Win tonight could mean big things for Penn State

The mood for tonight's game against Michigan is quite different from what the college football world expected it to be back in August.

Before the season, the common thought was that Michigan was a national championship contender, while Penn State would be a team in transition without Trace McSorley, having come off an unremarkable 9-4 season in 2018.

Yet as the year has unfolded, the perception of both teams has changed. Michigan is 5-1 but has been underwhelming thanks to a shaky offense. Penn State, on the other hand, is 6-0 and has looked pretty good in most of those wins. The Nittany Lions comes into tonight's "White Out" game as eight-point favorites. If they win tonight, something big could be happening in Central PA. Something much bigger than people expected before the year.

If the Nittany Lions can pull one out against Michigan, every remaining game, aside from the one at Ohio State Nov. 23, should be a win.
That means that, if all goes the way it's supposed to, Penn State will finish the regular season with 11 wins for the first time since 2008, and have a decent shot at its second Rose Bowl appearance in four years.

That's not to say that all of Penn State's remaining opponents are easy.  Minnesota is the best its been in years under PJ Fleck, and although Michigan State has been disappointing, no trip to East Lansing is easy, especially considering Penn State will come in beat up after facing Iowa and Michigan's defenses in consecutive weeks. Nonetheless, both Michigan State and Minnesota are games Penn State should win, so all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Michigan tonight to have an inside track at 11-1.

If Penn State loses to Jim Harbaugh, however, who knows what that will mean for the rest of the season? A loss at home, in a White Out against a good but beatable opponent, could crush the spirits of a young team. That loss of confidence could turn an 11 win season into a nine-win season, which would leave fans feeling underwhelmed, to say the least.

In any case, whatever Penn State does won't win them the Big 10 unless they can upset Ohio State in Columbus. This is obviously a tall order, as the Buckeyes might be the best team in the country, but the last three games between Penn State and Ohio State have been among the closest and most entertaining in college football over that time, so we can expect another tight one around Thanksgiving. If Penn State is undefeated by the time it rolls into Colombus and can pull out a win, then, our dreams can move to those of a national championship.

Last week's win at Iowa was great, but the lights are brighter this week. If Penn State beats Michigan, there's no reason it shouldn't finish 11-1. If it loses, however, more disappointment could be in order, just like 2018.

Good teams win, great teams cover part VII

You know the drill. Here we go 

Brad

College

Florida (-5) over South Carolina

South Carolina's upset over Georgia was historic. The Gamecocks will suffer a hangover at home, as Florida knows a win is necessary to stay in the running in the SEC East.

Missouri (-21) over Vanderbilt 

God Vandy is awful. It lost at home by 24 against UNLV. UNLV has made one bowl game since 2000 and hasn't come close before or after its only bowl appearance of the decade in... 2013. Enough said.

Arizona State (+13.5) over Utah 

I see a good, high-scoring game in Salt Lake City.

NFL

Chiefs (-3) over Broncos (Correct)

Texans (even) over Colts

The spread has this as the game of the week and with good reason. The difference lies in the quarterback position. Deshaun Watson is better than Jacoby Brissett. Houston 27, Indy 23. 

Ravens (+3.5) over Seahawks 

Lamar gets a big win over a good team, cementing himself as a top 10 and arguably top five QB in this league.

Jeff

College

Ohio State (-28.5) over Northwestern (Right)

You know why 

South Carolina (+5) over Florida

LSU (-18.5) over Mississippi State

LSU is good. Too good for Joe Moorhead.

NFL

Broncos (+3) over Chiefs

Rams (-3) over Falcons 

The Rams have struggled, but the Falcons have struggled worse. Atlanta won't stop LA's offense 

Jags (-3.5) over Bengals 

I honestly don't think the Bengals will win a game. 

Joe 

College

Wisconsin (-31) over Illinois 

Wisconsin's defense is possibly the best in the country, and its offense can run it down Illinois' throat. Easy money. 

App State (-15.5) over UL Monroe 

The Sun Belt is getting some love. App State is ranked, and UL Monroe is mediocre. Three touchdowns won't be a problem.

Michigan (+8) against Penn State 

I see Penn State winning this game, but the trend of lopsided match ups between these two teams is due to come to a stop. Lions by six in a slugfest. 

NFL

Giants (-3.0) over Cardinals 

Last week's win was draining for Arizona. This Giants team is getting healthy, and getting better. The returns of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram will spark New York to a win, and earn them a tie for second in the NFC East as either Philly or Dallas will lose to the other.

49ers (-10.0) over Redskins 

The 49ers know how to win and know how to look good doing it. Washington knows how to suck. 

Dolphins (+17.0) against Bills

Buffalo should win this game without much of an issue. However, 17 points is a lot of points. Not sure I trust the Bills offense enough to whip Miami that badly. 

Good teams win, great teams cover Part VI

Big day for Jalen Hurts and the Sooners (Photo creds to foxnews.com)

We're well into October. This is when things get fun. Let's get into it.

Jeff is on a sabbatical, so Joe and Brad will run the show this week. More for me and you. 

Brad

College

Notre Dame (-11) over USC

In a spite game for Notre Dame, the Irish take over in the second half.

Florida (+13.5) over LSU

The Tigers will win, but it will be a one possession nail biter.

Alabama (-17) over Texas A&M

Either A&M will pull a shocking upset, or the Tide will roll by 30+. I'm betting on Bama.

NFL 

Seahawks (-1.5) over Browns 

Baker isn't clutch

Dolphins (+3.5) over Redskins 

I legitimately have more faith in the Dolphins than the Redskins 

Chargers (-6.5) over Steelers 

I typically bet against the Steelers. It worked last year, but I stopped when the Steelers started to suck. Now, I'm going to bet against them this week. Hopefully it works. 

Joe

College

Texas (+10.5) over Oklahoma 

This game will be decided by a touchdown or fewer. These two teams are too good for the Sooners to just run away with it. 

Wisconsin (-10) over Michigan State

The Badgers are the second best team in the Big 10. Jonathan Taylor will do his thing against an underwhelming Michigan State team.

Iowa (+3.5) over Penn State
I never trust Penn State in Iowa city. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the Hawkeye defense making life hard for Sean Clifford.

NFL
Cowboys (-7) over Jets
Three of the Jets' four losses have come by two touchdowns or more. Dallas is a good team, so I don't see this one being decided by a touchdown or fewer.

Packers (-4.0) over Lions
Rodgers at Lambeau. Don't think Detroit has an answer.

Cardinals (+2.5) over Falcons
Atlanta hasn't won a road game all year. This is a good time for Kyler Murray to have a big game and add to the misery of a franchise that blew the Super Bowl just two years ago. 

Steelers' hope lies in the North's ineptitude

Photo creds to Behind the Steel Curtain 

At 6:00 Sunday evening, I thought the Steelers were done.

1-4. 1.5 games out of first place. There was no reason to believe that Pittsburgh can get off the canvas. The Steelers needed to beat the hated dirty birds at home and didn't do it.
By midnight Tuesday morning,  the Cleveland Browns changed my mind when they got embarrassed in primetime in the City by the Bay. The Browns reminded me that the AFC North is terrible.

Now, I'm not suggesting that the Steelers will win the division. This team has a lot of work to do to make that happen and will have to do so with somebody not named Ben Roethlisberger as its field general. What I'm saying is that the AFC North is so bad, it'd be unfair not to think the Steelers at least have a chance. Not a great chance, but maybe a chance similar to the shot I have of getting married before the age of 30. Not great, but not entirely unreasonable.

Sure, the Ravens got a win in Heinz Field Sunday, but did Baltimore impress anybody? The birdies needed overtime to fend off Devlin Hodges. At 3-2, the Ravens record is bland, and so is their resume. Their two other wins have been against a Dolphins team that's the worst in the NFL and a
Cardinals squad in transition, the latter of which was a six-point squeaker in Baltimore.

The Browns were thought by some to be Super Bowl contenders. Instead, they are 2-3 with two of their losses coming by an average of 29 points. In one of Cleveland's wins, however, it put up 40 points against the Ravens in Baltimore. So yeah, the first place Ravens are quite vulnerable, and they're currently the kings of the North.

Coming into the season, every team in the division sans Cincinitti was a projected playoff contender. The three over teams had their share of concerns, but none were supposed to be bad. Right now, it looks like all three of them might be bad. So relative to the rest of the division, the Steelers aren't too far behind.

I know what the 1-4 record looks like. I know the Steelers are starting a quarterback that began the year on the practice squad.

I also know that there are also some positives to take away from the first five weeks.

I know that three of the Steelers' four losses have come by a combined total of nine points.

I know that the Steelers defense is greatly improved. Last year, that unit couldn't force a turnover if moving the team to North Korea was the only alternative. Now, no other defense in the league has forced more, and only the great Patriots have forced as many.

I remember last season, when it looked impossible for the Steelers to miss the playoffs, and they found a way to do that. Maybe the reverse can be true in 2019.

The Steelers have thrown themselves in a ditch. There's no sugarcoating that. If they are to make the postseason, they'll likely have to finish no worse than 9-7. To do that, they must go 8-3 the rest of the way, and that'd be a tall task with Ben Roethlisberger behind center, let alone Hodges or Mason Rudolph, the former of which must beat a future Hall of Famer in Phillip Rivers next Sunday to keep the season alive.

Winning the AFC North for the fourth time in six years doesn't look likely. Because of how bad the rest of the division and, for that matter, the rest of the AFC is, it's possible.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part V

Let's get it.


Brad
College
Purdue (+27.5) over Penn State
I think Pennsylvania State will win, but I doubt its by 28

Georgia (-24.5) over Tennessee
This one could get ugly, albeit being played at Neyland Stadium. The Vols nightmare gets worse.

UCF (-3.5) over Cincinnati (LOL)


NFL 
Buccaneers (+3.5) over New Orleans
Look out for the Bucs, who just put up 55 on the Rams. I think Teddy Bridgewater's magic runs out. TB 26, NO 25.

Chargers (-6) over Broncos
The Broncos are de facto tanking

Browns (+3.5) over 49ers
Give me Baker and the points in a primetime game.

Jeff 
College 
Oklahoma (-32) over Kansas
Jalen Hurts

Iowa (+3.5) over Michigan 
Michigan is overatted

Auburn (-3) over Florida 
This will be a tough one, but I see Auburn remaining undefeated until it plays Alabama.

NFL 
Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers 
Expecting a good game but without Davante Adams, the Packers will struggle offensivley

Cardinals (+3.5) over Cincy 
The Bengals couldn't stop a Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense, and I don't see them stopping Kyler Murray.

Bears (-5) over Raiders
The Raiders offense will be stiffed by the Bears defense.

Joe 
College 
Penn State (-27.5) over Purdue 
No Elijah Sindelar, no Rondale Moore, no good for Purdue. Take Penn State by a lot.

Wisconsin (-34.5) over Kent State
Wisconsin is a playoff contender. Kent State is not.

Texas (-10.5) over WVU 
Texas will be motivated by last year, and I think that combined with a clear difference in talent will lead to a win. Horns up.


NFL 
Titans (-2.5) over Bills
Buffalo has been fantastic, but they'll need to come down eventually. Tennessee at home is a safe bet.

Eagles (-14) over Jets 
Without Sam Darnold, this is some EZ Money.

Ravens (-3.5) over Steelers 
I hope I'm wrong, but Pittsburgh can't cover the tight end and struggles with running QB's. The Ravens have three of the former, and one of the latter.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Five takeways from Monday's win

By Donny Chedrick 

Photo creds to Las-Vegas review journal

Ahhhh, that’s refreshing. A Steelers win. Sure, they played the Cincinnati Bengals, the weakest team in the AFC North and one of the weaker teams in the entire AFC. Still, credit is due for Mike Tomlin, Randy Ficthner and Keith Butler. A week after being criticized for a losing performance in San Francisco and facing a lot of pressure – they answered. A cautious game plan on offense worked. An aggressive look on defense also worked – very well. The Steelers are 1-3 and have another huge AFC North matchup on the horizon. Before that, here are five key points from last week’s win.  

1.     “Rush the Quarterback”

 

Photo creds to Pack Insider

The Steelers welcomed some of their former legends back to Pittsburgh Monday night. Among them was former head coach Bill Cowher. To a rousing ovation during halftime at Heinz Field, the Cowher mantra was in full force against the Bengals. Cowher used to push his defense to “rush the quarterback” and is an important part of why “Blitzburgh” became a nickname in the 1990’s. 

The current Steelers had Bengals QB Andy Dalton running for his life. Granted, they took advantage of a bad offensive line, but that’s what they are supposed to do. Pittsburgh collected eight sacks. Cam Heyward led the way with 2.5,  TJ Watt had 1.5 with several guys collected one sack apiece, including rookie Devin Bush, who may have had his best game as a Steeler. The guy next to him did alright, too.

2.     Bush & Barron

 

Devin Bush finally showed something Monday. (Photo creds to Oklahoman)

In the first three games of the season, Bush and free agent acquisition, Mark Barron have received a fair amount of criticism. Barron, a former first round-pick out of Alabama garnered some well-deserved flack. Bush still needs some time to develop and fans shouldn’t expect Ryan Shazier-like play instantly. Bush has already played more snaps as a rookie than Shazier did his entire first year.

The 10^th overall pick who the Steelers traded up for had an incredibly solid game Monday night, especially against the run. Bush gathered nine total tackles, seven solo, with one sack and three tackles for loss. Barron also had himself a solid night as well. He still got beat in the pass game a few times but snagged an interception in the second half. Barron led the team in total tackles with 11 (eight solo) with one tackle-for-loss and the INT.

3.     Conservative, but effective

 

Photo creds to Forbes

Monday was a must-win for the Steelers. An 0-4 start would have spelled doom on the season. They needed a game plan to win, and they got it on both sides of the ball. It can continue to develop as the season goes on and as Rudolph gets more comfortable, but for Monday, it was the right plan. Rudolph didn’t have to do too much. In his second start, he didn’t throw it much down the field, with his long being a 43-yard touchdown to rookie Diontae Johnson. The second-year man out of Oklahoma State ended up with a conservative, yet efficient night. 24-28 passing, 229 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was a clean game and it was exactly what the Steelers needed.

4.     25/25/25, 3/3/3 Club

Jaylen Samuels did something special against Cincy. He became just the fourth player in the last decade to have 25+ rushing yards, 25+ receiving yards and 25+ passing yards in a game – joining Cam Newton, who did it in 2011, along with Christian McCaffrey and Julian Edelman, who both accomplished the feat in 2018. Samuels also became the first player since Terrelle Pryor in 2016 to have at least three rushing attempts, three receptions and three passing attempts,  running ten times for 26 yards, catching eight passes for 57 yards and going 3-3 through the air for 31 yards. A week after not getting a single touch offense, Samuels was the most versatile player on the field.

5.     Hope

At 1-3 the Steelers still aren’t favorites to win the AFC North or even make the playoffs, for that matter. Ben Roethlisberger is out for the season and the north is competitive. The Browns (2-2) and Ravens (2-2) haven’t lit the world on fire, and that leaves a gleam of hope for the Steelers. Rudolph will make his third career start Sunday afternoon against the Ravens. A win builds on that hope, but there would have been no hope at all if the Monday’s game went the other way.