Good teams win, great teams cover: Championship Sunday

The kid might be ready (Photo creds to bloomberg). 

It's championship Sunday. Before we hit it hard like we always do, here are the standings from last week.

Brad: 3-1
Jeff: 3-1
Rutz: 2-2
Ryan: 2-2
Joe: 1-3

Rutz 
New Orleans -3.5  over LA Rams.
That half a point bugs me, but I have a funny feeling the Saints are going to roll in this game. Jared Goff isn't quite ready for this moment and Drew Brees rolls.

Saints 31, Rams 20

KC -3 over New England
I know, I know, it's Tom Brady. Well screw Brady. Patrick Mahomes at home puts an end to this little tea party. Chiefs sock the Pats.

Chiefs 37, Patriots 24

Jeff 
Saints -3.5 over Rams
I think the Rams offense struggles against the Saints d and the New Orleans scores a last-second go-ahead TD to win.

Saints 34 Rams 30

Patriots +3 over Chiefs
The Pats already played KC once and the second time is always easier to stop prolific offenses. Brady in a close one.

Patriots 41 Chiefs 35

Brad
Rams +3.5 over Saints-  I don’t know why but I’ve had a gut feeling all year that the Saints won’t make the Super Bowl.  I always trust my gut.
Rams 20, Saints 17

Pats +3 over Kansas City
I said before the postseason that the path to the Super Bowl still runs through New England, even when the Pats don't have home field.

Pats 34, Chiefs 31

Ryan
Rams +3.5 over Saints 
The Saints didn't look great against Philly, and the Rams have a high powered offense.

Rams 28, Saints 21

KC -3 over Pats.  
Andy Reid has a pretty good track record offensively against New England  I think the Chiefs can outscore the Pats and win in a game in the high 30s.

Chiefs 38, Pats 33

Joe 
Saints -3.5 over Rams
I don't know. On the one hand, LA is in better form than New Orleans is currently, and the addition of CJ Anderson has made its offense even more dynamic. When it comes down to it, however, do I see Jared Goff beating Drew Brees in his backyard for a trip to the Super Bowl? I don't, so I'll cautiously pick the Saints in a shootout.

NO 38, LA 30

KC -3 over Pats
I'm as big of a "jiofijfrrfiiofri never bet against Tom Brady" guy as there is, but not today. It's Patrick Mahomes' time, and more importantly, it's Andy Reid's time. Big Red is a winner, and whoever hasn't realized that by now will today. The Chiefs are the younger, better team, and while New England will give them everything they can handle, I have KC bringing Lamar Hunt's trophy back home.

Breaking Down the Penguins West Coast Road Trip

By Drew Hreha 

Photo creds to Party City

When the Penguins left Pittsburgh for Anaheim last week, they were rolling.
They had won 11 of their last 13 games, shooting the team back into contention in the Metropolitan division.

A daunting five-game road trip, however, awaited Pittsburgh. Heading out west, the Penguins would be making stops in Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, Arizona and Las Vegas. The trip is crucial to Pittsburgh maintaining momentum before a string of eight straight Eastern Conference
matchups.

After continuing the winning in Anaheim, Pittsburgh dropped both matchups with the Kings and the Sharks. They will look to pick up victories against Arizona on the 18th and Vegas on the 19th. In the meantime, here is a summary of the first three games of the trip.

Pittsburgh def. Anaheim 7-4
The Penguins began the road trip dramatically, overcoming a three-goal deficit to defeat the Ducks 7-4. The Penguins took advantage of a struggling Anaheim, delivering the Ducks their tenth straight loss. The Ducks used a strong first period to take an early 3-0 lead.

Anaheim scored off poor Pittsburgh defense and a Kris Letang turnover to dominate the opening frame. The Penguins converted on two power play opportunities and a Ducks turnover to tie the game in the second. Phil Kessel would break a 4-4 tie in the third, and the Penguins would ride a Jake Guentzel hat trick to a victory.

Los Angeles def. Pittsburgh 5-2
The next night in LA, Guentzel stayed hot. He scored both of Pittsburgh’s
goals, both on power plays. Ultimately, however, the difference in goaltending doomed the Penguins. Jonathan Quick stopped 38 shots and played lights out.

Casey DeSmith didn't play as bad as the numbers would make you believe. DeSmith gave up four goals on 24 shots, with the addition of an empty-net goal for the Kings. However, goals were scored off a poor Kris Letang pass and lazy defensive play.

San Jose def. Pittsburgh 5-2

At the beginning of the week, the Penguins ran into a buzz saw in San Jose. The Sharks were riding a six-game win streak heading into Tuesday, and their streaky play continued. San Jose doubled Pittsburgh’s takeaways (20-10) which put extra pressure on Matt Murray throughout the night. Murray made many spectacular saves but couldn't hold off Tomas Hertl, who scored a hat trick. San Jose found most of its success screening Murray’s
vision, opening up shot lanes.

Moving Forward
Currently, the Penguins sit in fourth in the Metropolitan division with 56 points. Just three points behind the division-leading Capitals and Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh is still very much in the thick of things. With a ton of Eastern Conference games ahead, picking up steam is essential.

The Pens will travel to Arizona first on Friday to face the Coyotes. Arizona is seventh in the Pacific division with 45 points. Pittsburgh will round out the road trip at the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, who sit in third in the Pacific with 60 points.

Good teams win, great teams cover: Divisional Round

If Phillip Rivers is ever going to take down TB12, this is the time (Photo creds to Clutch Points)

Wildcard Weekend is done. Time for the divisional round. Let's go.

(P.S., there were some formatting errors that plagued last weeks article, so I, Joseph Arthur Smeltzer, apologize. The errors have been fixed, and we assure that this won't happen again.)

Rutz
Colts +6 over Chiefs. 
Andrew Luck and the Colts offense can certainly pull off this upset, and KC has a morbid playoff history. I'll take the points, please.

Chargers +4.5 over Patriots
My one wrong pick last week was underestimating the Chargers. Phillip Rivers is playing out of his mind and there's nothing inspiring about New England, who seems worn out. LA wins straight up.

Rams -7 over Cowboys
With a week of rest, LA withstands a tough test from Dallas and wins by 10.

Eagles +9 over Saints
Philly's defense is peaking at the right time, and the Saints offense has slowed down recently. I'll take the New Orleans to win anyway because it's plainly superior, but by single digits.

Brad
Colts +6 over Chiefs
Without Kareem Hunt, Indy will at least contend with KC, maybe even win outright.

Colts 28, Chiefs 24

Patriots -4.5 over Chargers
I still believe the AFC runs through New England.  I see the Pats finding a way to make the Super Bowl again.

Pats 34, Chargers 27

Rams -7 over Cowboys
I don’t think Dallas can keep up with the Rams.  It will be close, but LA will pull it out.

Rams 36, Cowboys 28


Eagles +9 over Saints
Two words. Nick. Foles.

Eagles 24, Saints 23

Jeff
Colts +5.5 over Chiefs
I think the Chiefs win this one but only by the skin of their teeth.

Chiefs 30 Colts 28

Rams -7 over Cowboys
I don’t think the Cowboys offense will be able to keep up with the Rams.

Rams 31, Cowboys 17

Pats -4 over Chargers
Tom Brady in the playoffs? I wouldn’t bet against him.

Patriots 24, Chargers 17

Eagles +8 over Saints
I think New Orleans struggles in this one and Nick Foles works his magic once again.

Eagles- 20 Saints 18

Joe
Colts +6 over Chiefs
I hope I'm wrong on this one.

Andy Reid is a brilliant football mind, and the only way he'll get the credit he deserves is if he wins a Super Bowl. If Kansas City doesn't win the AFC this year, I'm not sure Reid will ever get that chance.

The Colts are the hottest team in the conference right now, and the combination of Indy's form and the Chiefs' playoff failures at Arrowhead Stadium makes it hard for me not to take the points.

Colts 17, Chiefs 14

Chargers +4.5 over Patriots
New England has one of the weakest run defenses in the NFL, and Melvin Gordon is one of the league's best running backs. This is a bad combination.

While the Patriots are still dominant at home, I don't believe this team rules the AFC anymore. New England is still good, but no longer great, and it's time for somebody else to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

Chargers 31, Pats 21


Cowboys +7 over Rams
Dallas beat Seattle last week because of its front seven.

Led by linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylen Smith, the Cowboys limited one of football's best rushing attacks to 73 yards. Like the Seahawks, LA's offense is run-heavy, and since Jared Goff isn't as good as Rusell Wilson, the Rams are in trouble if they can't get Todd Gurley going.

I'll be bold and pick Dallas to win straight up, but even if the Cowboys fall short, I'm comfortable picking them to cover the spread because of their linebacker play as well as the fact that they'll probably have as many fans in LA Memorial Coliseum as the home team does.

Cowboys 20, Rams 19

Eagles +9 over Saints
New Orleans my pick to win the Super Bowl largely because I can't see anybody beating them in the Superdome. With that said, Philly is too motivated to lay down for New Orleans like it did the first time these teams met.

Nick Foles will play well enough to keep this game to single digits. The Saints should win, but it won't be by 41 points this time.

Saints 24, Eagles 20

Ryan
Chiefs -5 over Colts 
Indy could have played with the Chiefs in fairer weather, but in the cold and snow Andrew Luck, hailing from Stanford and his comfortable dome in Indy can’t move the ball even against KC’s defense.

Cowboys +7 over Rams 
LA wins but only by three or four.  The Cowboys offense has a big day behind Zeke Elliott, but the defense isn't stout enough to pull out a road win

Chargers +4 over Pats. 
This is against my better judgment.  I thought Rivers looked horrible trying to throw the ball in the cold in Baltimore and he’ll have the same problem in NE.  But last week I dreamt that Tom Brady was flying a FedEx plane and had to have an emergency landing to get home safe, so I have to bet accordingly. Jesus doesn’t lie to me in my dreams.

Eagles +8 against Saints.  
Nick Foles is magic.

Good teams win, great teams cover: Wildcard Weekend

We know Nick Foles will be full of energy, but can the Eagles move on to the divisional round? (Photo creds to Sporting News).

Last week, the boys picks some college football playoff games. Now, the NFL playoffs are approaching. Let's get into it.

Ryan
Colts +1 at Houston
The Texans will continue their postseason misery as Indy's offense manages to score enough points to squeak out a close one
Colts 21, Texans 17.

Seattle +2 against Dallas
Dallas's hot streak comes as Seattle runs through a slightly dinged up Cowboys defense

Seattle 24 Cowboys 14.

LAC +3 over Baltimore
The Ravens beat LA just two weeks ago, but the running-QB never lasts in the NFL.

Having seen Lamar Jackson already, the Chargers snuff out the run and force Baltimore to try to win through the air, which isn't a successful formula for them.  Give credit to the Browns who utilized some late-line-shifting to throw off the Baltimore D last week in the second half and provided a helpful blueprint for the Chargers' success.

Chargers 24, Ravens 20

Bears -6.5 over Eagles
Philly limped into the playoffs while Chicago has been the surprise of the season.  The Bears D is too much for an overmatched Eagles offensive line and injury-riddled QBs.

Bears 28 Eagles 13.

Rutz
Indianapolis +1 over Houston
At one of the relatively easier road venues, Andrew Luck has a huge game and the Colts win a surprisingly easy one.

Colts 31, Texans 17

Philadelphia +6.5 over Chicago
Nick Foles in the playoffs and an improving Eagles defense make me think this will be a tough, gritty, close game.

That said, Chicago has been dominant at home and will get a big takeaway late to seal this one.

Bears 23, Eagles 20

Baltimore -3 over San Diego
The Ravens defense is playing exceptionally well, and the Chargers aren't going to like playing in nasty Baltimore in January. Lamar Jackson makes enough plays to win.

Ravens 27, Chargers 17

Dallas -2 over Seattle
The recently fading Cowboys D scares me a little, but the Seahawks are never that tough on the road in the playoffs. Their only road playoff win under Pete Carroll came in a fluke against the Vikings in 2015. Still, it should be a fun game. Dallas wins with a last-second field goal.

Cowboys 22, Seahawks 19

Eagles +6.5 over Bears
I expect the Chicago to win but think Nick Foles will keep it close


Bears 17 Eagles 14

Jeff

Texans -1.5 over Colts

Houston is the better team and has more talent on both sides of the ball.

Texans 27, Colts 21

Seahawks +2 over Cowboys

I can’t imagine the Cowboys doing well in the postseason, and I have faith in Russell Wilson 

Seahawks 24 Cowboys 17

Ravens -2.5 over Chargers

I don’t think anyone will be able to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens defense is too good 

Ravens 31 Chargers 20

Eagles +6.5 over Bears

I expect the Chicago to win but think Nick Foles will keep it close 

Bears 17 Eagles 14

Brad

Colts +1.5 over Texans 

I think Indy will win this game straight up.   I see Andrew Luck knocking off DeShaun Watson in this battle of QBs.

Cowboys -2 over Seahawks

 I don't expect this to be a game.  This isn't the same Seahawk and Cowboy teams that would respectively, make runs every year and lose in the first round. The Cowboys are better. 

Chargers +2.5 over Ravens

Baltimore is a much easier team to play the second time around. LA fell to the Ravens a few weeks ago, so I seriously doubt we get the same result.

Eagles +6.5 over Bears 

Two words. Nick. Foles.

Joe 

Indy +1 over Houston 

The Colts are the hottest team in the AFC playing in, as Rutz alluded to earlier, a not-so-intimidating venue. Andrew Luck is better than DeShaun Watson, and if he can outperform Watson, I like Indy's chances.

Colts 30, Texans 20

Seattle +2 over Dallas

I don't generally like picking the Seahawks away from home, but I can't trust Dak Prescott to beat Russell Wilson in a playoff game. Seattle will suck it up, drown out the noise and silence Jerry World.

Seahawks 34, Cowboys 27

Ravens -2.5 over Chargers

These teams met two weeks ago in LA, and Baltimore controlled the game from bell to bell. The Ravens haven't slowed down since then, so I don't expect a different result.

I am anticipating the most physical game we see this postseason largely because of the conditions, which will also favor Baltimore. The legend of Lamar Jackson grows, and the Ravens advance. 

Ravens 10, Chargers 6

Eagles +6.5 over Bears

Initially, I thought for sure I'd pick Chicago because of how good the Bears are at home. My thoughts have changed, however, for two reasons. 

The first is Nick Foles. The guy has been playing lights out since taking over (again) for Carson Wentz, and although I'm not as high on Foles are some are, I expect him to be ready to perform. The second is the Eagles offensive line. 

Two weeks ago, Philly's front limited one of the best defensive players in football, LA's Aaron Donald, not allowing him to get to Foles. Now, they face the NFL's Defensive player of the Year in Kahlil Mack. If Philly's tackles can limit Mack the way its interior linemen limited Donald, I like Foles to have a big day and for Philly to pull an upset.

Eagles 20, Bears 13

The eight worst things about Pittsburgh sports in 2018

By Joe Smeltzer
With 2018 in the books, it's time to reflect on the best, and worst of the Pittsburgh Sports Scene. Let's get the worst out of the way.

8. The last days of Stallings
Jan-March

Kevin Stallings' Pitt career summed up in a picture (TheBlackSheepOnline)

Depending on how the Jeff Capel era turns out, 2018 could be remembered as a pretty good year for Pitt basketball. Everything that happened before Capel's hiring, however, stunk.

The Panthers went winless in the ACC, fired Kevin Stallings after just two seasons, and created some drama regarding Stallings' buyout.

Although it looks to be on the upswing now, the basketball program has been, for the most part, a mess since Jamie Dixon left, and the height of that mess was one of the low points of Pittsburgh sports in 2018.

7. 34-6
Jul. 2/6 

The fact that Tanner Anderson appeared in a 17-1 loss to the Dodgers is telling of how that game went (photo creds to TribLive)

2018 wasn't a bad year for the Pirates. It wasn't great by any stretch, but nonetheless, it was a far cry from the catastrophe many were proclaiming after the team traded Andrew McCutchen (more on that later) and Gerrit Cole.

The low point of this season from an on-field standpoint took place during a five-game losing streak in early July that started in LA and ended at PNC Park.

It wasn't the streak itself, but rather two games, in particular, that earned a spot on this list. The first was the loss that opened the losing streak, as the Pirates dropped a 17-1 stinker Jul. 2 at Dodger Stadium. The second loss was a 17-5 nail biter to Philly at PNC Park four days later.

The Bucs responded from this slump and went 42-32 the rest of the way, but man, giving up 17 runs (twice) is brutal.

6. Two out of three ain't bad

Photo creds to The Denver Post

All good things must come to an end, and this past May, the Penguins run as Stanley Cup champions, and their dominance over the Washington Capitals, were both laid to rest May 7.

While there's no shame in falling short of a third straight Stanley Cup, watching the team that Pittsburgh had owned for so long celebrate on the PPG Paints Arena ice didn't sit well, and thus, the Penguins playoff exit was one of 2018.


5. 51-6

I'm a Penn State fan, so this was pretty sweet. For many of my friends, however, it must have sucked.

4. Gregory Polanco's injury

Photo creds to MLB.Com

This might seem like a curious entry on this list, but because of the ridiculous way it happened and how it could affect the Pirates in 2019, Polanco's injury deserves to rank among the worst of 2018.

For the most part, this was the best season of Polanco's career, but it all went away Sept. 17. It was a careless slide that resulted in a torn labrum and a 7-9 month absence. Because of poor fundamentals, the Pirates will be without their regular right fielder for at least half of 2019.

3. The Lev Bell saga

The Steelers expected a disgruntled Le'Veon Bell to report to work. He never did (photo creds to Sporting News)

While it ended up far down the list of the Steelers concerns and the team played pretty well through it-- it was 6-2-1 before the possibility of Bell showing up in 2018 was squashed-- all the drama surrounding Le'Veon Bell was annoying, and not something the team needed. The whole "will he, won't he and if he will, when will he?" saga was exhausting, and not something any Steelers fan will miss.

2. The end of an era

Trading Andrew McCutchen signified the end of the era that resurrected baseball in Pittsburgh (photo creds to NBC Sports).

From a baseball standpoint, the Andrew McCutchen trade worked out decently well for the Pirates. In exchange for Cutch, Pittsburgh picked its future setup man in Kyle Crick and subsequently traded for left fielder Corey Dickerson, who outperformed McCutchen in 2018. Still, seeing the Pirates move on from the face of their franchise and the catalyst of their losing streak was painful, and wasn't an optimal start to the year.

1. The last month of the Steelers season
It's fresh in our minds. It sucked, and everybody in Pittsburgh knows it. The Steelers losing four of their last six games and missing the playoffs was unequivocally  the worst thing that happened in 2018, and thus, this list, like the season, is done.

Good teams win, great teams cover: It's (college) playoff time

It's time for some picks against the spread. Let's get into it

Jeff 
College 

Bama(-14) over Oklahoma 
Alabama's  defense will lose this high scoring affair

Note Dame(+12.5) over Clemson
Clemson is overrated

Georgia(-12.5) over Texas

Washington (+6.5) over Ohio State

LSU(-7.5) over UCF

NFL

Ravens -5.5 over Browns

Bengals +14.5 over Steelers

Colts -3.5 over Titans

Chargers -7 over Denver

Ryan 
College 

Clemson -13 over ND
ND gets exposed as the wannabes that they are.

OK +14 against Alabama
I think this one will be closer than people think, and closer than the title game.  OK can score at will and will put up points.  Bama struggles somewhat offensively with a less than 100 percent Tua. Tide by 3.

Ohio State -6.5 over Washington
Urban goes out in style.

Texas +13 against UGA
Georgia feels gipped by the playoff committee and doesn’t show up to play.

LSU -7.5 over UCF

We can finally stop talking about UCF when they lose to a middle of the pack SEC team by 21. 

NFL
Browns +5.5 over Ravens. 
The best team in football wins handily on the road to oust the ratbirds from playoff contention.  Baker throws only 1 TD but effectively manages the offense to 24 points and a 24-13 win on the road as the Browns D forces Lama Jackson to throw, which he doesn't do well.

Bengals +14.5 against Steelers 
I think Pittsburgh wins by 10 in front of an empty stadium as all fans are at the bar wearing Cleveland jerseys.

Titans +3.5 over Colts.  
Andrew Luck struggles in outdoor December weather and the Titans win a low scoring affair on the back of Derrick Henry.

Denver +7 against LAC

Phillip Rivers struggles again against a solid defensive line.  The chargers stumble into the playoffs where they will be eliminated in the WC game by Pittsburgh.

Brad 
College
Clemson -13 over Notre Dame
Clemson has been overrated in years past, but this is the best Tigers team we’ve seen by far.

Oklahoma +14 over Alabama
It’s hard from a betting standpoint to not take fourteen points and Kyler Murray.

Ohio State -6.5 over Washington
Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes will play as if they have something to prove.

Kentucky +6.5 over Penn State
Penn State sucks.

NFL
Ravens -5.5 over Browns 
Cleveland hasn't beat a winning team since Gregg Williams took over as coach.

Bengals +14.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers dominate but a last-second touchdown makes the game a little closer than it should be.

Titans +3.5 over Colts 
Tennessee wins the spread battle when the Colts and Titans tie.

Joe
College 
My playoff picks are up on this site. Check it out. As for the rest...

Penn State -6.5 over Kentucky 
Kentucky's a decent football team, nothing more nothing less. James Franklin somewhat salvages what's been a fairly quiet season in Happy Valley by picking up his tenth win.

Stanford -4.5 over Pitt
No Bryce Love, no problem. KJ Costello is a much better quarterback than Kenny Pickett, and that will be the difference in the Sun Bowl.

NFL 
Bengals +14.5 over Steelers
I can't trust this Steelers team to blow anybody out. They should win, but they won't cover.

Patriots -13.5 over Jets
Come on now.

Giants -6 over Cowboys
Dallas has nothing to play for, so the Cowboys will take it easy. The Giants, on the other hand, have a chance to finish 6-10, which isn't too bad considering how they started the season,

49ers + 10 over Rams
Without Todd Gurley, I see San Fran keeping it close on the road.

Rutz 
College 
Georgia -11 over Texas
I think the Bulldogs will be out for blood in this one, and Texas won't be able to keep the UGA offense contained. Georgia wins by at least two touchdowns.

Texas A&M -5 over NC State.
The SEC always gets it done in the upper-tier bowls. Jimbo Fisher will have them ready.

UCF +7.5 over LSU
The Tigers aren't that great and they could easily screw this one up. When in doubt, take the points.

Alabama -14 over Oklahoma
The Sooners don't have the defensive capability to stop the Tide. They'll get out ahead early and then run them into the ground.

ND +13 over Clemson
Clemson has hardly been tested all year. Notre Dame is easily it's best opponent, so the Tigers could be upset if they aren't careful.

NFL
LA Rams -10 over San Francisco
The Rams take care of business to nail down the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Cincinnati +14.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers should churn out a win in this one but two touchdowns is too steep for me.

Atlanta pick'em over TB
The Falcons finish a terrible season on an upswing with a decisive win over the Bucs.

Carolina +7 over Saints
They're facing a backup QB and New Orleans will be operating at less than optimal effort having clinched the top seed in the NFC.

College Football Playoff: Keys for each team to advance

By Joe Smeltzer 
It's playoff time. Here are three things that each of the four semifinalists can do to advance to the national championship game.

Oklahoma
1. Win the battle up front

Replacing Rodney Anderson, Kennedy Brooks has played a big part in the Sooners' record-breaking attack (Photo creds to The Norman Transcript).

Most of the hype surrounding Alabama centers around Tua Tagovailoa. Yet on the other side of the ball, the Tide have possibly college football's most dominant player in defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. By the same token, most conversations about Oklahoma focus on Kyler Murray, but the Sooners offense isn't just limited to the Heisman trophy winner, however. Oklahoma also has arguably the best rushing attack and best offensive line in the country to complement its quarterback.

Pardon the cliche, but "the trenches" could play a big part in who advances to the national championship game. It will be up to the Sooners' line-- particularly guards Ben Powers, Dru Samia and Creed Humphrey-- to open holes for running backs Kennedy Brooks and Tre Sermon and take some of the load off or Murray.


2.Pressure Tua

Photo creds to Sports Illustrated 

According to Pro Football Focus, Tua has a 147.2 passer rating under a clean pocket, which is .7 behind Murray. It's likely that one of those two will finish with the highest rating since PFF College began in 2014. It's no secret that Alabama has a much better defense than Oklahoma, so if the Sooners defense doesn't get pressure on Tua, that will be a problem regardless of how healthy Tagovailoa is.


3. Force a turnover or two

Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray leads the team with three INT's (Photo creds to 247sports.com).

The Sooners defense gave up 56 points the last time it faced an elite quarterback when West Virginia's Will Grier went off for 539 yards in the regular season finale the night after Thanksgiving. Despite Grier's performance, Oklahoma won its regular season finale 59-56. Ironically, it was two defensive touchdowns by the Sooners that made the difference, so as bad as it was, Oklahoma's defense ultimately won the game.

Oklahoma will be up against another offensive Saturday, and will likely give up a lot of points. It's also likely that the Sooners will score a decent amount, so don't expect anything resembling defensive struggle.

For the Sooners to have a chance, their defense doesn't have to be great, but they might need to make a play that swings the momentum of the evening.

2. Pound the rock

Najee Harris is an underrated part of Alabama's offense (photo creds to Saturday Down South)

With all the talk about Tua and Alabama's stellar receiving corps, people forget that the Tide can run the football as well.

Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs all are capable backs, and Hurts will contribute with his legs as well if he sees action. Since we don't know how much Tagovailoa's ankle has healed, the Tide might have to go to the ground more than usual, and it's important for their trio of tailbacks to be up to the task.


3. Contain Kyler Murray 

Photo creds to USA Today

Alabama won't stop Murray, but what they can do is limit him, and the best way to accomplish that is to take away big plays.

Like most Big 12 teams, Oklahoma loves the deep ball, and a lot of its scoring plays are of 60+ yards. If Alabama can force the Sooners into uncomfortable third-down situations, its chances of containing college footballs best offense from doing what it does best will be much improved.

Prediction
Of the two semifinal games, this should be the more entertaining one since both teams will score a lot of points. At the end of the day, Alabama is the better, more complete football team. Oklahoma's defense folded against an SEC team last year in this spot, and I expect it to do the same thing this year against a better SEC team.

Alabama 48, Oklahoma 31

Notre Dame 
1. The first 45 minutes

Photo creds to TribLive

Clemson hasn't had to play in a lot of close games this season, while the Irish had several of them.

Since a scare against Syracuse in late September, the Tigers haven't had many stressful moments in the fourth quarter, so it's worth questioning if their endurance would hold up late in a close game since they've been tested far less than Notre Dame.

If the Irish can come out of the gates strong and keep it close deep in the second half, that bodes well for them, as most of Clemson's games are over before well before the final 15 minutes.

2. Ian Book

It's the biggest game of Ian Books life. Let's see if the Irish QB can get it done (Photo creds to USA Today)

Clemson's defensive front is the best in college football with or without Dexter Lawrence. Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey have graduated from Notre Dame's offensive line, so I don't like its chances of getting much done on the ground. That leaves it up to quarterback Ian Book to have a big day. Be ready, son.

3. Special Teams

Justin Yoon could answer a lot of prayers today (Photo creds to One Foot Down)

Notre Dame's Justin Yoon is one of the best kickers in college football, having converted 16 of 20 field goals, several of which from beyond 40 yards. The Irish's only prayer of winning would be in a tight game. Like, a  really tight game. In those type of contests, as the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown us this season, it could come down to the kicker, and if that's the case, the Irish are in good hands.

Clemson 
1. Next man up

Clemson lost a hoss, but another hoss is taking his place (Photo creds to 247Sports.com). 

Because Lawrence failed his drug test, the Tigers are without one of the best defensive players in college football. Luckily, Clemson has plenty of depth at defensive tackle.

Albert Huggins is an NFL talent who will get his shot to breakout playing in Lawrence's absence. While Lawrence's presence is a big one to lose, there's no reason the Tigers defensive line can't carry on.

2. Don't get worn out
Tying into one of Notre Dame's keys, Clemson hasn't played a nail biter since September, and that was when it was down to its third-string quarterback. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, the Tigers must have the endurance to move on to the national championship game.

3. Come out of the gates strong
Clemson is the better team, as evidenced by the fact that the Tigers are two-touchdown favorites.

As the favorite, its important for Clemson to play well from the outset and not let Notre Dame hang around. If the Tigers are able to do that, this could get ugly.

Prediction
I think this game will be closer than some are expecting, but the favorite still comes out on top.

Clemson's defense will rally around Dexter Lawrence and play an inspired game, and Notre Dame fans will be very frustrated that the offense let them down. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence won't play his best game, but he and running back Travis Etienne will make enough plays to get the Tigers another date with Bama.

Clemson 23, Notre Dame 10.