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Monday, January 9, 2017

2017 National Title Game Breakdown/Prediction

These two titans meet again. (Photo creds to Washington Post)
By: Joe Smeltzer
*Disclaimer* Yes I do plan on writing about the Steelers later this week. Be patient.
Hello, all. Well, the two best teams in college football are squaring off once again for the nation's top prize, and those are the Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers and Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. For Saban, it is a chance for a sixth national title (5th at Bama), which would further him into immortality. For Dabo, it is a shot at redemption, as well as a chance to bring the great state of South Carolina it's first national title in 35 years. Of course, there are a lot of intriguing match ups to watch, and now is my time to talk about them, starting up front.


Alabama's Defensive Line vs. Clemson's Offensive Line
Hopefully, defensive end Jonathan Allen does not have his career ruined by the Cleveland Browns

No debate here. Alabama's defensive line is elite, and it features maybe the most dominant defensive player in college football in Jonathan Allen, who will likely be a top-five pick in this year's NFL Draft. Tim Williams, Ruben Foster and Ryan Anderson are also extremely athletic, and will not make life easy for Clemson QB DeShaun Watson.

Edge: Alabama

Clemson's Defensive Line vs. Alabama's Offensive Line
Christian Wilkins is a big boi. (Photo creds to The Boston Globe)

Clemson's defense has been inconsistent all season. However, as Ohio State found out on New Year's Eve, when they are good, they can be excellent, and for me, the defensive line is where this Tigers unit does the most damage. Christian Wilkins, Carlos Watkins, and Dexter Lawrence are three forces on the defensive line, and the Tigers linebacking corps features the controversial but talented Ben Boulware. Although Alabama's offensive line has big Cam Robinson, who won the Outland Trophy as the nation's top offensive lineman in 2016, the rest of the line is questionable, as evidenced by a poor showing in their semifinal win over Washington. Clemson's defensive line is scary when they are on, and it will be interesting to see whether the Tide can hold them down.

Edge: Clemson 

Alabama's Secondary vs. Clemson's Receivers
Injured for most of last season, Mike Williams looks to end his college days on the highest of notes. (Photo creds to USA Today)

To me, this is the most intriguing matchup of the evening. Clemson's receiving corps are as good as any in the country, as Mike Williams (future first round pick), Hunter Renfrow, Deon Cain, Artavis Scott and tight end Jordan Leggett (look for him to break out) give DeShaun Watson plenty of weapons. Clemson's passing game will be tested tonight, however, as Marlon Humphrey, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Tony Brown and Ronnie Harrison are all in Bama's talented secondary. Both of these respective areas are strengths for Clemson and Alabama. However, Clemson's receivers, combined with the talent of their quarterback, give them the edge in this category.

Edge: Clemson

Clemson's Secondary vs. Alabama's Receivers
This match up is dull in my eyes. Yes, Clemson's secondary features one of the better corners in the country in Cordrea Tankersley, and Alabama has a few receiving options, particularly their tight end, O.J. Howard. However, Clemson's is not known for their pass defense (Pitt's Nathan Peterman threw five touchdowns against them) and Alabama is not known for passing the football. I don't care about this match up, so I'm going to call it a push.

Push

Quarterbacks
Watson claims to be the best player in college football. Time for him to put is money where his mouth is. (Photo creds to Bleacher Report)

I love Jalen Hurts. I think the Alabama freshman is a play-maker who has a bright future ahead of him. However, DeShaun Watson is elite. Yes, Watson's form is not as strong as it was when these two teams met at the end of last season. However, he is still one of the best players in the country when he is on. If the quarterback position is the deciding factor in this game, that is good news for the Clemson Tigers, as Hurts is too inexperienced to put the Tide on his back.

Edge: Clemson

Runningbacks
Nobody in Alabama's backfield has made fans forget about Derrick Henry. However, as we saw on New Year's Eve, Bo Scarbrough is no slouch, and considering how shaky Clemson's defense can be, that should be a concern for Tiger fans. For Clemson, Wayne Gallman is a punishing tailback himself, but I don't think anybody who watched Scarbrough against Washington would argue which player is in better form at the moment.

Edge: Alabama

Special Teams
Clemson is much better in the kicking department than they were one year ago, and I think that Greg Hugel will be up to the challenge if and when he is called upon.

Edge: Clemson

Final Prediction
To be honest, I had no idea who I was going to pick until I started writing my preview. On the one hand, Clemson is out for revenge, and it's very hard to imagine them falling short twice in almost the same situation. On the contrary, it's hard to imagine a Nick Saban coached team losing.. ever. Finally, after breaking down the rosters, I've decided that one of two things is going to happen;

1. If it comes down to the trenches, I like Bama's chances. The Tide's front seven is second to none, far more consistent than Clemson's, and the better they perform, the worse it will be for the Tiger's offense.
2. If it comes down to skill, I like Clemson's chances. It's hard to imagine a power five football team that has six receivers with over 400 yards on the season, but that's what the Tigers have. The combination of these receivers, and the talent of the man who will be throwing them the ball will be very hard for Alabama to handle.

I've been thinking of some possible concerns for Clemson, and I've found that, although I do not expect nearly as lopsided of an affair, that some of Ohio State's main strengths also apply to Alabama. Ohio State had a great defense, as does Alabama. Ohio State was known to force a lot of turnovers, sometimes for defensive touchdowns, as is Alabama. The main point of this comparison is that in the lead up to Clemson's thrashing of the Buckeyes, people felt that Watson's tendency to turn the ball over, along with Ohio State's tendency to create turnovers, would be bad news for Clemson. In spite of two more Watson interceptions (he now has thrown 17 on the season), 31-0 happened.

 I am not saying that Clemson will roll over Alabama the way they did Ohio State, but I am saying that DeShaun Watson is ready to be a college football immortal. He is talented. He is poised, and perhaps most important of all, he's seen Alabama's defense before and did quite well against it, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdown passes in last year's title game.

It will be a classic, but, after breaking it down and listening to my mind and gut, I think DeShaun Watson will have his finest hour on that field in Tampa Bay. Go ahead, Clemson. Party like it's 1981.


Clemson 34, Alabama 28

Clemson Tigers, 2016 National Champions

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