Front 

Matt Feiler has done an admirable job stepping in at right tackle (photocredsto247sports.com)

It was perhaps the best performance of the season for the offensive line, and that's more impressive considering starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert was out with injury. WithGilbert gone, Pittsburgh turned to Matt Feiler, who ended his Sunday being the 11th ranked tackle out 51 in the NFL that played at least 25 snaps. The whole line posted impressive rankings and spoiler – Feiler was the “worst.”

Out of the 50 guards that played at least 25 snaps Sunday across the league, Ramon Foster and David DeCastro ranked eighth and ninth, respectively.  Left tackle Alejandro Villanueva was the seventh-best tackle out of the 51 that qualified and center Maurkice Pouncey was the second-best middleman in the league against the Ravens. Against one of the best overall defenses in football, the Steelers offensive line stood up to the task.

The defense has figured it out

Stephon Tuitt gets a hand on Joe Flacco (Photo creds to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.)

The Steelers defense didn't force a turnover, but once again, the unit showed improvement. The same defense played the same quarterback (Joe Flacco) in Week 4 and got burned. Week 9 was a different story. The front seven was strong and the secondary, for the most part, limited the big throws for Flacco – although he did get his usual three pass interference calls. In total, the Ravens picked up just 265 total yards, and only 61 on the ground.  It seems that this crew is settling into a spot that was seen a lot last year. Obviously, Ryan Shazier was in the 2017 edition of the Steelers defense, but Jon Bostic has impressed and then some so far this season.

Boswell is still a concern

Those who were expecting big things out of Chris Boswell this year have been MISStaken (Photo creds to Washington Post.)

It should continue to worry Steelers fans that the recently extended, “franchise” kicker has continued to struggle for the first half of the 2018-2019 season after signing his name on the dotted line in the off-season. Although he has still been money on field goal attempts between 20-39 yards, he is 1-4 on kicks more than 40 yards this season, which draws a huge concern. Another, perhaps even bigger problem, is his extra points. Coming into this season, in three years of NFL service,  Boswell missed a total of three PAT's. 26-27 in 2015, 36-36 in 2016, 37-39 with multiple game-winners in 2017. Then there is this year.

22-26, including another miss against the Ravens, a percentage of 84.6 -- by far his worst in his career and the season is only at the halfway point. If the trend continues, it could cost the Steelers wins and a potential run in the playoffs.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part VI

By Joe Smeltzer
The boys are back. I am off this week, so lets see what the rest of our crew has to say about the spread.

Brad
College
Washington State (-10) over Cal
The Cougars' only loss was by three on the road at USC.  They've beaten ranked teams the past two weeks and should get the win against a Bears team on the verge of a letdown.

UAB (-22) over UTSA
 UAB is undefeated in conference play and has a stout defense.  UTSA offense has struggled, while it's defense can't stop a nosebleed.  That's not a good recipe.

Clemson (-40) over Louisville
Yeah, I'm taking Clemson in this one.

UVA (-7.5) over Pitt
 I like UVA in this one.  Pitt has been decent this year, but UVA has been great (for them).  Cavs by 11.

Update: Brad was wrong

NFL

KC (-8) over Cleveland
I think the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL.  That doesn't set up well for the Browns who just fired their head coach and OC.

San Francisco (-3) over Oakland
The Niners aren't good.  Neither are the Raiders.  Give me the home team in this one.

Update: Brad was right

Falcons (+1.5) over Washington 
Atlanta is heating up having won two in a row.  I think it'll win straight up.

Falcons (+1.5) over Washington

The Falcons are heating up having won two in a row.  I think they'll win straight up.

Jeff 
College
Michigan vs. Penn State (+12)
Both of these coaches suck. Both teams will be playing to lose so it will be a close a game. For that, I’ll take Penn State +12.

Kentucky(+9) vs. Georgia
I think the Wildcats are better than people think and pull off an upset vs. Georgia.

West Virginia (+2) vs. Texas
This is a steal. WVU, led by Will Grier, is clearly the better team and will get a big win in Austin.

Alabama(-14.5) vs. LSU 
The Crimson tide will clearly show they are the best team in the country with an absolute slashing of LSU.

NFL
Bears(-10) vs. Bills
Buffalo isn't good, and the Bears are very talented. Easy pick.

Steelers(+3) vs. Ravens
Another steal. Pittsburgh is on a roll, while Baltimore is banged up. Easy money.

Rams (-1.5) vs. Saints
The Rams will win this one by a field goal

Patriots(-5.5) vs. Packers
New England is going to dominate this game and win by 21.


NFL
Bears(-10) vs. Bills- 
Buffalo isn't good, and the Bears are very talented. Easy pick.

Steelers(+3) vs. Ravens- Another steal. Pittsburgh is on a roll, while Baltimore is banged up. Easy money.

Rams (-1.5) vs. Saints- The Rams will win this one by a field goal

Patriots(-5.5) vs. Packers- New England is going to dominate this game and win by 21.

Rutz
College
Virginia Tech (+2) over Boston College

Georgia Tech (-6) over North Carolina
The Tar Heels are utter trash

UGA +9.5 over Kentucky
Georgia should win by 20.

Penn State (+12) over Michigan
Expect a tight Wolverine win


NFL
Seattle -2 over LA
Love the Seahawks at home. They will be the one in 8-1.


Redskins -1.5 over Falcons
Because I'm superstitious

Chiefs -8.5 over Browns
Because the Chiefs are good and the Browns are not good

Titans +6 over Cowboys
Dallas is inconsistent and when in doubt take the points

Penn State-Michigan: Three keys to victory

Two years ago, the Wolverines were supposed to beat Penn State at home, and they did. Last year, Penn State was supposed to beat Michigan at home and did. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, this year's game is at the Big House and is more similar to 2016 than 2017. Michigan has been on fire since its week one loss at Notre Dame, while Penn State has shown itself to be a young team with a lot of growing to do. The Wolverines are favored by 12. Here are three things the Nittany Lions must do to pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Key #1: Win the battle on third down

KJ Hamler needs to be a factor on all downs for Penn State to beat Michigan (Photo creds to The Daily Collegian)

In Penn State's two losses this season, the Nittany Lions went a  combined 6-31 on third down. That's not good. At all. Michigan's defense does most things well, and its been stout on third down,  allowing just a 29-percent conversion rate. Penn State will find itself in plenty of third-down situations, and it will need to find a way to stay on the field.

Key #2: No special teams blunders

Iowa's Dominique Dafney (#23) blocks a punt for an Iowa TD (Photo creds to espn.com)

Two of the Nittany Lions' would-be punts last week turned into safetys, and another was blocked for a touchdown. What else do you need to know? Blake Gillikin is one of the better punters in college football, but he can't do much if a bad snap leaves him unable to field the ball. We saw in the second half of the Pitt game how important special teams can be, and it almost cost the Nittany Lions against Iowa. If Penn State can't snap the ball, that could be a big difference maker in Ann Arbor. 

Key #3: Trace McSorley 

McSorley got hurt last week against Iowa, and it's uncertain what his health will be against Michigan (Photo creds to Philly.com

McSorley has to be Penn State's best player for them to win. That's going to be especially difficult this week due to Michigan's talent on defense and Trace's uncertain status health-wise. McSorley played one of the best games in Penn State history against Ohio State at Beaver Stadium, and it wasn't enough. He's going to have to be at that level against Michigan and that's going to be very difficult to accomplish.

Prediction 

The Nittany Lions have everything going against them. They are on the road against a top-five team that will be looking for blood after last year's massacre in Happy Valley. All of that, combined with Penn State's heart and soul being banged up, makes it hard to believe that the Nittany Lions will cover in the Big House, let alone win. 

Michigan 28, Penn State 14

Love him or hate him, fresh Lev could lead Steelers to promised land.

Despite his attitude, Le'Veon Bell could be a huge complement to the emerging James Conner if he returns to the Steelers this season (Photo creds to Complex)

By Donny Chedrick
We're all tired of Le’Veon Bell.

It’s understandable. The guy has toyed with the Steelers since early in the off-season when he refused to sign his franchise tender for 2018. Steelers fans either want the Steelers to trade Bell or not play Bell even if he does come back to the team this year, but I'd advise trying to look at things from a different perspective. If Bell wants his money, he could do that while also helping the Steelers achieve their goal of a seventh Lombardi Trophy.

There are many “ifs” that go into this situation, but the expectation is that the star running back will return to the Steelers by Week 10 to satisfy his year of service in the NFL. If he doesn't do so, Bell could be hit with the dreaded franchise tag again next year. Bell is the last person that would want to deal with that, therefore, I don’t see it as a very likely possibility. To our knowledge, the Steelers haven't received a trade proposal that is intriguing enough for them or Bell, but that doesn't mean he isn’t a hot commodity amongst NFL teams.

Those teams are aware that the Steelers are growing tired of Bell and likely won't reach a deal with him at the end of the year. It's possible that a desperate franchise will give Bell his desired $17+ million in the off-season, but he still must prove something to NFL teams. So, part of that leads to the next “if.”

If Bell can play well with others upon his return, he will help himself the Steelers. In his absence, Pittsburgh's rushing attack has been led by fan-favorite and cancer survivor, James Conner. As much of an inspiration Conner has been off the field, he’s becoming a pretty good player on it as well. Through the first part of the season, Conner has been up to par with what Bell did in the first part of 2017-2018. In a tweet by Adam Spinks prior to this past Sunday's win over Cleveland-- in which Conner put up 212 yards of today offense--  a side-by-side comparison of Bell's 2017 and Conner's 2018 is shown, and the numbers are staggeringly close.

Bell has the advantage of rushing and receiving success by just a few percentage points, but Conner has a higher percentage of 10, 15 and 20+ yard rushes – coming in with 5% of his carries going for 20+ over the course of the first six weeks of 2018, opposed to a measly 1 percent of Bell’s carries going for 20+ yards last season in the same time span. Some other key ingredients to stew over are the short-yardage conversion (3rd or 4th down and 3 or less) numbers as well as the amount of times the two ran the football with over eight defenders in the box. Conner has a significant lead in both. 71 percent of the time through the first six weeks Conner converted on short-yardage situations compared to Bell converting those same situations 66 percent of the time.

Now, this isn’t saying that Conner is a better back than Bell, but it shows that Bell’s replacement can hold his own. Therefore, the most exciting part is if/when these two share a backfield. Getting Bell back will give the Steelers two potent runners with different styles that create a true one-two punch behind Ben Roethlisberger. If the two runners can play well together, big rushing numbers could come out of the Pittsburgh backfield.

Now, the final “if.”

If Conner's numbers begin to flatten and his play starts to deteriorate towards the end of the regular season, Bell can be there to light a spark and carry the Steelers offense. A case could be made in the past that Bell was the single-most important piece to the team’s success. Whether or not that is true, Bell could make people believe again if he were to step in and show his skills predominantly as a solo act yet again.

Something that every team looks for when the season nears the end is a set of fresh legs. Bell has that. Every team looks for a playmaker near seasons end. Bell is that. Most importantly, the Steelers want a championship, and Bell could help them achieve that.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part V

By Joe Smeltzer
Week five of picking is here. Let's get into it. 

Joe
College

Clemson: -17 over Florida State
The Tigers came in as three-touchdown favorites last week against NC State, and I thought Ryan Finley and the Wolfpack would cover. I was wrong. I won't get fooled again.

Syracuse: +2.0 over NC State
As I mentioned above, NC State betrayed me last week. Maybe that beatdown in Death Valley was a sign that the Wolfpack's hot start to the season was a product of a favorable schedule. I still think NC State is an 8-9 win team, but I have my doubts that the Wolf Pack will shake off last week in an environment like the Carrier Dome. Eric Dungy will give State's defense trouble, and I also wouldn't be surprised if the Orange made some plays on defense.

NC State's offense puts up points but is one dimensional, and I think Syracuse can take advantage of that and force Finley to make a mistake. If that happens, I like the Orange.

Missouri: -7.5 over Kentucky
Drew Locke is the real deal, and my gut tells me he's going to go off on the Wild Cats.

Iowa: +5.5 over Penn State
Penn State hasn't looked impressive all season, while Iowa has emerged as a contender to win the Big 10 West. Two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes mulled the same Indiana team that the Nittany Lions struggled with last week, and their defense could make like difficult for Trace McSorley.

Iowa's pass rush, led by Anthony Nelson and A.J. Espensa, is tough, and the secondary has intercepted nine passes on the season. The weather could play to Penn State's advantage since it's supposed to rain and the Nittany Lions, led by Miles Sanders, have a better running game than the Hawkeyes. If Penn State refuses to run the ball, which happened last week, then the recent offensive struggles might continue. If that happens, take Iowa.

NFL
Bears: -8 over Jets
Chicago is a solid football team and proved that last week even in a losing effort against New England. The Bears have playmakers on both sides of the ball, while New York is still a work in progress. I see a cozy two TD win for Chicago. Bear down.

Bengals: -3.5 over Bucs
Coming off two straight brutal losses, I expect a bounce back from Cincy. Going from playing two of the best teams in the AFC to a mediocre Tampa Bay squad will benefit the Bengals. A.J. Green will outplay Mike Evans, Andy Dalton will outplay Jameis Winston, and Cincy will get back to its winning ways, at least for temporarily.

Denver: +9.5 over KC
The Broncos' defense will ride the momentum from last Thursday night and keep this one close in Arrowhead.

Browns: +8.5 over Steelers
Cleveland tied Pittsburgh with Tyrod Taylor at QB, so yeah, the Browns can come within a touchdown of the Steelers with Baker Mayfield in charge. Believe that.

Rutz 
NFL
Jets: +8 over Chicago 
The Bears shouldn't be touchdown favorites over anybody,

Philly: -3 over Jacksonville 
The Jags are falling apart

Redskins: -1 over Giants 
Washington is in first place, so it seems like a one-point spread against the lowly Giants is a gift. However, I still see the Redskins screwing this up

Chiefs: -9 over Denver 
Until somebody stops Patrick Mahomes, I'll pick KC to cover against everybody.

College
Georgia: -7 over Florida 
The Bulldogs are rested and ready to rock

Vanderbilt: -1.5 over Arkansas
I know my alma mater is bad, but Arkansas is awful

Kentucky: +7.5 over Missouri
No respect for the Cats still

Tennessee: +7.5 over South Carolina 
I love that half point.

Brad
NFL
Browns (+8.5) over Steelers
I think the Steelers will win, but not by eight and a half. 

Colts (-3) over Raiders 
Oakland has no offense after losing Lynch and Cooper, and their defense is horrible. 

49ers (-1.5) over Arizona
The Cardinals suck and I see the Niners winning by double digits.  K

KC (-9.5) over Denver
Pat Mahomes goes off in Arrowhead in a divisional rivalry game.

College
Purdue (-1) over Michigan State
Just watch the Purdue-Ohio State game. 

UVA (-8.5) over UNC 
UNC stinks.

Iowa (+5.5) over Penn State
Penn St may win, but they definitely won't cover.

Duke (-2.5) over Pitt
Duke doesn't lose two games in a row.  Duke by eleven.



Ryan 
College
Arkansas: +1 vs Vandy
Vandy plays to the level of its opponents. Arkansas gets a home win and Mason is fired end of the year after winless SEC season. 

FSU: + 18 over Clemson
FSU has played better of late. Clemson is overrated. 

Kentucky: + 7.5 over Mizzou
Surprised by that spread.  Mizzou is better than their record but UK is a fast and athletic team.  Texas A&M: +1.5 over Mississippi State.

Tampa Bay +3.5 over Cincinnati
Time for the annual Bengals slide.

KC -9.5 over Broncos
Kansas City scores too many points. Denver offense is bad. 

Panthers +2.5 over Ravens
Give me the Panthers plus points at home. 

Saints - 1.5 over Vikings 
Vikings haven't looked as good as I expected, New Orleans has been cruising since squeaking one out against my Browns.

2018 World Series preview/prediction

Photo creds to footwear news

By Joe Smeltzer
For the first time in more than a century, the Boston Red Sox and LA Dodgers (formerly the Brooklyn Robins) will face off in the World Series. It's not always the case that the two World Series opponents are the best teams in their respective leagues, but I think that is true for 2018. Here is a preview of what Joseph Arthur Smeltzer believes will happen in each game. Let's get into it.

Game 1
Chris Sale (9-5, 2.73 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA)

Boston has one of baseball's best going for it in Game 1 (Photo creds to Sporting News)

This is as good a pitching matchup as you'll see in baseball. While both pitchers give their teams the best possible chance to win any night, Sale's experience and dominance at Fenway Park gives Boston the edge in Game 1. Sale is 4-2 with a 2.11 ERA at home, and he'll be backed by the best lineup in baseball. All four of LA's postseason losses have come against left-handers, and that's a trend that will continue tonight.  I see the Red Sox getting to Kershaw early and Sale's arm making that lead hold up.

Boston 4, LA 2

Game 2
David Price (16-7 3.58 ERA) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97 ERA)

The Price is right (photo creds to The Salem News). 

For much of his career, David Price has been criticized by many (myself included) for his postseason shortcomings. Price silenced his critics in the ALCS clinching win over Houston, pitching six shutout innings on three-days rest. I think that Price turned a corner at Minute Maid Park, and his form will carry over into the fall classic.

Ryu's numbers speak for themselves, and I expect him to keep the Red Sox at bay. One mistake, however, could decide this game, and either Ryu or somebody in the Dodgers bullpen will be the one to flinch.


Boston 2, LA 1

Game 3

Photo creds to The Stranger

Walker Beuhler (8-5, 2.62 ERA) vs. TBD (Likely either Rick Porcello or Nathan Eovaldi
The Dodgers will be refreshed going back home after an off day, and the have the right starting pitcher going for them. Buehler has been good, but not great in the postseason with a 3.86 era in two starts. He's due to pitch a gem, and at home down 0-2 is the perfect platform to do so. If Alex Cora decides to pitch the red-hot Eovaldi, Boston will keep this game close, but assuming he goes with the more experienced Porcello, LA's offense will break out.


Dodgers 5, Red Sox 1

Game 4
TBD vs. TBH (Eovaldi vs. Hill?)

The face of a champion (photo creds to ESPN)

I'd be surprised if anybody other than Rich Hill starts for LA. For Boston, whoever doesn't start game three between Porcello and Eovaldi will likely get the nod for game four. So assuming that Eovaldi vs. Hill is the pitching matchup, I'm giving the edge to the Sox.

Rich Hill is excellent, especially for his age, but at 38, he isn't as durable as he used to be. Hill hasn't pitched beyond the fifth inning in either of his playoff starts, while Eovaldi is 10 years younger and has pitched no fewer than six frames in October, not counting his relief appearance in game five of the ALCS.

Hill will depart after the fifth inning, and then Boston's offense will (finally) break out against the Dodgers bullpen. Eovaldi will give up two runs over seven strong, and Boston will grab a stranglehold of the fall classic.


Red Sox 7, Dodgers 2

Game 5
Kershaw vs. Sale Part II

Clayton Kershaw isn't losing twice in five days. That's just not happening.

Dodgers 3, Red Sox 0

Game 6

Price vs. Ryu Part II

The Dodgers will have momentum heading back to Boston after riding Kershaw's arm in game five, but it won't last. Price will vanquish his playoff failures once and for all with another gem, and Boston's offense will pound Ryu at Fenway. As good as Ryu is, Boston will be pumped up, and the offense will feed of a crowd that knows a world title is imminent.

This is Boston's year. These Red Sox were the best team in the regular season, still had doubters in the American League postseason, and put away two 100-win teams on their way to the fall classic. LA's playoff frustrations will continue, and Alex Cora will cap maybe the greatest season ever for a rookie manager with a World Series win. Boston will party like it's 1916.

Red Sox 9, Dodgers 3

Winners and new World Champions: Boston Red Sox. 

Photo creds to ebay.com