Win tonight could mean big things for Penn State

The mood for tonight's game against Michigan is quite different from what the college football world expected it to be back in August.

Before the season, the common thought was that Michigan was a national championship contender, while Penn State would be a team in transition without Trace McSorley, having come off an unremarkable 9-4 season in 2018.

Yet as the year has unfolded, the perception of both teams has changed. Michigan is 5-1 but has been underwhelming thanks to a shaky offense. Penn State, on the other hand, is 6-0 and has looked pretty good in most of those wins. The Nittany Lions comes into tonight's "White Out" game as eight-point favorites. If they win tonight, something big could be happening in Central PA. Something much bigger than people expected before the year.

If the Nittany Lions can pull one out against Michigan, every remaining game, aside from the one at Ohio State Nov. 23, should be a win.
That means that, if all goes the way it's supposed to, Penn State will finish the regular season with 11 wins for the first time since 2008, and have a decent shot at its second Rose Bowl appearance in four years.

That's not to say that all of Penn State's remaining opponents are easy.  Minnesota is the best its been in years under PJ Fleck, and although Michigan State has been disappointing, no trip to East Lansing is easy, especially considering Penn State will come in beat up after facing Iowa and Michigan's defenses in consecutive weeks. Nonetheless, both Michigan State and Minnesota are games Penn State should win, so all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Michigan tonight to have an inside track at 11-1.

If Penn State loses to Jim Harbaugh, however, who knows what that will mean for the rest of the season? A loss at home, in a White Out against a good but beatable opponent, could crush the spirits of a young team. That loss of confidence could turn an 11 win season into a nine-win season, which would leave fans feeling underwhelmed, to say the least.

In any case, whatever Penn State does won't win them the Big 10 unless they can upset Ohio State in Columbus. This is obviously a tall order, as the Buckeyes might be the best team in the country, but the last three games between Penn State and Ohio State have been among the closest and most entertaining in college football over that time, so we can expect another tight one around Thanksgiving. If Penn State is undefeated by the time it rolls into Colombus and can pull out a win, then, our dreams can move to those of a national championship.

Last week's win at Iowa was great, but the lights are brighter this week. If Penn State beats Michigan, there's no reason it shouldn't finish 11-1. If it loses, however, more disappointment could be in order, just like 2018.