Tie in Cleveland could cost the Steelers

By Joe Smeltzer

 

Sunday in Denver wasn't the first time a James Conner fumble helped cost the Steelers a win (Photo creds to SB Nation)

There's no debate that Sunday's loss in Denver was the Steelers' worst of the season.

It wasn't a typical "Tomlin trap game" that we've grown used to seeing over the past five years. Usually, Pittsburgh loses to an inferior opponent because it came out of the gates flat and doesn’t get it together until it’s too late. That wasn't the case Sunday.

The Steelers were ready to go, significantly outplayed the Broncos, but found a way to lose because of stupid mistakes. What's most aggravating is that now, it will be difficult for them to get a first-round bye without running the table.

Assuming the Steelers don't get a top two seed in the AFC—they've only accomplished that once since 2010—many people will point to the Mile High Meltdown as the reason why, and that will certainly have merit. In the likely event that the Steelers have to play on wild card weekend for the fourth time in five years, however, a game that Pittsburgh didn’t lose could be looked at as a major reason why.

Week one's 21-21 tie at Cleveland was similar to Sunday's loss in some ways. The Steelers dominated their season opener statistically and had a two-touchdown lead midway through the fourth quarter. Then, everything went to hell.

In what would become a preview for Denver, the game turned on a James Conner fumble, and Cleveland scored two touchdowns to send it to overtime, where both teams were too inept to score. So instead of coasting to a win, the Steelers started the season at 0-0-1.

Had the team did what they were supposed to do by Lake Erie, Sunday's loss would serve merely as a nuisance. The Steelers would be 8-3, not 7-3-1, with wins over LA and New England in the coming weeks—and both of those games being at home—putting them in a good position to get a first-round bye.

Because the Steelers tied, however, they probably have to win their last five games to get a bye, which would require beating the best team in football in the Superdome. I don't like the chances of that happening.

In the end, every setback carries the same weight. In week two against Kansas City, The Steelers scored 37 points without turning the ball over and still managed to lose. Three games later, Pittsburgh got shutout in the second half against the Ravens, leading to a prime-time loss at Heinz Field.   So while every Steelers loss this season has been frustrating and at least somewhat avoidable, the 1 in 7-3-1 will fly under the radar because it happened so long ago.

Although we may not have realized the significance of it then, that tie will probably end up making the Steelers path to the Super Bowl much more difficult than it should be.

Which is fitting, because nothing can ever come easy with this team.

Steelers Opponent Breakdown: Running backs, edge rushers key for Denver to pull an upset

By: Donny Chedrick

To no surprise, Von Miller has been Denver's most dominant player this season (Photo creds to ESPN.com)

Today’s game against the Broncos has the potential to look like last week’s last-second victory in Jacksonville.

Denver isn’t that different from the Jags stylistically. The Broncos have a solid defense with a good pass rush, a versatile running game with multiple talented backs and a quarterback in Case Keenum that’s experienced, but has proven not to be a huge threat.

The Steelers may have to play with their third right tackle of the season in the form of rookie third-round pick, Chukwuma “Chuks” Okorafor due to injuries to Marcus Gilbert and Matt Feiler. Okorafor will have his hands full on the edge with Denver’s great pass rush tandem. The Broncos may have one of the best pair of pass rushers in the league with Von Miller and rookie Bradley Chubb. That grouping will bring headaches to Okorafor and left tackle Al Villanueva as they try to keep Ben Roethlisberger off the ground.

Miller may not reach his career-high of 18 sacks, but he is on pace for 16.5, which is a great season for anyone. The less established Chubb has a chance to make history.. The first round pick out of North Carolina State has nine sacks and is on pace to reach 14.5 – a rookie record set by Jevon Kearse back in 1999. The Broncos blitz can bring a whole bag of issues for the Steelers on Sunday.

Something the Steelers had some trouble with, mainly in the first half, against Jacksonville was the Jaguars’ diverse running game. The trio of Leonard Fournette, TJ Yeldon and Carlos Hyde may be more dangerous than what Denver has to offer, but it is similar. The Broncos have three guys that can run the football with some success with the group of rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman to go with Devontae Booker. The pair of rookies both have five touchdowns this year, but Lindsay has been slated as the main back as he has collected 670 yards on 121 carries. Freeman has run the ball 78 times for 332 yards.

The third threat is Booker, who can do as much damage receiving as he can rushing. The former Utah Ute has 25 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown running the ball this year along with 162 yards on 23 receptions. Last week, Pittsburgh allowed more than 100 yards in the first half to Jacksonville but was able to shut it down in the second half. This time, the Steelers look to completely wipe out the opponent’s run game.

This past off-season,  Keenum signed a 2-year, $36 million contract with the Denver Broncos after quarterbacking the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC Championship game. To this point, it is pretty hard to say that he’s earned his pay. Kenneum is 229-362 (63.3%), with 2,605 yards, 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a QBR of 83.4, while his team is 4-6 and in third place of the AFC West.

Denver’s season is basically on the line Sunday. A win keeps the Broncos alive in the wild card hunt, but a loss virtually ends the season, so Keenum will have to rise up against a Steelers defense that allowed just over 100 yards to Blake Bortles last week. If I’m a betting man, I wouldn’t bet on Keenum being the guy to beat the Steelers.

Good teams win, great teams cover part IX

Time for another week of picking against the spread. Before we get into it, here are the standings as of this Thursday. 

Rutz: 27-27-1

Joe: 24-30-1

Jeff: 22-27-1

Ryan: 18-34-1

Brad: 17-37

Rutz

College

The 2012 win over UT was a special night for Vanderbilt. Will history repeat itself Saturday? (Photo creds to Vanderbilt Athletics)

Texas -14.5 over Kansas
The Longhorns are too good and too deep to not roll over Jayhawks, and they'll be motivated for possible 10-win season.

Syracuse +7.5 over Boston College
Should be a close one either way, but I'm puzzled at the disrespect for the Orange. If Syracuse loses, it won't be by more than a touchdown.

Michigan -4.5 over Ohio State
Famous last words betting on Harbaugh, but the Wolverines are just plain better.

Vanderbilt -3.5 over Tennessee
Go Dores! (Note, Rutz graduated from Vanderbilt in 2010.)

NFL

Photo creds to The Spokesman-Review

LA Chargers -12.5 over Arizona
Don't be scared of the spread, because the Cardinals are truly awful.

Chicago -3 over Detroit (Correct)

Miami +8 over Indianapolis
With Ryan Tannehill back, the Dolphins can make this a tight game.

Minnesota -3.5 over Green Bay

The Packers are going in the wrong direction, and Minnesota will be hungry after last week's loss that essentially killed their division title hopes. 

Ryan
College

Photo creds to Crain's Detroit Business

WV +3.5 against OK (Correct)

Michigan -4.5 over Ohio State

Harbaugh and the Wolverines finally get it done against Meyer and the Buckeyes, who are reeling on defense and predictable on offense. 

Maryland +13 against Penn State
Maryland can score the ball. Penn State is still overrated (see last week's Rutgers game).

Notre Dame -11 over USC
The Trojans have been very weak (losing to UCLA) and Notre Dame, to my chagrin, has continued to roll.  Looks like it will be Bama/Clemson who finally put ND in their place.

NFL

Ryan sees Baker going off on the Bungles (Photo creds to FOX Sports)

Bears -3 over Lions (Correct)

Browns +3 against Bengals

The best team in football gets revenge on Hue Jackson.  Cincy is reeling, per usual at this time of year.  Shake and Bake Mayfield throws his first 4 touchdown game and the Browns win by double digits.

Raiders +10.5 against Ravens
I just have a feeling this one will be close.

Jags -3 over Bills
Jacksonville almost put the pieces together last week.  It can handle the Bills, even on the road.

Jeff

College

Tua will pad his Heisman resume and Alabama legacy with a win in the Iron Bowl (Photo creds to 12UP)

Michigan(-4) vs Ohio State

Ohio State's defense will struggle mightily.

South Carolina (+26.5) vs Clemson-

Because this is a rivalry game, the Gamecocks will make it closer than it should be.

Alabama (-24.5) vs AuburnBama will come back angry after struggling vs The Citadel.

UCF (-14) vs USF (Correct)

NFL

Hue Jackson Stinks (Photo creds to Waiting for Next Year)

Bears (-3) vs Lions (Correct)

Browns(+3) vs Bengals

Screw Hue Jackson

Steelers (-3) vs BroncosDenver's offense won’t be able to keep up with the Steelers.

Patriots (-9.5) vs Jets

Coming after a bye week and a loss, the Pats won’t let up.

Joe 

Trace will go out a winner (Photo creds to Black Shoe Diaries)

College

Georgia (-17) over Georgia Tech

The Bulldogs still control their destiny as far as making it to the College Football Playoff goes, and I don't see any reason why they won't cover in this rivalry game at home. The running back duo of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield will be too much for the Yellow Jackets to handle. 

Pitt (+6) over Miami

The Panthers are rolling, and I don't see the train stopping until Clemson runs it off the rails next week. The loss of receiver Jeff Thomas is a big blow to a Hurricanes offense that's already not too good. I see Pitt's defense playing well enough to compliment it's deadly rushing attack, leading to another win in South Beach. 

Northwestern (-17) over Illinois 

Illinois is garbage, while Northwestern will have a chance, albeit not a good one, of playing in the Rose Bowl. Give me Clayton Thorson and the Wildcats

Penn State (-13) over Maryland

It's been a tough season for Trace McSorley, and I see him having a big day in his last game at Beaver Stadium. Maryland, on the other hand, will slow down after its offense went psycho on Ohio State last week. 

NFL

Photo creds to The Denver Post

Tampa Bay (-3) over San Fran

Tampa is at home, and it's offense has pulse. Take the Bucs, I guess. 

Tennessee (+6.5) over Houston

Houston has to come down to earth at some point, and an inconsistent team like the Titans is a good beat a week after a 38-10 loss.

Bills (+3) over Jags

Jacksonville won't recover from last week's choke. Buffalo is putrid, but for some reason, so is Jacksonville. Take the home team. 

Broncos (+3) over Steelers

Last week should have been the classic "Tomlin letdown" game, so it will have to happen this week instead. 

Brad

College

Brad could see the "Men of Troy" pulling off a massive upset (Photo creds to Warner Bros)

Michigan -4.5 over Ohio State
Michigan by 17.

Alabama -24 over Auburn
This won't be remotely pretty.  

USC +11 over Notre Dame 

I could see USC pulling this one out at home, so I'll take them +11. 

Boise State +3 over Boise State
Utah State is a good football team and so is Boise St. Utah State wins on a last second TD.

NFL
Eagles -6 over Giants
Saquon won't drop off, but other than that, it will be a big L for NYG.

Chargers -12.5 over Cardinals
The Chargers will destroy the Cardinals. 

Colts -7.5 over Miami
I really like the Colts now that Luck has gotten back into a groove.

Packers +3.5 over Vikings
Should be a close, good game, but I'll take Aaron Rodgers and points

Monday's classic had a lot of scoring, but so what?

By Joe Smeltzer

This week, something outrageous happened: Monday Night Football didn't stink.

Finally, MNF had a matchup that felt like a heavyweight fight. Two of football's best teams— with two of football’s best quarterbacks that are ready to take the torch when Brady, Rodgers and Brees retire—went at it on ESPN, not NBC, and delivered not only the best Monday Night game of the year but probably the best NFL game of 2018 period.

Yet, after the Rams sealed a 54-51 win over Kansas City, people still found something to complain about. Apparently, the contest was "too offensive-oriented," providing another example of the trend that is hurting football.

First off, people who think that Monday's game didn't have any defense weren't paying enough attention. Both teams lit up the scoreboard, but ultimately, LA forcing six turnovers—two of which courtesy of the best defensive player in football, Aaron Donald—is what won them the game. The Rams scored two defensive touchdowns, so at least one team showed up on D Monday Night.

As for the general issue of the NFL becoming similar to the Big 12 in that there's just too much scoring, I don't buy into that theory as much as others, such as former Pittsburgh Steeler Brett Keisel,  seem to. Now there are instances where NFL games play more like a Pro Bowl than a Super Bowl—such as, well, this year's Super Bowl—and that can get annoying. The way I see it, however, is every game is different.

Good football comes in all shapes and sizes. A 6-3 contest doesn't have to be an offensive stalemate, just like a 54-51 game doesn't have to be a glorified 7-on-7. There can be defensive struggles where the offenses move the ball, just like it’s possible to have a shootout where a big turnover ends up deciding the game. Those of us who watch football enough should know a good game when they see one, and Monday Night's wasn't a good game: it was a great one that probably won't be topped this season, and maybe not even next season.

Speaking of the Big 12, there’s an excellent matchup Friday night in Morgantown. Like Monday's game, this contest features two good teams with two elite quarterbacks. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray and WVU's Will Grier are both Heisman candidates and their teams are playing for a berth in the Big 12 title game and, in Oklahoma's case, possibly the College Football Playoff.

All of this is at stake, and the game will be played in front of one of the more hostile crowds in the country, so given what that this matchup has going for it, I won't be one of those that will have an aneurysm if the first quarter ends in a 14-14 tie.

Like every sport, football has its problems, and maybe the game is becoming too offensive oriented to an extent. How strongly fans feel about that is up to them, but it shouldn't cloud their view of a classic that just happened to feature a lot of scoring.