Smeltz: Penn State-Michigan: 3 Keys to a Penn State victory

By: Joe Smeltzer

Photo courtesy of cbssports.com

Hello, all. After a losing heartbreaker at Northwestern, Penn State is back at Beaver Stadium for the first time in 3 weeks. Last week's bye week might prove to be vital, as the Nittany Lions have a tough foe coming into State College on Saturday in the 8-2 and #12 Michigan Wolverines. Let's break down what Penn State needs to do to foil Jim Harbaugh's first trip to Happy Valley as UM head coach in Joe Smeltzer's three keys to victory 

Key #1- Limit the big plays

Photo Creds to isportsweb.com

A key reason Penn State let the Northwestern game two weeks ago slip through the cracks was because they allowed too many big plays. The Penn State defense cannot allow Michigan's De'veon Smith to run all over them the way Northwestern's Justin Jackson did two weeks ago. The Special Teams unit cannot let another kickoff  be returned for a touchdown like they did at Northwestern when Solomon Vault took one 96 yards to the house. Any mistake made in an even matchup like this could prove to be fatal, and I believe that Penn State's defense is too talented to have another game like the one in Evanston. I'll even go as far as to predict that Penn State will force Michigan's talented QB, Jake Rudock, to throw at least one interception that will have an effect on the outcome of this game.

Likelihood of Executing: Solid 

Key #2:  Make enough big plays on offense 

Photo creds to zimbio.com

Michigans defense is the backbone of their team, as they are 8th in the nation in run defense and 2nd in defensive pass efficiency. Penn States defense has been excellent as well, so there should not be too many offensive fireworks to speak of on Saturday afternoon. The key for Penn State is to make just enough plays on offense to come away with a W. In what could be his last game at Beaver Stadium, Christian Hackenberg will want to go out with a bang. Doing that against Michigans secondary will be much easier said than done, however. If the PSU defense plays the way it should, I think that the Lion offense will need to put up at least 21 points to win this game. With all of the weapons that Penn State has offensively, this is not a big stretch. However, this offense is also known for underperforming at times, and that cannot happen if the Nittany Lions want to get James Franklin his first win against a top 25 team. 

Likelihood of Execution: Moderate

Key #3: Go out with a bang 

Photo Courtesy of pennlive.com

Saturday will be Penn State's final home game of the 2015 season. For the seniors, it will be the last time they will ever play at Beaver Stadium. For the underclassmen, it will be the last time they will get a chance to play in front of 107,000 screaming fans for close to a year. No matter who Penn State would be playing tomorrow, it would be a game of added importance, and the fact that it is Michigan coming in will make the whole experience even more meaningful. Penn State owes it to themselves to leave everything on the field Saturday because it will be their last chance to do so on their home field until 2016, if ever. Penn State should use these circumstances as motivation to perform at their highest possible level. No matter what happens to Michigan on Saturday, every single player on that team will get to run out of the tunnel at the Big House at least one more time. For Penn State, this will be it. I expect the Nittany Lions to give it everything they have on Saturday, and the result will take care of itself.

Likelihood of Execution: High

Final Prediction
I expect this to be a close game that will showcase both teams defenses, but due to the game being at Beaver Stadium and the emotions of senior day, combined with the crave for redemption after that awful Northwestern loss, I predict a close Penn State victory. Expect a big play from Jason Cabinda on defense and a sharp enough Christian Hackenberg on offense to both contribute to a close Penn State win.

Penn State 21, Michigan 17