Follow Smeltzer on Sports on Twitter or add me on Google Plus.
Hello, everybody. It's been a long time since I wrote about college football not being played by Penn State, but I sure am glad to be back. Since the first college football playoff rankings came out on Tuesday, it is perfect timing for me to write about the teams in contention for a national title. Let's get into it.
The Top 4
#3 Ohio State
We begin at the top with the defending champs. It's hard to call a team that is 8-0 underwhelming, but that's what the Buckeyes have been this season. OSU was expected to run rough shot over all of their opponents up until this point, but that hasn't been the case, and instead the Bucks have had trouble with far inferior opponents such as Maryland, Indiana, and Northern Illinois. Part of this can be pinned on Urban Meyer. There is no debating that this man may be the best coach in the country, but his decision to start Cardale Jones over JT Barrett at quarterback for seven weeks was puzzling, and I think the Buckeye offense suffered as a result. Now they will be forced to turn to Jones again, as Barrett foolishly picked up an ODI this past Saturday and has been suspended for this week's game at Minnesota. The Buckeyes have four games left, with 2 being at home and the other two on the road. Ohio State's last two games will be interesting as they are at home against Michigan State and of course, away at Michigan.
If Barrett has learned his lesson, I think that he will be the spark that the Buckeyes need to find their mojo. If this happens, good luck everybody else.
#2 LSU
As usual, Les Miles has a very strong team. At the heart is Leonard Fournette, who leads the nation in rushing with 1,352 yards and is looking to become the first Heisman Trophy winner since Billy Cannon did it in 1959. Unfortunately for the Bayou Bengals, an elephant is standing in their way. LSU will travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, and I find it quite challenging to bet against Nick Saben in a big game, especially at home.
#1 Clemson
In my opinion, this is the most complete team in the country, and they deserve to be #1 in the first playoff poll. The Tigers have it all. On offense, Deshaun Watson has played at a level that is worthy of a Heisman invatation, while Wayne Gallman is a tank at running back. The Tigers also have a talented group of receivers led by Artavius Scott, who leads the team with 514 receiving yards. Aside from last week at NC State, the Tigers defensive unit has been rock solid with Ben Boulware being a force at inside linebacker, Shaq Lawson a beast at defensive tackle, and Mackenzie Alexander a shutdown corner. The Tigers have everything they need to win a championship. If they can defeat Florida State at home this Saturday, they have a crystal clear path to an undefeated season, as their final three games are at Syracuse, at home against Wake Forest and at South Carolina, none of which appear to be a threat. I see the Tigers playing North Carolina in the ACC title game, and I don't see them as a threat to Clemson's dreams either.
#4 Alabama
Surprise surprise. Ever since suffering a shocking home loss to Ole Miss in week 3, the Tide have been on a roll, and they find themselves in a familiar spot, chasing a national title. Derrick Henry has established himself as one of the best running backs in college football, while Jake Coker has done a fine job in his first season as starting quarterback. Bama's defense has been excellent as usual, and Nick Saben is poised to make a run at his 5th national title. Bama has a tough stretch to close out the year, as their showdown with LSU will be followed by a game in a tough environment at Mississippi State, a cream puff in Chattanooga, and at Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl. Since the LSU game will be at Bryant-Deny Stadium, I do not foresee Alabama losing that game, nor to I foresee a hiccup at Mississippi State or Auburn, and I also don't think Florida is good enough to stop Bama in the SEC title game. The Ole Miss debacle awoke the sleeping elephant, and this elephant will not be denied in it's quest to reach the playoffs.
The realistic possibilities
#5 Notre Dame
The Irish are back in a big way, and Brian Kelly deserves serious Coach of the Year consideration considering all that the Irish have overcome. After losing their starting QB in Malik Zaire and their starting running back in Taren Folston both within the first two weeks, not a lot of people expected the Irish to be in this situation. However, true freshman Devonte Kaiser has stepped up in a big way in Zaire's place, as him and standout wide receiver Will Fuller are leading a very effective Irish offense. The Irish have an away tilt with Pitt on Saturday, followed by home games against Wake Forest and Boston College. All 3 of these games are very winnable, and they will set up an interesting season finale for the Irish in which they will travel to Stanford, who themselves are looking to sneak into the top 4. I think that the Irish will have a slip up against the Cardinal due to playing in a tough environment in a game that can go either way, and finish 10-2, which will not be good enough to get them into the playoffs.
#6 Baylor
As has come to be expected, Art Briles has an offense that is a powdered keg. Even though the Bears have lost their quarterback in Seth Russell for the rest of the season with a fractured vertebra, true freshman Jarrett Stindham is more than capable, as evidenced by his 419 yards passing at Kansas State on Thursday night. Stindham will be helped out greatly by Corey Coleman, who is arguably the best receiver in the nation. Baylor's remaining schedule is not easy, as they will have to play on the road at Oklahoma State and at TCU, who are both undefeated as well. Baylor's offense is putting up numbers that usually are only seen in a video game, as they average close to 666 yards and 57 points per game. Baylor's defense, however, may not be championship worthy, as they rank just 37th in the country in points allowed. The Bears do not have an easy road ahead, as they have to play two road games at TCU and at Oklahoma State, both of whom are undefeated. Unfortunately for the Bears, I do not see them winning both of those games without a Heisman hopeful like Russell.
#7 Michigan State
Much like Ohio State, Sparty has gotten the job done this season without doing anything overly flashy. It must be said that they are incredibly lucky to be undefeated, as Michigan was a well-executed punt away from knocking off their rivals. That said, it's better to be lucky than good sometimes. Connor Cook has been solid behind center, as he has thrown 17 touchdown passes so far this season, and Aaron Burbridge has been his #1 receiving target with 830 yards. The Spartan defense has been solid as usual in their first year without Pat Narduzzi calling the shots, and the Spartans are overall a complete team. MSU will travel to Lincoln to take on Nebraska this Saturday, followed by a home game against Maryland. These two winnable games will set the stage for a showdown at the Horseshoe with the defending champs. If Sparty can somehow find a way to knock off Ohio State, their playoff chances are very good. Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening if JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliot have anything to say about it.
#8 TCU
The Top 4
#3 Ohio State
We begin at the top with the defending champs. It's hard to call a team that is 8-0 underwhelming, but that's what the Buckeyes have been this season. OSU was expected to run rough shot over all of their opponents up until this point, but that hasn't been the case, and instead the Bucks have had trouble with far inferior opponents such as Maryland, Indiana, and Northern Illinois. Part of this can be pinned on Urban Meyer. There is no debating that this man may be the best coach in the country, but his decision to start Cardale Jones over JT Barrett at quarterback for seven weeks was puzzling, and I think the Buckeye offense suffered as a result. Now they will be forced to turn to Jones again, as Barrett foolishly picked up an ODI this past Saturday and has been suspended for this week's game at Minnesota. The Buckeyes have four games left, with 2 being at home and the other two on the road. Ohio State's last two games will be interesting as they are at home against Michigan State and of course, away at Michigan.
If Barrett has learned his lesson, I think that he will be the spark that the Buckeyes need to find their mojo. If this happens, good luck everybody else.
#2 LSU
 |
| Lenord Fournette |
As usual, Les Miles has a very strong team. At the heart is Leonard Fournette, who leads the nation in rushing with 1,352 yards and is looking to become the first Heisman Trophy winner since Billy Cannon did it in 1959. Unfortunately for the Bayou Bengals, an elephant is standing in their way. LSU will travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, and I find it quite challenging to bet against Nick Saben in a big game, especially at home.
#1 Clemson
In my opinion, this is the most complete team in the country, and they deserve to be #1 in the first playoff poll. The Tigers have it all. On offense, Deshaun Watson has played at a level that is worthy of a Heisman invatation, while Wayne Gallman is a tank at running back. The Tigers also have a talented group of receivers led by Artavius Scott, who leads the team with 514 receiving yards. Aside from last week at NC State, the Tigers defensive unit has been rock solid with Ben Boulware being a force at inside linebacker, Shaq Lawson a beast at defensive tackle, and Mackenzie Alexander a shutdown corner. The Tigers have everything they need to win a championship. If they can defeat Florida State at home this Saturday, they have a crystal clear path to an undefeated season, as their final three games are at Syracuse, at home against Wake Forest and at South Carolina, none of which appear to be a threat. I see the Tigers playing North Carolina in the ACC title game, and I don't see them as a threat to Clemson's dreams either.
#4 Alabama
Surprise surprise. Ever since suffering a shocking home loss to Ole Miss in week 3, the Tide have been on a roll, and they find themselves in a familiar spot, chasing a national title. Derrick Henry has established himself as one of the best running backs in college football, while Jake Coker has done a fine job in his first season as starting quarterback. Bama's defense has been excellent as usual, and Nick Saben is poised to make a run at his 5th national title. Bama has a tough stretch to close out the year, as their showdown with LSU will be followed by a game in a tough environment at Mississippi State, a cream puff in Chattanooga, and at Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl. Since the LSU game will be at Bryant-Deny Stadium, I do not foresee Alabama losing that game, nor to I foresee a hiccup at Mississippi State or Auburn, and I also don't think Florida is good enough to stop Bama in the SEC title game. The Ole Miss debacle awoke the sleeping elephant, and this elephant will not be denied in it's quest to reach the playoffs.
The realistic possibilities
#5 Notre Dame
The Irish are back in a big way, and Brian Kelly deserves serious Coach of the Year consideration considering all that the Irish have overcome. After losing their starting QB in Malik Zaire and their starting running back in Taren Folston both within the first two weeks, not a lot of people expected the Irish to be in this situation. However, true freshman Devonte Kaiser has stepped up in a big way in Zaire's place, as him and standout wide receiver Will Fuller are leading a very effective Irish offense. The Irish have an away tilt with Pitt on Saturday, followed by home games against Wake Forest and Boston College. All 3 of these games are very winnable, and they will set up an interesting season finale for the Irish in which they will travel to Stanford, who themselves are looking to sneak into the top 4. I think that the Irish will have a slip up against the Cardinal due to playing in a tough environment in a game that can go either way, and finish 10-2, which will not be good enough to get them into the playoffs.
#6 Baylor
As has come to be expected, Art Briles has an offense that is a powdered keg. Even though the Bears have lost their quarterback in Seth Russell for the rest of the season with a fractured vertebra, true freshman Jarrett Stindham is more than capable, as evidenced by his 419 yards passing at Kansas State on Thursday night. Stindham will be helped out greatly by Corey Coleman, who is arguably the best receiver in the nation. Baylor's remaining schedule is not easy, as they will have to play on the road at Oklahoma State and at TCU, who are both undefeated as well. Baylor's offense is putting up numbers that usually are only seen in a video game, as they average close to 666 yards and 57 points per game. Baylor's defense, however, may not be championship worthy, as they rank just 37th in the country in points allowed. The Bears do not have an easy road ahead, as they have to play two road games at TCU and at Oklahoma State, both of whom are undefeated. Unfortunately for the Bears, I do not see them winning both of those games without a Heisman hopeful like Russell.
Much like Ohio State, Sparty has gotten the job done this season without doing anything overly flashy. It must be said that they are incredibly lucky to be undefeated, as Michigan was a well-executed punt away from knocking off their rivals. That said, it's better to be lucky than good sometimes. Connor Cook has been solid behind center, as he has thrown 17 touchdown passes so far this season, and Aaron Burbridge has been his #1 receiving target with 830 yards. The Spartan defense has been solid as usual in their first year without Pat Narduzzi calling the shots, and the Spartans are overall a complete team. MSU will travel to Lincoln to take on Nebraska this Saturday, followed by a home game against Maryland. These two winnable games will set the stage for a showdown at the Horseshoe with the defending champs. If Sparty can somehow find a way to knock off Ohio State, their playoff chances are very good. Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening if JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliot have anything to say about it.
#8 TCU
This is an interesting one. The Horned Frogs have an offense that is on par with that of Baylor, and that is the reason that they are undefeated. The Horned Frogs may be doomed, however, as they play in the Big 12 conference. By law, that means that they don't play defense.
The trio of Trevone Boykin(quarterback/possible Heisman winner) Aaron Green (running back) and Josh Doctson (wide receiver/likely Biletnikoff Award winner) is in my mind, undoubtedly the best offensive trio in the country. That said, the Horned Frogs defense has been horrendous, and they have been living on the edge throughout this season as a result. TCU has a gantlet to close out the year, as three of their final four opponents have a combined total of one loss, with two of those three games being on the road. I will bet money that TCU will lose at least one of those games, and I would not be surprised if they lost two of them.
The "outside chances"
#9 Iowa
The "outside chances"
#9 Iowa
In my eyes, this is the most underrated team in the country, and being underatted that is a label that head coach Kirk Ferentz has embraced over the last decade. The Hawkeyes are currently undefeated but lack the attention that, in most other years, they would most defiantly be receiving. Unfourtanly, the Hawkeyes get lost in the shuffle of all of the other unbeaten teams in the land, and unlike most of those teams, Iowa was not ranked at the start of the season. It doesn't seem fair, but preseason rankings will be a huge factor in determining Iowa's playoff chances. Jake Canzeri spearheads Iowa's offensive attack with 698 yards rushing along when 9 touchdowns. Iowa's defense is what is driving this team to perfection, and they can compete with any unit in the country. Iowa's last four games are all against cream puffs, so I fully expect them to finish this regular season without a blemish, but losing to Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game.
#10 Florida
It's hard to believe that a 7-1 SEC team would be anywhere outside the top 5, but that's the predicament that Florida is in right now. The Gators have been a surprise this year under first-year coach Jim McElwain. Even after QB Will Grier was handed a season-long suspension last month as a result of using performance enhancers, the Gators have not skipped a beat, and their close loss at LSU is the only blemish on their record. Trevon Harris has done a fine job of filling in for Grier, and the Gators defense has been fantastic. Sadly for Florida, their situation is similar to that of Iowa's: unranked in the preseason top 25, relatively easy schedule and a lot of good teams ahead of them in the rankings, and losing to a better team in their conference title game.
#11 Stanford
One word is currently haunting Stanford: Northwestern. Unlike Florida and Iowa, the Cardinal started the season in the top 25 at #21. However, Stanford suffered a shocking week one defeat at the hands of Northwestern. Had Stanford won that game, they would be 8-0 and right in the heart of the playoff discussion. But they didn't, and are instead in the "outside chances" group. A lot will be riding on Stanford's last regular season game against Notre Dame at home, but even if they can take down the leprechauns, I still don't think they deserve to be in the playoff, and the mediocrity of the Pac 12 won't do them any favors as far as the committee goes. So, at the end of the season, Stanford fans will be cursing Northwestern and wondering what could have been.
#12 Utah
Just like their Pac 12 counterparts, one bad loss will haunt the Utes when it's all said and done. Utah is a fine team, with Devonte Booker leading the charge as one of the better running backs in the nation and an extremely punishing defense. However, that slip up against Cody Kessler and USC will prove to be very costly for the Utes. Utah was ranked #3 heading into that game, and would be right in the thick of things had they left LA with a win. But they didn't, and no matter what happens the rest of the way, Utah will not be in the college football playoff.
So, after breaking everything down, my prediction is that the four playoff teams will be: Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, and LSU. Notre Dame will have a hiccup against Stanford while Baylor and TCU both will falter down the stretch. LSU will narrowly beat out Michigan State to sneak in the playoffs as the #4 team due to having a more challengeing strength of schedule in a decision that will spark much controversy, as has become a college football staple.
These are my thoughts. Leave yours in the comment section below.
No comments:
Post a Comment