Good teams win, great teams cover Part VI

Big day for Jalen Hurts and the Sooners (Photo creds to foxnews.com)

We're well into October. This is when things get fun. Let's get into it.

Jeff is on a sabbatical, so Joe and Brad will run the show this week. More for me and you. 

Brad

College

Notre Dame (-11) over USC

In a spite game for Notre Dame, the Irish take over in the second half.

Florida (+13.5) over LSU

The Tigers will win, but it will be a one possession nail biter.

Alabama (-17) over Texas A&M

Either A&M will pull a shocking upset, or the Tide will roll by 30+. I'm betting on Bama.

NFL 

Seahawks (-1.5) over Browns 

Baker isn't clutch

Dolphins (+3.5) over Redskins 

I legitimately have more faith in the Dolphins than the Redskins 

Chargers (-6.5) over Steelers 

I typically bet against the Steelers. It worked last year, but I stopped when the Steelers started to suck. Now, I'm going to bet against them this week. Hopefully it works. 

Joe

College

Texas (+10.5) over Oklahoma 

This game will be decided by a touchdown or fewer. These two teams are too good for the Sooners to just run away with it. 

Wisconsin (-10) over Michigan State

The Badgers are the second best team in the Big 10. Jonathan Taylor will do his thing against an underwhelming Michigan State team.

Iowa (+3.5) over Penn State
I never trust Penn State in Iowa city. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the Hawkeye defense making life hard for Sean Clifford.

NFL
Cowboys (-7) over Jets
Three of the Jets' four losses have come by two touchdowns or more. Dallas is a good team, so I don't see this one being decided by a touchdown or fewer.

Packers (-4.0) over Lions
Rodgers at Lambeau. Don't think Detroit has an answer.

Cardinals (+2.5) over Falcons
Atlanta hasn't won a road game all year. This is a good time for Kyler Murray to have a big game and add to the misery of a franchise that blew the Super Bowl just two years ago. 

Steelers' hope lies in the North's ineptitude

Photo creds to Behind the Steel Curtain 

At 6:00 Sunday evening, I thought the Steelers were done.

1-4. 1.5 games out of first place. There was no reason to believe that Pittsburgh can get off the canvas. The Steelers needed to beat the hated dirty birds at home and didn't do it.
By midnight Tuesday morning,  the Cleveland Browns changed my mind when they got embarrassed in primetime in the City by the Bay. The Browns reminded me that the AFC North is terrible.

Now, I'm not suggesting that the Steelers will win the division. This team has a lot of work to do to make that happen and will have to do so with somebody not named Ben Roethlisberger as its field general. What I'm saying is that the AFC North is so bad, it'd be unfair not to think the Steelers at least have a chance. Not a great chance, but maybe a chance similar to the shot I have of getting married before the age of 30. Not great, but not entirely unreasonable.

Sure, the Ravens got a win in Heinz Field Sunday, but did Baltimore impress anybody? The birdies needed overtime to fend off Devlin Hodges. At 3-2, the Ravens record is bland, and so is their resume. Their two other wins have been against a Dolphins team that's the worst in the NFL and a
Cardinals squad in transition, the latter of which was a six-point squeaker in Baltimore.

The Browns were thought by some to be Super Bowl contenders. Instead, they are 2-3 with two of their losses coming by an average of 29 points. In one of Cleveland's wins, however, it put up 40 points against the Ravens in Baltimore. So yeah, the first place Ravens are quite vulnerable, and they're currently the kings of the North.

Coming into the season, every team in the division sans Cincinitti was a projected playoff contender. The three over teams had their share of concerns, but none were supposed to be bad. Right now, it looks like all three of them might be bad. So relative to the rest of the division, the Steelers aren't too far behind.

I know what the 1-4 record looks like. I know the Steelers are starting a quarterback that began the year on the practice squad.

I also know that there are also some positives to take away from the first five weeks.

I know that three of the Steelers' four losses have come by a combined total of nine points.

I know that the Steelers defense is greatly improved. Last year, that unit couldn't force a turnover if moving the team to North Korea was the only alternative. Now, no other defense in the league has forced more, and only the great Patriots have forced as many.

I remember last season, when it looked impossible for the Steelers to miss the playoffs, and they found a way to do that. Maybe the reverse can be true in 2019.

The Steelers have thrown themselves in a ditch. There's no sugarcoating that. If they are to make the postseason, they'll likely have to finish no worse than 9-7. To do that, they must go 8-3 the rest of the way, and that'd be a tall task with Ben Roethlisberger behind center, let alone Hodges or Mason Rudolph, the former of which must beat a future Hall of Famer in Phillip Rivers next Sunday to keep the season alive.

Winning the AFC North for the fourth time in six years doesn't look likely. Because of how bad the rest of the division and, for that matter, the rest of the AFC is, it's possible.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part V

Let's get it.


Brad
College
Purdue (+27.5) over Penn State
I think Pennsylvania State will win, but I doubt its by 28

Georgia (-24.5) over Tennessee
This one could get ugly, albeit being played at Neyland Stadium. The Vols nightmare gets worse.

UCF (-3.5) over Cincinnati (LOL)


NFL 
Buccaneers (+3.5) over New Orleans
Look out for the Bucs, who just put up 55 on the Rams. I think Teddy Bridgewater's magic runs out. TB 26, NO 25.

Chargers (-6) over Broncos
The Broncos are de facto tanking

Browns (+3.5) over 49ers
Give me Baker and the points in a primetime game.

Jeff 
College 
Oklahoma (-32) over Kansas
Jalen Hurts

Iowa (+3.5) over Michigan 
Michigan is overatted

Auburn (-3) over Florida 
This will be a tough one, but I see Auburn remaining undefeated until it plays Alabama.

NFL 
Cowboys (-3.5) over Packers 
Expecting a good game but without Davante Adams, the Packers will struggle offensivley

Cardinals (+3.5) over Cincy 
The Bengals couldn't stop a Mason Rudolph led Steelers offense, and I don't see them stopping Kyler Murray.

Bears (-5) over Raiders
The Raiders offense will be stiffed by the Bears defense.

Joe 
College 
Penn State (-27.5) over Purdue 
No Elijah Sindelar, no Rondale Moore, no good for Purdue. Take Penn State by a lot.

Wisconsin (-34.5) over Kent State
Wisconsin is a playoff contender. Kent State is not.

Texas (-10.5) over WVU 
Texas will be motivated by last year, and I think that combined with a clear difference in talent will lead to a win. Horns up.


NFL 
Titans (-2.5) over Bills
Buffalo has been fantastic, but they'll need to come down eventually. Tennessee at home is a safe bet.

Eagles (-14) over Jets 
Without Sam Darnold, this is some EZ Money.

Ravens (-3.5) over Steelers 
I hope I'm wrong, but Pittsburgh can't cover the tight end and struggles with running QB's. The Ravens have three of the former, and one of the latter.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Five takeways from Monday's win

By Donny Chedrick 

Photo creds to Las-Vegas review journal

Ahhhh, that’s refreshing. A Steelers win. Sure, they played the Cincinnati Bengals, the weakest team in the AFC North and one of the weaker teams in the entire AFC. Still, credit is due for Mike Tomlin, Randy Ficthner and Keith Butler. A week after being criticized for a losing performance in San Francisco and facing a lot of pressure – they answered. A cautious game plan on offense worked. An aggressive look on defense also worked – very well. The Steelers are 1-3 and have another huge AFC North matchup on the horizon. Before that, here are five key points from last week’s win.  

1.     “Rush the Quarterback”

 

Photo creds to Pack Insider

The Steelers welcomed some of their former legends back to Pittsburgh Monday night. Among them was former head coach Bill Cowher. To a rousing ovation during halftime at Heinz Field, the Cowher mantra was in full force against the Bengals. Cowher used to push his defense to “rush the quarterback” and is an important part of why “Blitzburgh” became a nickname in the 1990’s. 

The current Steelers had Bengals QB Andy Dalton running for his life. Granted, they took advantage of a bad offensive line, but that’s what they are supposed to do. Pittsburgh collected eight sacks. Cam Heyward led the way with 2.5,  TJ Watt had 1.5 with several guys collected one sack apiece, including rookie Devin Bush, who may have had his best game as a Steeler. The guy next to him did alright, too.

2.     Bush & Barron

 

Devin Bush finally showed something Monday. (Photo creds to Oklahoman)

In the first three games of the season, Bush and free agent acquisition, Mark Barron have received a fair amount of criticism. Barron, a former first round-pick out of Alabama garnered some well-deserved flack. Bush still needs some time to develop and fans shouldn’t expect Ryan Shazier-like play instantly. Bush has already played more snaps as a rookie than Shazier did his entire first year.

The 10^th overall pick who the Steelers traded up for had an incredibly solid game Monday night, especially against the run. Bush gathered nine total tackles, seven solo, with one sack and three tackles for loss. Barron also had himself a solid night as well. He still got beat in the pass game a few times but snagged an interception in the second half. Barron led the team in total tackles with 11 (eight solo) with one tackle-for-loss and the INT.

3.     Conservative, but effective

 

Photo creds to Forbes

Monday was a must-win for the Steelers. An 0-4 start would have spelled doom on the season. They needed a game plan to win, and they got it on both sides of the ball. It can continue to develop as the season goes on and as Rudolph gets more comfortable, but for Monday, it was the right plan. Rudolph didn’t have to do too much. In his second start, he didn’t throw it much down the field, with his long being a 43-yard touchdown to rookie Diontae Johnson. The second-year man out of Oklahoma State ended up with a conservative, yet efficient night. 24-28 passing, 229 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was a clean game and it was exactly what the Steelers needed.

4.     25/25/25, 3/3/3 Club

Jaylen Samuels did something special against Cincy. He became just the fourth player in the last decade to have 25+ rushing yards, 25+ receiving yards and 25+ passing yards in a game – joining Cam Newton, who did it in 2011, along with Christian McCaffrey and Julian Edelman, who both accomplished the feat in 2018. Samuels also became the first player since Terrelle Pryor in 2016 to have at least three rushing attempts, three receptions and three passing attempts,  running ten times for 26 yards, catching eight passes for 57 yards and going 3-3 through the air for 31 yards. A week after not getting a single touch offense, Samuels was the most versatile player on the field.

5.     Hope

At 1-3 the Steelers still aren’t favorites to win the AFC North or even make the playoffs, for that matter. Ben Roethlisberger is out for the season and the north is competitive. The Browns (2-2) and Ravens (2-2) haven’t lit the world on fire, and that leaves a gleam of hope for the Steelers. Rudolph will make his third career start Sunday afternoon against the Ravens. A win builds on that hope, but there would have been no hope at all if the Monday’s game went the other way.

In a must-win Monday night game, the Steelers have the perfect opponent

Photo creds to Bengalswire.usatoday.com

The Steelers are going to beat the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.

It's not because they are the better team, which they are.

It's not because Pittsburgh never loses at home on Monday night, which it doesn't, and it's not because Cincinnati's poor run defense will allow James Conner to have a field day, which it could.

It's because whenever the Steelers need to beat Cincinnati, and yes, we are already at "must-win" status in week four, they get it done.

There have been times when the Bengals have gotten the best of Pittsburgh on a big stage. In 2005, Cincy got a win in Heinz Field that many thought would mark the death of the Steelers' playoff hopes. It didn't. 

Instead, it was Pittsburgh who knocked the Bengals out for real one month later at Paul Brown Stadium on its way to a fifth Super Bowl championship.

Almost a decade after Super Bowl XL, the Bengals again won a battle at Heinz Field, and in the process ended Le'Veon Bell's season. The keyword here is "battle." The war took place at Paul Brown Stadium on a Saturday in January. Once again, the Steelers won the war.

Even when the Steelers don't make the playoffs, they find a way the screw with Cincy. In week 17 of the 2006 season, the Bengals needed a win to qualify for the postseason, and that win would have to come against the already eliminated, mediocre Steelers. With nothing to play for, Pittsburgh ended the Bengals season for the second year in a row on a touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes in overtime.

Tonight, both teams come in at 0-3, and both need a win. It's rare for a game in September to mean so much to the Steelers, but that's what happens when you lose three straight out of the gate. If the Steelers lose tonight, they are done. Finished. Down for the count. Toast.

If they win, however, they'll find themselves one game out of first place in the AFC North at 1-3. That sounds ridiculous, but it gets even weirder.

If the Steelers beat the Bengals tonight and beat the Ravens at Heinz Field next Sunday, and if the Browns lose at San Francisco next week, the Steelers, at 2-3, will be tied for first in the division. It's crazy, but none of it is even a little unrealistic. Every team in this division is flawed, and when that's the case, things can get whacky.

Getting their first win of the season on Monday Night Football could be the first step to getting the Steelers back into the AFC playoff picture. Or, it can also mean nothing and serve merely as a small triumph amid the team's first losing season since the year Operation Iraqi Freedom took place.

Whatever happens over the next 13 games, we can count on the Steelers rising to the occasion and beating the Bungles. They always do.

Good teams win, great teams cover Part IV

Before we get started, here are the standings through three

Jeff: 15-3
Brad: 12-6
Joe: 7-11

Now time for part IV


Jeff
College
Ohio State (-17) over Nebraska 
Clemson (-27) over North Carolina 
Miami (OH) (+2.5) over Buffalo

NFL
Texans (-4) over Panthers
Seahawks (-5) over Cardinals 
Steelers (-4) over Bengals

Brad
College
Nebraska (+17) vs. Ohio State
The Huskers are a solid 3-1 Big 10 team getting Ohio State at home in a night game. Memories of Purdue last year, Iowa two years ago and Penn State three years ago are skeletons in the closet for Ohio State.

Alabama (-37.5) over Ole Miss
Last year Ole Miss scored off the get go. Bama went on to score 62 consecutive points and that was at Ole Miss.

Texas Tech (+27.5) against Oklahoma
OU always has some close calls thanks to being in the Big 12. This will be their first. Oklahoma 41, Texas Tech 30.

NFL
Ravens (-6.5) over Browns 
Baker Mayfield is overrated

Patriots (-7) over Bills
The Bills lucked into a 3-0 record. The Patriots have destroyed every team they've played, albeit with two of those wins coming against the Jets and Dolphins.

Giants (-3) over Redskins 
Daniel F'n Dimes baby. When Daniel Jones was picked, I told friends he wasn't going to be a bad player. Jones has shut up his critics including the aforementioned, overrated Mayfield.



Joe 
College 
UVA (+10.5) over Virginia 
I'll believe in Notre Dame beating a ranked opponent by more than one touchdown when I see it.

UcConn (+42.5) over UCF
42 points is a lot of freaking points. I'll always take the dog to cover in that situation.

Ohio State (-17.5) over Nebraska 
The Buckeyes are head and shoulders above anybody in the Big 10. Nebraska shouldn't have been ranked to start the season and isn't as good as its 3-1 record shows. Give me the Bucks.


NFL
Chargers (-14.5) over Dolphins
Miami might be the worst team of all time

Bears (-1.5) over Vikings
That Chicago defense is the real deal. I think the Bears will be just fine playing Kirk Cousins at home.

Broncos (-3) over Jags
We all love Gardner Minshew, but he's never started a road game. Denver is a touch environment, and I think the Broncos are due to get a win. Playing an already sub-par Jacksonville squad with a rookie quarterback is a nice setup.

For better or worse, Big 10 opener will tell a lot about Penn State

For Penn State, tonight’s game at Maryland is massive for a multitude of reasons.

Every game is important in college football more so than in other sports, and a loss will kill any hope Penn State has at appearing in the college football playoff. It’s also the Big 10 opener, the start of a brutal conference slate that features matchups with four ranked teams, three of which will be played on the road. 

The most important thing about tonight for Penn State, however, is that it marks the first opportunity for the Nittany Lions to show what they are made of. The first three games haven’t proved much. Idaho and Buffalo were supposed to be blowout wins, and they were. The Pitt game was much closer than people anticipated, but as we saw last Saturday against Central Florida, the Panthers might be better than advertised. 

Tonight, Penn State leaves the confines of Beaver Stadium and plays its first road game against a pretty solid opponent. 

Maryland hasn’t had a winning season since 2014, and is coming off a disappointing loss at Temple. But these Terps are good, and its largely because of an explosive offense led by running back Anthony McFarland. Penn State’s defense is supposed to be the heartbeat of this football team and thus far, it has been, but it will certainly be facing its stiffest test.

Maryland has talent on the other side of the ball as well, led by former Clemson Tiger Shaq Smith at linebacker. The Penn State offense has struggled in six of its last eight quarters of football, and quarterback Sean Clifford needs to be better tonight than he was against Pitt for the Nittany Lions to win. And he’ll have to start a football game on the road for the first time since high school.

Although Byrd Stadium doesn’t compare with Beaver, Ohio or Michigan Stadium, any conference road game is a challenge.

Clifford is one of a number of Penn State’s starters, particularly on offense, that haven’t started a game on the road, let alone under the lights. Maryland’s fanbase will be ready to go. They understand what a win the 12th ranked team in the country would mean for the program, so much so that the school cancelled its classes Friday to celebrate the occasion of Friday Night football. James Franklin’s history with Maryland also makes for an intriguing storyline, as it does every year. 

If this game were at Beaver Stadium, I’d have no problem picking the Nittany Lions to win. Because it is on the road, however, Penn State could go down, and it will be in a world of hurt if that happens. 

A loss at Maryland wouldn’t exactly instill confidence for a team with a schedule that features Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa, and could open the floodgates for a year where not even bowl eligibility is a formality. 

The Nittany Lions are supposed to win tonight. They are the team that's ranked. They have the more established program. They have more talented athletes on the field. But they’ve also proven zilch through three games. A win over Maryland on the road in primetime would prove something. It wouldn’t make Penn State the Big 10 favorites, but it would set a positive tone for the rest of the 2019 season.

On the contrary, a loss could kill the campaign before it really starts.