Pitt-Penn State: Breakdown/Prediction

The big day is upon us. It's a Saturday that Western Pennsylvania sports fans have been waiting for since 2000, and judging by the title, you already know I'm talking about Pitt-Penn State. Before I get into breaking down the two teams, I'd like to say that, while Saturday is a very exciting day for the state of Pennsylvania, the sad fact is that Pitt-Penn State is not, and probably will never again be the phenomenon that it was in its heyday (1977-82). I can't confirm anything, since I wasn't alive back in the late 70's/early 80's. But both programs have lost a lot of luster since then, and since Eastern football has fallen off quite a bit (Syracuse used to be a power as well), I can't imagine this rivalry will be nearly that hot ever again. The fact that ABC chose to televise the Michigan-Central Florida game over this once nationally acclaimed pastime speaks volumes about the state of both Pitt and Penn State on the national radar. Nonetheless, both fan bases have every right to be pumped up. Let's get into the key match-ups to watch for Saturday, and who I think has the edge in each one. Oh, one more thing. Since I had originally planned to write a historical piece in addition to my match-up preview but never had time to do so, I will make up for it by posting random pictures from the past and briefly explaining their meaning. Let's get into it.

Pitt's D-Line vs. Penn State's O-Line

Taken from the last meeting in 2000. Pitt won that game, 12-0, and yinzers love to bring that up as if it is still relevant. 

Penn State's offensive line stinks, and you can thank Bill O'Brien for not recruiting enough big boys. I still wake up in a cold sweat over last season's opening loss at Temple in which the line allowed ten sacks. Although I did not get to watch this years season opener against Kent State, from what I have heard, there is still work that needs to be done from the boys up front. Pitt has a solid defensive line anchored by Ejuan Price, so I think the Panthers have the edge in the trenches. Although, assuming Penn State's O-Line hasn't improved drastically, that isn't saying much.

Edge: Pitt

Penn State's D-Line vs. Pitt's O-Line

LaVar Arington doing his thing, blocking David Fleischhauer's 52 yard field goal to preserve a 20-17 Penn State Victory

The defensive line is one area where Penn State has lost some talent, with defensive tackles Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson as two notable departures. One key starter who is still here is defensive end Garret Sickles, who last week, recorded 1 of the seven sacks produced by the Penn State defense. Pitt's offensive line struggled against Villanova, and I don't think the O-Line will be a strong suit for the Panthers in 2016.

Edge: Penn State

Pitt's Secondary vs Penn State's Wide Receivers

Dan Marino was 2-2 against PSU in his 4 years at Pitt (see, 48-14)

This is the most intriguing match-up to watch, as I feel both teams are strong in these fields. Penn State has a talented group of receivers that hopefully new offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead will utilize much better than his predecessor John Donovan did. Chris Godwin is one of the better playmakers in the  Big 10, and Daesean Hamilton is not too far behind him. Pitt has an exciting and athletic group of defensive backs and safety's, led by Sophmore Jordan Whitehead, who was the 2015 ACC Rookie of the Year. Ryan Lewis and Avonte Maddox are both talented corners, and honestly, I don't know who has the edge in this match-up. So I'm calling it a push.

Push

Penn State's Secondary  vs. Pitt's Wide Receivers

Curt Warner was a national champion. Dan Marino was not

The Nittany Lions return 2 of 4 starters from last year's defensive backfield, and at least 3 of their starters this year can play. Free Safety Marcus Allen could be one of the better defensive backs in college football, while Grant Haley and Malik Golden are two more big time players coming out of the back. Pitt builds it's offense on running the ball, so don't expect new offensive coordinator Matt Canada to dial up many pass plays that will test Penn State. I don't think Pitt's receivers have the firepower to give Penn State too many problems in the defensive backfield

Edge: Penn State 

Now let's talk about the match-ups that won't be head-to-head, but will still have an impact on the outcome of this game

Linebackers

Just a good ole brawl. Gotta love those numbered helmets.

Linebacker U has two new products. Now Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell might not yet be LaVar Arrington and Brandon Short, but they are both fine football players and will be ones to watch on Saturday. Pitt has a tough linebacking corp led by Mike Caprara, but I'll give PSU a slight edge, partly based on reputation.

Edge: Penn State 

Running backs

James Conner vs. Saquon Barkley. That's where the big debate is regarding running backs. I feel that, while Barkley is better than Conner (especially considering Conner has played one full game in the past year), Pitt's running game is deeper than Penn State's is. Qadree Ollison did a great job filling in for Conner as a redshirt freshman last season, and he should play a role tomorrow as the #2. Darren Hill is another solid running option for the Panthers. While Barkley might be the best offensive player in the Big 10, Penn State's backups are unproven. Akeel Lynch transferred to Nevada. Mark Allen didn't impress too much last season, and although much has been made of Miles Sanders, the freshman from Woodland Hills High School will be used mainly as a return man on special teams. So, because of the depth, I'll give the edge to Pitt.

Edge: Pitt

Special Teams

#22 John Cappelletti took home the Heisman in 1973. Tony Dorsett would get his 3 years later. 

It feels like Chris Blewitt has been kicking for Pitt since 2005. All kidding aside, he gets the job done. Penn State's kicking status isn't so secure. Joey Julius looks to be the man in the kicking game, but the big man struggled a bit towards the end of 2015, and the verdict is still out on #99. DeAndre Thompkins and Miles Sanders look to lead the way in the return game for Penn State, while Quadree Henderson is an explosive kick returner for Pitt who took a kickoff to the house in the season opener against Villanova. It's too early to tell exactly how things will play out with special teams, so I'll call this one push.

Push

Quarterbacks

Neither Nate Peterman or Trace McSorley have proven to be anything too extraordinary quite yet, but I'll give Pitt's Peterman the edge because of experience. Peterman is a senior who took over the QB job in Week 2 last year, while McSorley is a sophomore who made his first start last Saturday. Both are fairly even, but Peterman is more experienced and savvy.

Edge: Pitt

Final Prediction

I think this game could go either way. Because of that, I was tempted to pick Penn State due to my allegiance to the Blue and White. However, I decided that if I were a neutral fan, I would pick Pitt to win this game. So that's what I'm going to do here. I feel that Penn State has better athletes than Pitt, but this game gets decided in the trenches. Pitt's defensive line will overpower Penn State's offensive line, making life tough for Barkley and company, and that will be the main difference in this defensive battle. Nate Peterman will play a smart game at QB, making the big plays when he needs to, however often that may be, while Trace McSorley will get rattled and throw at least one key INT. It will be close, but Pitt is a 6 point favorite for a reason. They have the home field advantage, and I feel that the Panthers will be very motivated and overall, smarter than Penn State is. So, I'm sorry to say.

Pitt 23, Penn State 17

And so, the Panthers will make the one game that kids are willing to make the daunting drive from Oakland to the North Shore for worthwhile.