Hello, all. As conference titles get decided, the college football playoff picture will become clear shortly. Eight teams still have a prayer of competing for a national title. Here is breakdown of what those teams have to do to get in, and what their chances of winning are if they make it.
#1 Clemson
What they have to do
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| Kelly Bryant has done an admirable job filling DeShaun Watson's shoes at QB (Photo creds to NCAA.Com) |
Should it bother anybody that the best team in America
A. Played on a Friday night this season
B. Lost to Syracuse on a Friday night?
It bugs me a little bit. Nonetheless, Clemson has done quite well for itself without DeShaun Watson and Mike Williams, earning the number one ranking despite that Syracuse loss. While Kelly Bryant isn't at Watson's level yet, the Tigers haven't experienced too great of a dropoff at QB, while Deon Cain and Hunter Renfroe still lead a deep receiving corps. As loaded as Clemson is offensively it's the defense that makes it elite. Celin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant all could be first-round draft picks this spring, and it's worth noting that all three are on the defensive line. The Tigers are on fire, and if they beat Miami, which they should, Dabo will be in prime position to win his second straight title.
What their chances are if they get in
It's hard to argue that Clemson isn't the most complete team in college football. The offense averages 35 points per game and the defense could have multiple first-round draft picks, and they are savvy having with a lot of players having played in two straight title games The only thing stopping the Tigers from repeating as national champions would be themselves.
#2 Auburn
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| Jumping off the Titanic... I mean the Baylor football team, has payed off for Auburn QB Jarett Stidham. (Photo creds to SEC Country) |
Remember last month when Auburn lost at LSU and Gus Malahan's future was in question? Ha. Since then, the Tigers have won five games by an average of over three touchdowns, with the most important one being last Saturday's Iron Bowl. Now, Auburn controls its destiny in getting to the playoff for a shot at its first national title since the days of some guy named Cam Newton.
If they get in, what are their chances?
Unfourtanlty for the Tigers, not only don't I think that they'll win a national championship, I don't think they'll get the chance to compete for one. The reason being that they are too banged up.
Auburn has injuries both sides of the ball, most notably running back Karryon Johnson and linebacker Tre Williams. Johnson, in particular, would be devasting. If he's not at his best, Auburn won't be at its best, and I feel that if Johnson isn't himself, Georiga will take advantage of that today.
#4 Wisconsin
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| Photo creds to Madison.com |
Over the past two decades, there haven't been a lot of programs more consistent than Bucky. This season, the Badgers once again are a fundamentally sound football team, and this time, the program has a shot at its first national title since the Eisenhower administration.
If the Badgers beat Ohio State in the Big 10 title game, they're in the playoff. No questions asked.
If they get in, what are their chances?
As much as I love Wisconsin, for whatever reason, I'm not sold on its offense. Sure, the Badgers score a lot of points and have possibly the best pure runner in the country in freshman Jonathan Taylor. But the fact that these guys scored just 17 against Purdue and 24 against Illinois is concerning, mainly because of the passing game. Alex Hornibrook is improved from 2016, but could any of you picture him as a national title winning QB? I, for one, can't. I think that the Badgers will lose to a more talented Ohio State team today, and dreams of a perfect season will perish.
#3 Oklahoma
What they have to do
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| Photo creds to bleacher report |
Baker Mayfield may be immature, and he could be Johnny Manziel 2.0 at the next level. But one can't deny how dominant he's been as Oklahoma's quarterback. The Sooners are a typical Big 12 team that scores a lot of points and allows a lot as well. What separates the Sooners from the rest of the conference is that they take a hell of a lot more than they receive. Oh, and they have the probable Heisman Trophy winner.
If OU beats TCU Saturday, they're in the playoff. As with Wisconsin, it's that simple.
If they get in, what are their chances
I see no reason what the Sooners shouldn't handle TCU well today. But after that, as with all Big 12 teams, I don't trust them in the playoff. If you've watched the Big 12 over the past decade, you'd figure that the reason I can't trust Oklahoma is its defense, and you'd be right.
OU isn't a horrible defensive team. That unit held Ohio State to 16 points earlier this season. They also allowed 41 to 1-11 Baylor. No Big 12 team has won a national title since Vince Young's Texas Longhorns in 2005, and there's a reason for that.
On the outside
#5 Alabama
The Tide are the only team on this list that doesn't control their destiny. Because of the Auburn loss, Alabama doesn't have a chance to win a conference title. So in all likelihood, Big AL have to rely on somebody in the top four to lose. Otherwise, this will be the first college football playoff without Nick Saban in it.
If they get in, what are their chances?
It's clear to anybody who's watched Alabama that this is not a typical Saban coached team. That aura of dominance isn't there, and a lot of that is due to injuries, particularly at linebacker, with Shaun Dion Hamilton and Mack Wilson going down. Like rival Auburn, I think that 'Bama is too beat up, and St. Nick won't add anything to his silverware.
#6 Georiga
What they have to do
It might not seem like the Bulldogs are where they want to be right now, but in reality, things are far from gloom for UGA. If Georiga upsets Auburn, not only will it be in the playoffs, but it will also avenge it's only loss of the season, making the Bulldogs practically undefeated, since the 'Dawgs will have won the more important matchup of the two. Georiga controls its destiny. Beat Auburn, and they are in. Woof.
If they get in, what are their chances?
Aside from Clemson, Georiga might have the best chance of winning a national title should it beat Auburn today and get into the playoff. They have one of the nation's best defenses, led by linebacker Roquan Smith, and they have several weapons offensively as well, with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel forming a deadly one-two punch at running back. I'm not predicting it, but is there any reason that Georiga can't win its first national title since the days of Herschel Walker? I don't think they will win it all, but they certainly can win it all.
#7 Miami
What they have to do
Last week, the 'Canes were flying high at number two. But because they lost to Pitt (lol), they are now on the outside looking in. They're still alive in the playoff race, but they absolutely have to beat top-ranked Clemson to do so. Given Miami's struggles offensively and how hot Clemson has been, I don't see that happening.
If they get in, what are their chances?
Miami lost to Pitt, and Malik Rosier is not a good quarterback. The future is bright in South Beach, but a national title will have to wait.
#8 Ohio State
What the have to do
While the Buckeyes chances of a third playoff appearance in four years aren't dead yet, they are on life support. If Ohio State waxes Wisconsin in Indy Saturday night, it still might not be enough. But if they are to get in somehow, I'd give them at least a realistic shot at winning a national title.
If they get in, what are their chances?
They won't get in. Bet.
So based on what I see happening, the top four will be, in no order; Clemson, Georiga, Alabama and Oklahoma. Clemson is the best of those four teams. Will it play out that way? We will see. All we can do as fans is get our popcorn ready and enjoy.
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